Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 200908
SWOD48
SPC AC 200907

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Model guidance is in relatively good agreement that the mature
cyclone traversing the central Plains and middle MS valley over the
weekend and Monday will weaken and become more progressive on
Tuesday, opening up as it moves through the upper Great Lakes and
Northeast. Thunderstorms are possible ahead of this system across
portions of the VA Piedmont into the VA Tidewater Tuesday morning.
Given the strength of the flow, a few of these storms may be severe.
However, uncertainty regarding occurrence and coverage is too low to
delineate any outlook areas.

By mid-week, southern-stream shortwave trough will move slowly
across the southern Plains while upper ridging progresses across the
remainder of the Plains and MS Valley. Moisture return ahead of the
system expected to move into the Plains late Friday is now progged
to be more stunted than in previous guidance, largely a result of
more persistent surface ridging across the eastern CONUS. Based on
the most recent guidance, low severe thunderstorm potential exists
from Tuesday through Saturday.

..Mosier.. 01/20/2018



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