Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 301520
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
820 AM PDT THU 30 OCT 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

SHIP JUST N OF INNER PZZ800 WATERS WHICH REPORTED 43 KT AT 12Z
IS GOOD REPORTER WITH MEAN WIND SPEED ERROR AROUND 4 KT. BASED
ON LATEST OBS AND 13Z RAP WILL ALLOW GALE WARNING OVER THESE
WATERS TO EXPIRE WITH NEXT PZ5 ISSUANCE. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE E AND SE THROUGH PZ6 WATERS
TODAY THROUGH FRI...WITH N TO NW SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH SHARPLY
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF DIGGING SE INTO SRN CA WATERS LATE FRI
INTO SAT. GFS BOUNDARY LAYER OR 30M WINDS UP TO 25 OR 30 KT ARE
SUPPORTED BY 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET. GIVEN ABOVE AVERAGE
AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND PLAN WILL CONTINUE WITH GFS WINDS
THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE MORE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT MON BUT GFS IS HIGHER WITH PRE FRONTAL
WINDS. PLAN TO USE 50/50 BLEND OF LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FROM MON
ONWARD. 00Z UKMET LIKE THE GFS HINTS AT PRE FRONTAL GALES MON.
DO NOT YET HAVE FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY GALES AT THIS
TIME AS GFS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WITH GALES ARE LIKELY SOMEWHAT
OVERDONE.

BUOY 46207 JUST NW OF VANCOUVER ISLAND REPORTED 19 FT AT 13Z
WHICH WAS 4 TO 5 FT HIGHER THAN BOTH MULTIGRID WAVEWATCH III OR
ECMWF WAVE MODEL AS THEY OFTEN TIMES HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH SIG WV
HGTS DURING THESE CHANNELING EVENTS. OVER OFFSHORE WATERS MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE WITH SEA STATE AND ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PER PREFERENCE FOR GFS/ECMWF
BLEND MON THROUGH WED WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH SIG WV HGTS AND
POPULATE WITH BLEND AS WELL.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER CLARK. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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