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000
AGNT40 KWNM 190515
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
115 AM EDT SUN 19 MAY 2013

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...A HIGH PRES RIDGE IS LOCATED OVR THE ERN PARTS OF THE
OFF WTRS EARLY THIS AM PER THE LATEST ASCAT AND OSCAT DATA AND
OBS OVR THE SW N ATLC. A STRNY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NC COAST SE
TOWARD BERMUDA. AN AREA OF SE WINDS AROUND 20 KT IN NOTED JUST N
OF THE FRONT OVR THE CENTRAL NT2 OFF WTRS...WITH WINDS GNRLY LESS
THAN 20 KT ELSEWHERE. THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT E AND SE THRU TNGT AS
THE FRONT LIFTS N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT. SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE LKLY
NR THE FRONT THRU TNGT. BEYOND TNGT THE MAIN WX FEATURE WILL BE A
LOW PRES AREA FCST TO MOVE SE FROM SE CANADA AND EMERGE TO THE E
OF THE OFF WTRS BY MON NGT. THIS LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT S OVR
NT1 WTRS MON...AND PSBLY INTO NRN NT2 WTRS TUE. THIS FRONT WILL
THEN STALL AND RETURN N AS A WARM FRONT WED INTO THU. THE NEXT
LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE E FROM THE GRT LKS AND MIDWEST
THU. A COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LKLY APPROACH THE
COAST THU NGT.

MODELS...OF THE AVAILABLE 00Z MDLS THERE IS GUD AGREEMENT THRU
SUN NGT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREV OPC FCST
AND 00Z GFS THRU SUN NGT FOR THE EARLY AM FCST PACKAGE. MDL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE FOR MON THRU THU OVR THE WTRS. THE 00Z GFS
REMAINS THE STRONGEST REGARDING THE LOW MOVG SE FROM SE CANADA
MON INTO TUE...ALTHO THE REMAINING NON-GFS SOLUTIONS DID SHOW A
TREND TOWARD THIS STRONGER SOLUTION. ANY GALES THAT FORM WITH
THIS LOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN E OF THE OFF WTRS MON INTO TUE.
WE WILL GNRLY FAVOR A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 00Z UKMET FOR MON
INTO THU OF THIS WK...OR SIMILAR TO THE 12Z SAT ECMWF. THIS
SOLUTION APPEARS TO FIT THE BEST WITH THE PREV OPC FCST. ALSO OF
NOTE...THE 00Z GFS BRINGS LOW PRES NE FROM FLORIDA INTO THE SRN
NT2 WTRS LATE THU AND THU NGT. AS WE ARE MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWING
THE 00Z UKMET MDL FOR THIS PACKAGE WE WILL NOT SHOW THIS LOW
IMPACTING THE SRN NT2 WTRS LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD. ALSO THIS
WILL GNRLY RESULT IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM THE PREV OPC FCST
FOR THE EARLY AM PACKAGE.

SEAS...THE 00Z MULTIGRID AND WNA WAVEWATCH MDL IS PERFORMING OKAY
OVR THE OFF WTRS CURRENTLY...ALTHO IT MAY BE A FT OR TWO ON THE
HIGH SIDE INITIALLY. OVERALL...WE WILL NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES TO
THE PREV FCST FOR THE EARLY AM PACKAGE...AND CONT TO BLEND THE
WV WATCH III MDL WITH THE LATEST ECMWF WAM WV GUID THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE MODEL...N/A.

.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.GULF OF MAINE...NONE.
.GEORGES BANK...NONE.
.SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...NONE.
.BALTIMORE CANYON TO HAGUE LINE...NONE.
.BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...NONE.
.HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...NONE.
.CAPE FEAR TO 31N...NONE.
$$

.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.