Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 280858
SWOD48
SPC AC 280857

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF 15-PERCENT
PROBABILITY AREAS FOR THE DAY 4-6 /TUESDAY-THURSDAY/ PERIOD OWING IN
PART TO LIKELY UNRESOLVABLE MESOSCALE FACTORS THAT MAY EXERT A LARGE
INFLUENCE ON WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
NONETHELESS...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE N-CNTRL U.S. ON TUESDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND SOME
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.  THIS REGIME FEATURING THE
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
PERHAPS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.  A POTENTIAL STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK MAY DEVELOP FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD
ALONG/NEAR A COLD FRONT INTO THE OH-MS RIVER VALLEYS /DAYS 5-6/.
FARTHER S...MODEST MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW OVERTOP A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER IN PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS MAY YIELD SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID-LEVEL LOW OPENS/WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS
EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES ON DAY 4 /TUESDAY/.  YET...PREDICTABILITY
WITH THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO NOT
HIGHLIGHT AN AREA AT THIS TIME. BEYOND THE DAY 6 TIMEFRAME...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE IN THE WRN U.S. AND LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A LESS-FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

..SMITH.. 05/28/2016


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