Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 250323
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
823 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

THE SAT IMG SHOW MOST OF THE CONV OVR THE NW PARTS OF THE NRN AND
CNTRL REGIONS BUT MOST OF THE LGHTNG IS W OF THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRNT. THE RADAR HAS NO INDC OF TSTSTMS CELLS OVR MOST OF THE
REGION XCPT OVR THE FAR ERN PARTS OF THE WTRS ADJ TO WASH. AT 00Z
LOW PRES 988 MB WITH STORM FORCE WINDS IS 120 NM E OF THE CNTRL
REGION AND HAS ITS WARM FRNT STRETCHNG ACRS THE OREG WTRS WHILE
ITS ASSOCTD CLD FRNT STRETCHES S ACRS THE WRN PARTS OF THE NRN CAL
WTRS. THE PRES GRDNT IS FAIRLY TIGHT OVR THE CNTRL AND NRN WTRS.
THE OBS MAX WINDS ARE IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE OVR THE CNTRL
REGIONS. THE LAST ASCAT PASS AT 1742Z HAD STORM FORCE WINDS NW OF
THE REGION WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVR THE FAR WRN PARTS OF THE
CNTRL REGION. THE SEAS ARE HGHST WITH 15 FT PEAKS OVR TE AREAS
WITH HGHR WINDS. THE GLB MDLS HV INITIALIZED WELL AND THEY CONTNE
TO SHOW GUD AGRMNT ESPCLLY IN THE SHORT TERM AND SO WILL CONTINUE
LIKE IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO GO WITH GFS. IN THE SHORT TERM
THE LOW PRES W OF THE REGION WILL PASS ACRS THE CNTRL REGION THEN
MOVE NE INTO THE NRN WTRS AND FINALLY MOVE INLAND. ASCTD WITH THE
LOW PRES WILL BE THE WRM FRNT THAT WILL LIFT N AS THE CLD FRNT
MOVES ACRS THE CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. THE PRES GRDNT WILL BE QUITE
TIGHT AS THE FRNTL SYS MOVES ACRS THE WTRS AND THET WILL KEEP
ELEVATED WINDS THRU INTO THE XTNDD PRD.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRES ABOUT 500
NM W OF POINT REYES WITH OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING NE AND E...AND
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE N CA WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
COLD AIR CONTINUING TO POUR S WITH LIGHTNING DATA INDICATING A
NUMBER OF STRIKES JUST TO THE W OF SFC LOW.

THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z MON. THE MODELS
ARE ALL NOW VERY CLOSE WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSISTY OF LOW MOVING
THE CENTER INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE N CA OFFSHORE WATERS BY 12Z
SAT...THEN ACCELERATING NE OREGON OFFSHORE AND WASHINGTON COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE DAY SAT. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE WA/OR WATERS SAT NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE THEN
BUILDING INTO THE AREA SUN INTO EARLY MON. LOOKING AHEAD TO 12Z
MON AND BEYOND...THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS. IN FACT...THE GFS WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT INDICATED
SEVERAL LOWS W OF THE WA/OR WATERS MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON
YESTERDAY...AND THE OTHER MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN THAT
DIRECTION. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE GFS FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES EXPECTED FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE WA/OR OFFSHORE WATERS. IN SUMMARY...WILL POPULATE
GRIDS USING THE 30M GFS WINDS THROUGH 09Z SUN...THEN WILL USE GFS
10M WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN FEW
CHANGES TO EXISTING WARNING HEADLINES.

.SEAS...THE 18Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT OBSERVED SEAS
CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN A FT OF THE MWW3 FCST VALUES. SINCE WILL BE
USING THE GFS WINDS...WILL ALSO USE THE MWW3 VALUES THROUGHOUT.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO TUE.
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON.
.PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ920...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     STORM TONIGHT.
     GALE SAT.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     STORM TONIGHT.
     GALE SAT.
.PZZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS...
     GALE TONIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER MUSONDA/KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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