Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 260825
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
125 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRI...AND
THEN SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND THE ERN N PACIFIC OCEAN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS THE PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION FINALLY BEGINS
TO CHANGE.

SHORT TERM...A 0600Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED 30 KT WINDS OVR NE CALIF
OFF WTRS WITH THE PASS UNFORTUNATELY MISSING MOST OF THE COASTAL
WTRS. THE 06Z PRELIM OPC SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED 1029 MB HIGH PRES
CENTERED NR 40N137W...WITH SEVERAL LOW PRES AREAS LOCATED FROM SW
CANADA S TO CENTRAL CALIF. MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO THE W
AND NW OF THE HIGH PRES AREA WERE WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE PUSH E INTO THE STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE W OF THE
WTRS AND LOWER PRESSURES NR THE COAST AND INLAND WILL DOMINATE
CONDITIONS RIGHT THROUGH THU. WE WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS
10M AND 30M WINDS WHICH HAS BEEN USED IN THE PREV FEW OPC FCSTS
FOR THE EARLY AM PACKAGE...AND MAKE A FEW MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS
TO MAINTAIN THE PREV HEADLINES. OVERALL...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM
THE PREV FCST APPEARS NEEDED FOR THE EARLY AM PACKAGE.

LONG TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH PZ5 WTRS FROM THE NW
THU...THEN PASS SE OVR THESE WTRS THU NITE...WITH THE FRONT THEN
LKLY DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES FURTHER S FRI AND FRI NITE. THE HIGH
TO THE W OF THE WTRS WILL RETREAT SLOWLY W AND STRENGTH SOME THU
INTO SAT NITE. SFC PRESSURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW OVR THE
WRN STATES THU INTO SAT NITE. AS A RESULT...THE PRES GRAD WILL
REMAIN RATHER STRONG ESPEC OVR NRN CALIF AND SRN OREG OFF WTRS
DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. THE 00Z GLBL MDLS REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVR THE WTRS THRU SAT NITE. WE WILL CONT TO
POPULATE THE FCST WITH THE 00Z GFS 10M-30M BLEND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREV FEW FCSTS FOR THE EARLY AM OPC
PACKAGE.

FCST CONFDC AND TROPICAL WX...FCST CONFDC WILL REMAIN NR TO ABV
AVEARGE OVR THE WTRS THRU SAT NITE AS THE 00Z MDLS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OVR THE WTRS THRU THE PERIOD. T.S. FRANK AND HURCN
GEORGETTE REMAIN WELL S AND SW OF THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNING.
BOTH ARE FCST TO TRACK TOWARD THE W-NW AND WEAKEN OVR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE OFF WTRS EXPECTED.
FOR ADTL DETAILS PLS REFER TO THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES.

SEAS...BOTH THE 00Z ENP WV WATCH III AND ECMWF WAM MDLS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SEA HEIGHTS RANGE FROM NR 12
FT OVR AND NR THE GALE WNG AREA TO 5 FT OR SO OVR SE SOCAL AND NW
WASH WTRS PER THE LATEST OBS OVR THE REGION. WE WILL CONT TO RELY
ON THE 00Z ENP WW3 MDL GUID FOR THE EARLY AM PACKAGE...WITH NO
MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREV FEW OPC FCSTS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO SAT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO WED NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO SAT NIGHT.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE TODAY.

$$

.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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