Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS48 KWNS 280834
SWOD48
SPC AC 280832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day4/Fri - Southeast states
The same upper trough that will affect the southern plains and MS
Valley this week will progress into the southeast states on Friday.
Model guidance agrees on moving the main trough axis across parts of
GA/SC and north FL during peak heating, where dewpoints in the lower
60s will promote sufficient instability for a risk of severe storms.
 Forecast soundings also show favorable winds aloft for storm
organization and maintenance.

...Day5/Sat - Western OK/TX...
Moisture will stream back northwestward ahead of the next upper
system on Saturday.  Most model solutions agree on dryline
development during the afternoon over parts of western OK into
west-central TX, providing the focus for scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms.  The UKMET/GEM indicate a cold front sagging into the
region, lessening confidence in the risk over northwest OK and
southwest KS.

...Day6/Sun - TX/LA...
The same upper trough from day5 will continue to deepen over the
southern High Plains, with rich gulf moisture in place across
central and southeast TX.  Model solutions begin to diverge on the
details of the surface features at this range, but the combination
of strong CAPE and ample moisture beneath favorably strong cyclonic
flow aloft provides sufficient confidence in a 15% probability area.

...Day7/Mon and Day8/Tue...
Beyond Day6, model consistency is too low to warrant outlook areas
over the southern states.

..Hart.. 03/28/2017


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