Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 231411
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
711 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

THE 12Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED OVER THE N AND CENTRAL CA WATERS
EXTENDING SW AND W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LARGE AREA OF COLD
AIR CU OVER THE WA/OR WATERS EXTENDING SW...WITH LIGHTNING DATA
INDICATING A NUMBER OF STRIKES OVER THE WA AND N OR OFFSHORE
WATERS. DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z SAT. BEYOND THAT...THE 06Z GFS HAS
TRENDED FURTHER N WITH STRONG LOW TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER FRI AND
SAT. THE 06Z GFS TAKES THE LOW INTO THE N OREGON WATERS...WHILE
THE 00Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF HAVE THE LOW FURTHER S OVER THE N CA
WATERS. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT USED THE 00Z GFS...AND THIS STILL LOOKS
GOOD. DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS...MAINLY TO AFFECT THE WA/OR WATERS LATER
MON. THE 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED MUCH WEAKER WITH THE WINDS FOR MON
NIGHT. THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF WERE VERY CLOSE WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW AND THE FROPA JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL POPULATE
GRIDS USING THE 00Z ECMWF STARTING 00Z MON THROUGH THE END OF THE
FCST PERIOD. THE 12Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE
OBSERVED SEAS WERE WITHIN A FT OF THE MWW3 FCST VALUES.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...


THE IR SAT IMG GOES-W STILL SHOWS CONV CLDS NR AND AHEAD OF A
FRNT ACRS THE CNTRL REGION WITH SOME LIGHTNG BEHIND THE FRNT
MAINLY OVR THE NW OF THE NRN WTRS. THE RADAR STILL HAS SOME TSTMS
OVR THE CNTRL REGION. AT 06Z LOW PRES 997 MB OVR CANADA JUST NW
WASH STATE XTNDS A CLD FRNT S THEN SW ACRS THE CNTRL REGIONS. AN
AREA OF LOW PRES WITH SEVRL CNTRS OF LOW PRES STRETCHES SE FROM
THE MAIN LOW PRES 980 MB IN THE GLF OF AK THRU THE LOW PRES OVR
THE NE WTRS INTO INLAND LOW PRES 1004 MB OVR WASH/OREG STATES.
WEAK HGH PRES RIDGE W OF THE SRN WTRS XTNDS ACRS THE SRN WTRS. THE
PRES GRDT HAS RELAXED OVR THE NRN WTRS INCLUDING THE NRN CAL WTRS.
THE MAX OBS WINDS HV NOW DIMINISHED TO BELOW GALE FORCE OVR THE
NRN WTRS. THE LATST ASCAT PASS AT 0544Z CVRD MOST OF THE REGION
AND HAS NO INDC OF GALE FORCE WINDS.

THERE IS SIG ENERGY UPSTREAM THAT IS HEADING THE OFFSHR WTRS AND
WILL IMPACT THE NRN REGION OVR THE WKEND. THE TROF SEEM QUITE DEEP
ALOFT AND THAT IS LIKELY TO ELEVATE THE PRES GRDNT OVR THE REGION
AND SO WILL GO WITH ANY MDL THAT WILL SUPPORT STRNGR WINDS SAT.

THE GLBL MDLS THO STREAMING INTO OUR SYSTEM SLOWLY...HAVE SHOWN
SOME DECENT AGRMNT OVR THE SHRT TERM AND SO WILL GO WITH GFS FOR
THIS FCST. IN THE SHORT TERM LOW PRES OVR THE N-ERN WTRS WILL MOVE
INLAND AND THE HGH TO THE W OF THE SRN WTRS WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN
IN THE SAME VCNTY. THE CLD FRNT WILL MOVE SE ACRS THE CNTRL REGION
AND WEAKEN. ANOTHER LOW PRES WILL FORM OVR THE ERN PAC AND MOVE
TWD THE CNTRL REGION WITH A STRNG CLD FRNT.

.SEAS....THE SEAS RANGE BTWN 12 AND 15 FT OVR THE NRN WTRS AND 8
TO 12 FT OVR THE SRN WTRS. THE LAST JASON PASS AT 0628Z INDC HGHR
SEAS OVR THE NRN WTRS REACHING 14 FT. THE NWW3 MULTI GRID FITS
WELL WITH THE OBSVD SEAS PATTERN AND SO WILL GO WITH IT. THE SEAS
WILL SUSBSIDE LATER TODAY BUT WILL REBUILD OVR THE WEEKND ESPCLY
OVR THE CNTRL PRES REGION.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.PZZ920...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.PZZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.PZZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.

$$

.FORECASTER KOSIER/MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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