Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 010904
SWOD48
SPC AC 010903

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NWRN U.S. WILL
SLOWLY ADVANCE THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES DAYS 4-5...AND FINALLY INTO
THE NRN PLAINS DAY 6...THOUGH SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
DO EXIST.

DAY 4-5 /FRI-SAT/...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT NEWD
AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS IN VICINITY OF
A SLOW MOVING COLD/STATIONARY FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN THE POST FRONTAL REGION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN WHERE TO
PLACE A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.

DAY 6 /SUN/...THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE NRN
PLAINS SUNDAY...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DEEPER FORCING
AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN POST FRONTAL.
NEVERTHELESS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AND SOME OF THE
STORMS MIGHT BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HOWEVER...TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES OF AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS LIKELIHOOD OF
ONGOING STORMS INDICATE LOW PREDICTABILITY.

..DIAL.. 09/01/2015


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