Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 240644
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
244 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THE NEW 00Z MDLS CONT TO FCST A MORE SUMMER-LIKE THAN SPRING TYPE
PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. AT THE UPR LVLS...THE
00Z MDLS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FCSTG AN UPR RIDGE TO BUILD TWDS THE
E COAST TODAY THRU TUE...THEN GRADLY FLATTEN OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST AND WEAKEN TUE NITE INTO THU NITE. AT THE SFC...THE 00Z MDLS
ALSO REMAIN IN RSNBLY GOOD AGRMT THAT A HIGH PRES RIDGE BCMG
ESTABLISHED W-E ACRS THE CNTRL NT2 WTRS TODAY...WL THEN REMAIN
QSTNRY THRU THU NITE...WHL GRADLY WEAKENING LATE. N OF THIS RIDGE
THE 00Z MDLS GNRLY AGREE THAT A MOD STRONG SWLY GRADIENT WL
FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN IN FCST STRENGTH FIRST IN RESPONSE TO A WARM
FROPA LATE MON INTO TUE...THEN AGAIN LATER TUE INTO THU IN
RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVES PASS N OF THE AREA.
SMLR TO THE PREV OFSHR FCST PACKAGES...AGAIN BELIEVE THAT THE 00Z
GFS SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE A RSNBL COMPROMISE FOR THE FCST STRENGTH
OF THIS SW GRADIENT BTWN THE STRONGER 00Z 4KM NAM/00Z GEM (WHICH
BOTH FCST SM GALE FORCE BL WINDS) AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER 00Z
UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE WL POPULATE OUR FCST WIND GRIDS
WITH THE WEAKER 00Z GFS 10M BL WINDS (TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR WHAT
SHULD BE MR LIMITED LOW LEVEL MIXING DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN THE SWLY GRADIENT ACRS THE COLD NRN OFSHR WTRS) FOR TODAY THRU
THU.

THEN ON THU NITE...SMLR TO ITS PREV 18Z RUN...THE 00Z GFS FCSTS
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SLIP S INTO THE NT1 WTRS. BASED ON THE
RELATIVELY ZONAL UPR LVL FLOW FCSTD THEN...AND TO BE MR IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...WL INSTEAD FAVOR THE
00Z UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS FRONT WITH IT STALLING FURTHER N
NR THE NRN MOST NT1 WTRS THU NITE. SO AS A RESULT WL TRANSITION TO
POPULATING OUR FCST WIND GRIDS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BL WINDS ON THU
NITE.

.SEAS...WITH THE DIFFERENCES BTWN THE TWO MDLS REMAINING MINIMAL
(GNRLY 1-2 FT ON AVERAGE)...WL POPULATE OUR FCST WAVE GRIDS WITH
A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III MDL AND 00Z ECMWF WAM FOR
TODAY THRU THU NITE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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