Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 050723
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
323 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...00Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FNT APRCHG THE NEW
ENG AND NEW JERSEY COASTS. A 1012 MB LOW WAS ANALYZED AT THE SE
COAST NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER...AND NHC HAS BEEN CARRYING THIS
FEATURE AS A LOW PROB DISTURBANCE WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DVLPG IN THE NXT 48 HRS. LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT DATA AT 0650Z
SHOWS A LINE OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SPANNING THE NT1 WTRS S OF NEW
ENG...WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF TSTMS JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. LATEST ASCATB-HI RES PASSES FROM FROM EARLIER TONITE WERE
SHOWING A WIDE SWATH OF S TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NRN
NT2 AND SRN NT1 WTRS...WITH ANOTHER SWATH OF 20 KT WINDS OVER THE
SRN NT2 WTRS. THERE WERE NO SHIP/BUOY OBS OR REMOTELY SENSED OBS
IN THE OFSHR WTRS ABOVE 25 KT LAST NITE.

MODELS...SOME OF THE MED RNG MDLS INDICATE THAT THE CAROLINA
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FNT AFTER IT MOVES NE OFF
OF CAPE HATTERAS ON WED OR WED NITE...WHILE OTHER MDLS SUGGEST
THAT THE LOW WILL DVLPG ALONG THE COLD FNT AS A SEPARATE ENTITY.
SINCE WE HAVE BEEN FCSTG THAT THIS LOW WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE
FNT...WILL GO WITH THIS TYPE OF SOLN AT LEAST FOR NOW. THE 00Z
MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS
INTO SAT...SO THE REPRESENTATIVE 00Z GFS 30M SOLN WILL BE USED TO
POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS OVER THIS TIMEFRAME. UNFORTUNATELY THE
MDLS ARE DIVIDED INTO TWO SIGNIF DIFFERING CAMPS FOR SAT NITE THRU
SUN NITE...WITH 00Z ECMWF/UKMET SHOWING A STG LOW MOVG NE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE...WHILE 00Z GEM/GFS SHOW A WEAKER AND SLOWER LOW
MOVG E NE AND PASSING JUST SE OF THE GEORGES BANK ZONES. LAST
THREE RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...SO
WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS FOR SAT NITE THRU SUN
NITE.

SEAS...WNA VERSION OF THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III MDL WILL BE USED FOR
THE SEA HT GRIDS FOR TODAY THRU SAT...THEN WILL SWITCH TO USING A
50/50 BLEND OF 00Z WNA WW3/ECMWF WAM FOR SAT NITE THRU SUN NITE
PRD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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