Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS48 KWNS 220840
SWOD48
SPC AC 220839

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX
IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN SRN ROCKIES AT 12Z/FRI WILL CREST THE NRN
GREAT PLAINS RIDGE...BEFORE TURNING SEWD AND AIDING IN THE
BROADENING OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BY MON. WITH A
STOUT MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA...THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES.

MID-LEVEL WLYS OVER THE N-CNTRL STATES ON FRI SHOULD BECOME NWLY BY
SUN WITH A RIBBON OF STRONG FLOW BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING
RIDGE/TROUGH. THIS SHOULD OVERLAP PARTS OF THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR AND
ERN PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS EML PLUME OVER THE CORN BELT TO
MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY. AT LEAST MINIMAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE
APPARENT IN D4-6...BUT MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY IN THIS TIME FRAME
IS MUCH TOO LOW TO RELIABLY DELINEATE A 30 PERCENT OR GREATER AREA.

..GRAMS.. 07/22/2014


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