Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 220837
SWOD48
SPC AC 220836

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMING PROGRESSIVE THIS WEEKEND OVER THE CONUS.  MODELS
SHOW A TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST AND TOWARDS THE CNTRL
STATES DURING THE WEEKEND.  MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
ADVANCE NWD IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY.
MODELS SIGNAL AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE WRN U.S. TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  DESPITE A LONGER WINDOW OF TIME FOR MOISTURE MODIFICATION TO
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SECOND MID-LEVEL WAVE...THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WRN GULF BASIN AND COASTAL TX/LA PRIOR TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUGGEST WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY REGIONS.

..SMITH.. 10/22/2014



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