Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 270824
SWOD48
SPC AC 270823

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE EARLY
HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WRN U.S. TROUGH/LOW MIGRATE SWD IN
THE DESERT SW AND THEN EWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES.  MEANWHILE BROAD
CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.  COOL/STABLE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL AND SERN
U.S.

BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...MODELS SHOW THE WRN U.S. TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE PLAINS STATES.  IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS AS
IMPLIED BY SOME MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES...AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENSUE DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS DUE TO MODEL DISPERSION CONCERNING
AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL DEFER THE
NOTION OF INTRODUCING A HIGHLIGHTED AREA TO LATER OUTLOOKS.

..SMITH.. 12/27/2014


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