Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGPN40 KWNM 071003
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
203 AM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

00Z MDLS LOOK SIMILAR AND IN GOOD AGRMT INTO MON NIGHT WITH AN
UPR RDG AND SFC RDG DOMINANT AND BCMG REESTABLISHED AFTER INITL
DEPARTURE OF A WARM FRONT N OF WATERS LATER TODAY. 0438Z AND 0620Z
ASCAT-A PASSES RETURNED A BAND OF SE WINDS 30 KT AHD OF WARM
FRONT OVR AND JUST W OF NW PZ5 WTRS WITH GALES JUST TO NW OF WTRS.
ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS IN SFC RDG. THESE WNDS ARE CLOSE
TO 00Z GFS 10M WINDS WHICH SHOW WINDS INTO LOW 30S FAR NW AT 06Z.
THEREFORE NEW FCST COULD START WITH WINDS 25 TO AS HIGH AS 30 KT
FAR NRN WTRS EARLY TODAY WITH WARM FRONT. OTW SFC HIGH PRES RDG
WL BUILD IN FM THE E OVR PZ5 WTRS TODAY INTO MON AND OVR THE CA
WTRS. MDLS DVLP SOME DIFFERENCES ESPCLY W OF WTRS BY TUE WITH SOME
EFFECT ON OFSHR WTRS...WITH 00Z GFS AGAIN LOOKING TOO STRONG WITH
SLY FLOW OVR THE WA/OR WTRS WHILE A STRONG UPR RDG IS OVR THE WRN
US AND WRN CANADA. OTHER MDL GUID LIKE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF IS NOT
QUITE AS STG. WL LIMIT WINDS TO 25 KT IN THE PZ5 WTRS WITH A 50/50
BLEND BTWN 00Z ECMWF AND STRONGER GFS. 00Z CMC GLOBAL ALSO LOOKS
TOO STRONG WITH A PTRN AND SFC LOW W OF WTRS OTRW SIMILAR TO
ECMWF. BY WED AN UPR SHRTWV LIFTS NE ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPR RDG
OVR INLAND AREAS...THE FIRST IN A SERIES AND WILL BE ASCD WITH A
SERIES OF WKNG CDFNTS AFFECTING MAINLY PZ5 WTRS. WINDS BASED ON
10M FOR SLY FLOW ARE SIMILAR IN MDLS WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
NOTED IN PASSING SHRTWVS AND SFC FNTS. AFTER AFOREMENTIONED MODEL
BLEND WILL TRANSITION TO 00Z ECMWF FOR WED AND BEYOND WHICH LOOKS
LIKE GOOD COMPROMISE ON TIMING OF FNTS WITH 10M WNDS OTRW SIMILAR
IN MDLS...AND ALSO CLOSE TO LATEST WPC DAY 3-5 GUIDANCE. WL HAV
WINDS TO 25 KT OR 30 KT INADVOF CD FNTS...STRONGEST OUTER PZ5 WTRS
WITH A FNT MOVG TWD PZ5 WTRS LATER WED BEFORE WKNG. ANOTHER FNT
WILL APPROACH AND MOV INTO THE WA/OR/NRN CA WTRS THU AND THU NGT
AS UPR RDG MOVS FURTHER INLAND. PREFER THE UKMET/ECMWF OVR THE GFS
WHICH ONCE AGAIN SHOWS A DVLPG LOW WITH GALES APPROACHING THE
OREGON WTRS LATE THU.

SEAS...WL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z MULTIGRID WWIII AND ECMWF
WAM THRU 12Z WED WITH SEAS ACRS THE OFFSHR IN OTRW CLOSE AGRMT.
GUID DOES SHOW AREAS TO THE W OF THE OFFSHR WTRS BECOMG MORE OUT
OF SYNC LATE TUE INTO WED...ALTHO DIFFS DO NOT PROPAGATE INTO
WTRS. WL USE THE ECMWF WAM AFT 12Z WED...SINCE 00Z ECMWF BEING
FAVORED WITH WINDS IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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