Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 232126
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
226 PM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.


MAIN WEATHER EVENT FOR THIS PERIOD IS LOW PRES FCST TO MOVE NE
ACROSS THE WASHINGTON OFFSHR WATERS TNGT...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THU
AND THU NGT. THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF SUPPORT MINIMAL GALES S OF THE
LOW TNGT AND INTO EARLY THU. CNFDC IS ONLY MODERATE AS THE GALE IS
MRGNL AND THE MODELS ARE TRENDING SLGTLY WEAKER WITH THIS LOW.

OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS
PROGRESSIVE FLOW...WITH ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS BETWEEN THE MODELS.
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ONLY BEGIN TO DISAGREE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPR PTTRN AMPFLYS.

MODELS ALL TAKE NEXT FRONT E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 40N SAT INTO
SAT NGT. CONSIDERED TAKING DOWN WINDS TO BELOW GALE...BUT EVEN THE
GFS 10M WINDS IN THE STABLE FLOW SHOW AREAS OF GALE FRC WINDS IN
THE SRLY FLOW JUST AHD OF THE FRONT...SO WL LEAVE GALES IN PLACE
WITH LOW TO MOD CNFDC. HOWEVER...GALES ARE A BIT MORE LIKELY
INSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES UP TO
THE COAST.

MODELS AGREE ON MOD NW WINDS OFF SRN CA PERSISTING THRU THU...AND
GRADU DMNSHG LATE THU AND THU NGT. AS THE PRG SFC HIGH W OF THE
WATERS MVS E THIS WEEKEND...EXCEPT NW WINDS TO INCRS AGAIN. GALE
FRC WINDS ARE QUITE PSBL...ESP NEAR THE CHANNEL ISLANDS... AS FCST
BY THE GFS. SINCE THE OTHER MODELS HV SLGTLY LOWER WINDS AND CNFDC
IS NOT THAT GOOD...WL CAP WINDS AT 30 KT FOR NOW.


.SEAS...THE MULTIGRID WAVE WATCH III INITLZD WELL...THOUGH IN GENERAL
SEAS ARE ABOUT 1 FT LOWER THEN MODEL GUESS. FCST GDNC LOOKS
RNSBL. THE MODELS FCST LONG PERIOD SRN HEMISPHERE SWELL ARRVNG IN
THE CALIFORNIA WATERS FRI NGT AND PERSISTING INTO SUN WITH SWELL
PERIOD OF 18 TO 23 SEC. THE ECMWF WAM DOES NOT SHOW THESE SRN
SWELLS...JUST THE WNW SWELLS THAT THE WW ALSO HAS. CHECKED OBS
OVER THE SOUTHER PACIFIC AND COULD NOT FIND ANY OBSRVTNS OF
SWELL...SO DFFCLT TO VERIFY WW SWELL FCST. USUALLY THE MODEL DOES
GOOD WELL SRN SWELL AND OVER FCST THE LRGR WRLY SWELL. JASON
ALTMTR PASS OVR THIS AREA IMPLIES THAT THE MODELS IS A LTTL FAST
WITH THE SWELLS.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH
AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO THU.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO THU.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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