Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 200319
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
719 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

GOES IR IMGRY AND THE LTST NCEP SFC ANALYS INDC A LOW PRES SYS
JUST W OF THE OFSHR WTRS...AND ASCAT FM 20Z INDC GALES WITH THE
SYS. THE 18Z GFS/NAM AND 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/NAM/GEM ALL AGREE THAT
THE SYS WL MOV NEAR THE COAST BY 12Z SAT...AND INCRS THE WNDS IN
THE CHANNELING FLOW BTWN THE FRNT AND THE COAST...AS WELL IN THE
STG CAA S OF THE LOW. THE GFS INDC STORM FRC N OF THE AREA...AND
THE REST OF GUID IS WKR. THE GFS HAS BEEN HANDLG EVENTS INVOLVING
CHANNELING FLOW ABT THE BEST IN THE RECENT PAST...SO PREFERRING TO
FLW THE 12Z GFS 30M WNDS INTO SAT NGT. THIS INCRS WNDS TO GL FRC
OVR THE OFSHR WTRS...AND LOOKS CONSISTENT WTIH THE PREV FCST...SO
WL CONT IN THE UPDATE PKG.

OTRW...BIGGEST FCST PRBLMS RMN IN THE EXTENDED...WITH THE GFS RMNG
A STG OUTLIER WITH A LOW PASSING TO THE NW OF THE WAS WTRS MON
INTO TUE...AND THE 12Z ECWMF A STG OUTLIER WITH A LOW PRES SYS
MOVG INTO THE PZ6 WTRS BY WED. THE PREV FCST FLWD THE GFS...WHICH
AGREES SOMEWHAT WITH THE REST OF THE GUID ON THE SYNOP PTTN...SO
WL TONE DN WND INTSTY ON MON NGT INTO TUE AS A CMPRMS. ALSO...GFS
IS A BIT BETTER WITH THE WNDS INTNSTY ON WED...SO WL FLW.

SEAS...PREV FCST FAVORED 12Z ECWMF WAM...WHICH WAS INIT A BIT
BETTER OVER THE E PAC AT 00Z...SO NOT PLANNING ON MKG MAJOR
CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE VERY FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EPAC N OF
40N DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. SAT PIX INDICATE THE NEXT FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR 140W
ATTM. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IT IS UNDERSTANDABLE THAT
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS...AND THAT
IS THE CASE HERE. THROUGH TONIGHT I WILL POP THE WAVE GRIDS USING
THE ECMWF...WHICH IS DOING A BETTER JOB HANDLING THE INITIAL SWELL
CROSSING THE WATERS. AFTER 12Z SAT THE WW3 SEEMS REASONBLE GIVEN
THE PATTERN AND WILL BY MY MODEL OF CHOICE. IN ORDER TO KEEP SOME
CONTINUITY I WILL POP THE WIND GRIDS USING THE 10M GFS...WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT AS FRONT PINCHES THE CST. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO
HAVE CHANGEED FROM THE PRV RUN AND NOW INDICATES A STRONG LOW
MOVING TOWARD VANISL SAT. PREFER THE WEAKER GFS...WHICH IS SIMILAR
TO THE PRIOR RUN. NOT MANY CHANGES EXPECTED ACROSS THE CA WATERS
AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM EARLY IN PERIOD...THEN COASTAL TROF FORMS
ALONG THE CENTRAL CST.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...NA.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE TONIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER KELLS/SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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