Snow Avalanche Guidance
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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035
FWUS45 KMSO 111113
SAGMSO

Backcountry Forecast for western Montana and north central Idaho
National Weather Service Missoula MT
413 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

DISCUSSION: A change is finally on our doorstep, as the region
transitions to a more active, wetter pattern. To start, showers
will overspread northwest Montana later today through tonight,
while snow levels rise to 6000 feet and higher. A few stray
showers could make it to parts of west central Montana and north
central Idaho, but overall the best focus will remain across
northwest Montana. This will change Friday through Saturday as a
cold front crosses the entire Northern Rockies and precipitation
becomes more widespread with time. Snow levels will then drop to
below 5000 feet by Saturday, changing rain to snow for mid slopes
and high terrain. Some snow may make it to the lowest elevations,
but confidence is not great at this time.

A few notes: this system has sped up from previous model runs, and
depending on how fast or slow snow levels rise today and Friday
will ultimately decide how much snow falls, and where it falls.
This is an inherently difficult forecast, so please stay abreast
to future updates.

&&
Elevations above 4,000 FT:

                      Today        Tonight      FRI
Cloud Cover           75%          90%          90%
Hi/Lo Temps           36 to 45     26 to 33     36 to 47
Winds(mph)            SW  7G21     S  5G15      SW  7G20
Precip Chc            0            60           70
Precip Type           snow         sno/rain     sno/rain
Liquid Amt            0.00         0.07         0.13
Snow Ratio(SLR)       12:1         12:1         12:1
Snow Amt(in)          0            0-1          1-2

Snow Level            5000         5500         6000

$$



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