Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 221229
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
829 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

LATEST SFC OBS SHOWING WINDS GUSTING TO GALE FORCE IN THE GLF OF
ME AS LOW PRES SITS OVER SRN NT1 WATERS. SECOND LOW MOVING OFF
DELMARVA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NE
ACROSS THE NRN NT2 WATERS...WITH GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
SW QUAD OF THE LOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING ANY SIG CHANGES THE FCST/WARNINGS DURING THE
SHORT TERM.

SEAS...WNA VERSION OF WWIII WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF CURRENT OBS.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...LATEST LIGHTNING DATA AT 0640Z SHOWS SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER THE ERN AND CNTRL PARTS OF THE NT2 WTRS...AND ALSO ALG THE
NRN MID ATLC COAST. LOW PRES CNTRD OVER THE NE NT2 WTRS WILL MOVE
NE INTO THE NT1 AREA EARLY THIS MRNG...THEN DSIPT E OF CAPE COD BY
THIS AFTN. ANOTHER DVLPG LOW CNTRD OFF THE MID ATL CST WILL TURN
NE INTO THE NRN NT2 WTRS TODAY...PASS SLOWLY NE ACROSS THE SRN NT1
WTRS TONITE INTO EARLY FRI WHILE DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING...THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE NE LATER FRI INTO SAT WHILE MAINTAINING A TROF
OVER THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS. THE DVLPG LOW WILL PULL A COLD FNT
E ACROSS THE NT2 WTRS TONITE INTO THU. ANOTHER TROF WILL SWING SE
ACROSS THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS SAT NITE AND SUN. A HI PRES RDG
WILL SLOWLY BLD E INTO THE NT2 WTRS SAT NITE THRU SUN NITE.

MODELS...THE 00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VRY GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT
ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS DURING THE FCST PRD. THERE ARE SOME MINOR
TIMING DIFFS AMONG THE MED RNG MDLS...BUT THE GFS HAS BEEN VRY
CONSISTENT AND REPRESENTATIVE AND HAS STG SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF/UKMET SOLNS...SO WILL USE THE GFS 30M TO POPULATE THE WIND
GRIDS THRU THE FCST PRD. ONLY CHANGE PLANNED IS TO ADJUST THE GFS
30M WIND SPEEDS DOWNWARD BY 5 OR 10 KT IN GULF OF MAINE FOR LATE
TODAY INTO EARLY THU...SINCE THE GFS 30M HAS 45 KT WINDS HERE
WHICH IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE OTHER MDLS.

SEAS...THE 00Z MULTIGRID WW3 MDL AND 00Z ECMWF WAM GUIDANCE ARE
IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT THRU THE FCST PRD...WITH A FEW MINOR DIFFS
MAINLY DURING THE SAT THRU SUN NITE TIMEFRAME. WILL USE A 50/50
BLEND OF THE 00Z MWW3/ECMWF WAM FOR THE SEA HT GRIDS THRU THE
FCST PRD TO SMOOTH OUT THE DIFFS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...ESTOFS AND ETSS MDL GUIDANCE
SHOWS APPROX 1.0 TO 1.5 FT POS SURGE ALG NEW JERSEY CST FOR LATE
TODAY AND TONITE...AS STRENGTHENING NE FLOW PUSHES WATERS INTO
THE CST. ESTOFS IS ALSO SHOWING A POS SURGE OF ABOUT 1.0 FT IN THE
GLF OF MAINE FOR LATE TODAY AND TONITE...AS STRENGTHENING
EASTERLY FLOW ENTERS THE AREAS. ETSS LOOKS UNDERDONE WITH SURGE
EXPCTD FOR THE GLF OF MAINE.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE TODAY INTO THU.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE TONIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO THU.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE TODAY INTO THU.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO THU.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     GALE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE TONIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER ACHORN/SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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