Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 271902
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
202 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE 12Z MDLS REMAIN IN GOOD AGRMT THAT A
STRONG SFC HIGH WL SLOWLY TRANSLATE E TWDS THE MID ATLC COAST
THRU SAT NITE WHICH WL CAUSE A MOD TO STRONG NELY GRADIENT TO DVLP
ACRS THE SRN NT2 WTRS TONITE AND PERSIST INTO SUN. WITH THE 12Z
NAM/GFS/GEM RMNG CONSISTENT IN FCSTG SOLID 25-30 KT BL WINDS IN
THIS NELY GRADIENT...DUE TO THE COUNTERFLOW WL NOW GO AHEAD AND
INTRODUCE MARGINAL NELY GALES INVOF THE GULF STREAM ACRS THE SRN
ZONE ANZ835 WTRS SAT INTO EARLY SAT NITE. OTHERWISE DO NOT PLAN ON
MAKING ANY OTHER MAJOR CHNGS TO THE PREV OFSHR FCSTS THRU SUN AND
WL POPULATE OUR FCST WIND GRIDS WITH THE 12Z GFS 30M BL WINDS.
THEN AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE NRN MID ATLC COAST LATE
SUN NITE WL TRANSITION TO POPULATING WITH THE 12Z GFS 10M BL WINDS
ON SUN NITE.

IN THE LONG RANGE...IN GNRL THE 12Z MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGRMT THAT
THE COLD FRONT WL PUSH SE ACRS THE WTRS MON/MON NITE WHL AN
ATTENDANT SFC LOW INTENSIFIES E THEN NE OF THE NT1 WTRS. THE 12Z
GEFS MEAN INDICATES THAT THE 12Z GFS IS LKLY SLIGHTLY TOO SLOW
WITH BOTH THE FROPA AND THE ASCD ATTENDANT SFC LOW...WHICH IS ALSO
SEEN ON THE 12Z GEM/UKMET AND 12Z GEFS MEAN...BUT NOT SIGLY SO.
THEREFORE WL CONT TO POPULATE WITH THE 12Z GFS 10M BL WINDS EARLY
MON...THEN TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG ASCD COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND NEGATIVE STATIC STABILITY FCST IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FROPA WL TRANSITION TO POPULATING WITH THE STRONGER 12Z GFS 30M BL
WINDS LATE MON THRU MON NITE. ALSO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OTHER FASTER
MDLS WL TIME SHIFT THESE WINDS 3HRS FASTER AS A COMPROMISE.

THEN FURTHER OUT IN THE LONG RANGE...THE 12Z GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT VS ITS PREV RESPECTIVE RUNS IN FCSTG A STRONG WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NE ACRS THE WTRS TUE NITE INTO WED WITH A
STRENGTHENING ASCD SLY GRADIENT...FLWD BY A MOD STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVG OFSHR WED/WED NITE. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN THO INDICATES THAT THE
12Z GFS IS LKLY BRINGING ITS COLD FRONT OFSHR TOO QUICKLY WED/WED
NITE. THEREFORE TO BE MR IN LINE WITH THE LATEST WPC MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WL FAVOR THE LESS PROGRESSIVE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION ON
WED/WED NITE...WHICH IS ALSO SPRTD BY THE SLOWER 12Z GEM/UKMET. SO
AS A RESULT WL POPULATE OUR FCST WIND GRIDS WITH THE 12Z GFS 10M
BL WINDS TUE...THEN WL TRANSITION TO THE 12Z ECMWF BL WINDS FOR
TUE NITE THRU WED NITE.

.SEAS...THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND WL BE USED
TO POPULATE OUR SHORT TERM WAVE GRIDS THRU SUN. THEN WL USE A
50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III (TIME SHIFTED 3 HRS FASTER)
AND THE 12Z ECMWF WAM FOR SUN NITE THRU TUE. THEN WL TRANSITION TO
ALL 12Z ECMWF WAM FOR TUE NITE THRU WED NITE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...SMLR TO THEIR PREV RESPECTIVE
RUNS...AS THE ENELY GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ACRS THE SRN NT2 WTRS
TONITE INTO SUN THE 12Z ESTOFS RMNS CONSISTENT IN FCSTG A SMWHT
HIGHER SURGE TO DVLP ALONG THE S CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTS THAN
FCST BY THE 12Z ETSS WHICH LOOKS RSNBL.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE POSSIBLE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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