Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 220646
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
246 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE NEW 00Z MDLS PRESENT NO MAJOR FCST
PROBLEMS. THE MDLS SHARE SMLR FCST TIMING FOR A STNRY FRONT
PERSISTING W TO E ACRS THE NT2 WTRS INTO EARLY TONITE...THEN
DRIFTING S AS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SRN NT2 WTRS LATER TONITE INTO
SAT NITE WHL SVRL WEAK FRONTAL LOWS RIPPLE E ALONG THE FRONT. AS A
HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS S IN THE VCNTY OF THE NEW ENGLD COAST THE
00Z MDLS ALL FCST A MOD STRONG (PRIMARILY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE)
ENE GRADIENT TO DVLP N OF THE FRONT ACRS THE NT2 AND SRN MOST NT1
WTRS SAT/SAT NITE. WITH THEIR FCST GRADIENTS BEING VERY SMLR PLAN
ON USING A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS 30M AND 00Z ECMWF BL WINDS
THRUT THE SHORT TERM. SO AS A RESULT ANTICIPATE ONLY MINOR SHORT
TERM CHNGS WL BE MADE TO THE PREV OFSHR FCSTS.

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE 00Z GLOBAL MDLS GNRLY AGREE THAT THE
COLD FRONT WL PUSH S OF THE SRN NT2 WTRS SUN WITH THE MOD STRONG
(15-25 KT) ENELY GRADIENT OVERSPREADING ALL OF THE NT2 WTRS
SUN/SUN NITE AND THEN PERSISTING INTO MON/MON NITE. AGAIN WITH
THEIR FCST GRADIENTS RMNG SIMILAR...PLAN ON CONTG TO USE A 50/50
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS 30M AND 00Z ECMWF BL WINDS FOR SUN THRU MON
NITE.

THEN BY TUE INTO TUE NITE THE DISPARITY BTWN THE 00Z GLOBAL MDLS
CONTS IN RGRDS TO THEIR FCST TRACKS OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER THAN BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN ITS PREV
RESPECTIVE RUNS...THE 00Z GFS CONTS TO FCST ITS PSBL CYCLONE TO
TRACK NNE JUST TO THE SE OF THE NT2 WTRS BY LATE TUE/TUE NITE. THE
00Z GEM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN FCSTG THIS SYSTEM TO TRACK SIGLY
FURTHER S AND PASS NR SRN FL AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUE/TUE NITE. THE 00Z UKMET FCST TRACK IS SMLR TO THE 00Z GEM BUT
IS EVEN FURTHER S. VS ITS PREV 12Z RUN WHICH FCST THE CYCLONE INTO
THE CNTRL NT2 WTRS BY TUE NITE...THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
SIGLY SLOWER AND JUST FCSTS ITS CYCLONE INTO THE SE MOST NT2 WTRS
BY LATE TUE NITE WHICH IS SMLR TO THE 00Z GFS FCST TIMING...BUT
FURTHER W. FOR NOW WITH VERY LOW FCST CONFIDENCE... WL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE 00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT
WL CONT TO USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS 30M AND 00Z ECMWF BL
WINDS FOR TUE/TUE NITE.

.SEAS...SINCE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF WL BE USED
THRUT...WL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THEIR RESPECTIVE 00Z WAVEWATCH
III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM MDLS THRU TUE NITE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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