Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 301536
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
836 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

ATTM AM MAKING ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WND GRIDS MAINLY TO MOV
UP START OF GALES OFF PT ARENA INCLUDING ZONE 825 TO 00Z WED. THIS
IS DUE TO MODERATE SIGNAL FM NEWLY ARRIVED 12Z NAM AND 00Z UKMET
AND CMC GEM WITH UKMET CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MORE WDSPRD CVRG OF
30 KT 10M WNDS WHICH TEND TO BE A BIT LOW IN NLY FLOW. ALSO NW
WNDS IN NRN WTRS FOR START OF FIRST PRD APPR TO BE CLOSER TO 30M
GFS WNDS AND EVEN RECEIVED A 12Z SHIP WITH NW 25 KT IN WA WTRS AND
EARLIER ASCAT WNDS ARND 20 KT.

IN LATER PRDS GFS LOOKS A BIT FAST TAKING A FNTL WAVE NE TO W AND
NW OF PZ5 WTRS...BUT IN SPITE OF TIMING ISSUES MDLS SHOW SIMILAR
CONDS IN NRN WTRS WITH WNDS JUST BARELY REACHING 30 KT IN SW FLOW
IN NW WTRS BEFORE APCHG FNT WKNS SAT...SO SEE NO NEED TO
REPOPULATE WNDS AND WL CONT TO FAVOR 00Z GFS 10M WNDS IN SW FLOW.

SEAS...OUTPUT FM 00Z NWW3 LOOKS RSNBL AND CLOSE TO ECMWF WAM IN
SPITE OF TIMING DIFFERENCES OF SYSTEMS MOVING NW OF WTRS INTO GLF
OF AK AFTER THU...WITH HIGHEST CONDS EXPECTED IN NW WA WTRS FRI
INTO FRI NIGHT.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LATEST SCAT PASS FROM 05Z INDICATES MAINLY NW WINDS 10-20 KT
ACROSS ENTIRE OFFSHORE WATERS...ALTHOUGH LARGE SWATH OF MISSING
DATA OVR MUCH OF CA WATERS. LARGE SWATH OF 25-30 KT WINDS ARE
OCCURING OVR GLFAK W OF 140W IN BROAD NW FLOW. SEAS IN THAR AREA
ARE ALSO RUNNING A FEW FT HIGHER THATN WW3. RECENT OBS SHOW WAVE
HGTS GENERALLY 5-9 FT OVER WATERS. THE OVERALL PATTERN HASNT
CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE FORECAST FROM
ALL THE MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTANT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL OCCUR ALONG THE CENTRAL
AND NRN CA CST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO TIGHTEN AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS PTNS OF
THE INNER CA OFFSHORE WATERS. WHEN POP THE GRIDS WILL USE THE 10M
GFS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THE EXCEPTION BEING OVR THREE OF THE
INNER CA OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST.
ACROSS THAT REGION I WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 10M GFS AND 30M
GFS...IN ORDER TO BUMP UP THE WINDS A BIT. WILL ALSO FURTHER
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY IN ORDER TO REACH GALE OVER THAT AREA. THE
WAVE OUTPUT FROM THE WW3 GENERALLY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD THROUGHOUT
AND LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE TODAY INTO WED.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE TODAY INTO WED.
.PZZ830...INNER WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS...
     GALE TONIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER BANCROFT/SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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