Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGPN40 KWNM 211422
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
622 AM PST SAT JAN 21 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

Model agreement is fairly good with the current forecast so will
not make too many changes to the forecast. Will update the wave
heights to match with the current observations and will increase the
seas a few feet for the next 12 hours in the area of the highest
seas. Headlines will continue as is.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

Summary...06z opc preliminary surface analysis shows a strong low
centered just w of the pz5 area near 46n133w, with an associated
occluded front arcing roughly w to e across the washington
offshore waters. Latest available ascat hi-res and ascat passes
from earlier tonight show 25 to 35 kt winds in w to nw flow over
the outer zones of the nrn and central pz6 waters, with 20 to 25
kt winds in cyclonic flow over the washington offshore waters.
Lightning density product data at 0650z shows isolated showers
over the inner zones of the central pz6 waters.

Models...00z medium range models are in good overall agreement
across the offshore waters for today through mon, so the
consistent 00z gfs 30m looks representative enough to be used for
the wind grids over this timeframe. The 00z gfs is faster than the
other models with the low moving se over the pz6 area for mon
night through tue night, so the slower 00z ecmwf will be used for
mon night through the rest of the forecast period.

Seas...The 00z enp wavewatch and 00z ecmwf wam both did a good
job of initializing the sea heights in the coastal/offshore
waters, and these models are in decent agreement across the
offshore waters for most of the forecast period. In order to be
consistent with the preferred atmospheric models, will use the 00z
enp wavewatch for the sea height grids for today through mon, then
switch to using the 00z ecmwf wam for mon night through the rest
of the forecast period.

.Extratropical Storm Surge Guidance...Both estofs and etss are
showing a positive surge of about 1.0 to 1.5 feet in the
washington and oregon coastal waters for today into sun, which
appears to be reasonable.


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Storm Sunday.
     Gale Sunday night.
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale tonight.
     Storm Sunday.
     Gale Sunday night.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Storm tonight into Sunday.
     Gale Sunday night.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Storm tonight into Sunday.
     Gale Sunday night.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale today.
     Storm tonight.
     Gale Sunday into Sunday night.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale today.
     Storm tonight into Sunday.
     Gale Sunday night.
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale today.
     Storm tonight.
     Gale Sunday into Sunday night.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale today.
     Storm tonight.
     Gale Sunday into Sunday night.
     Gale Possible Monday into Monday night.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale today.
     Storm tonight.
     Gale Sunday.
     Gale Possible Monday into Tuesday.
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale today.
     Storm tonight.
     Gale Sunday into Sunday night.
     Gale Possible Monday into Tuesday.
.PZZ825...Inner Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Storm tonight.
     Gale Possible Monday into Tuesday.
.PZZ925...Outer Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale today.
     Storm tonight.
     Gale Possible Monday into Tuesday.
.PZZ830...Inner Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale tonight.
.PZZ930...Outer Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale tonight.
     Gale Possible Monday night into Tuesday.
.PZZ835...Inner Waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA...
     Gale tonight into Sunday.
.PZZ935...Outer Waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA...
     Gale tonight into Sunday.
.PZZ840...Inner Waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA...
     Gale tonight into Sunday.
.PZZ940...Outer Waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to 120W...
     Gale tonight into Sunday night.
     Gale Possible Monday.

$$

.Forecaster Sommerville/Scovil. Ocean Prediction Center.



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