Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 291946
SWODY1
SPC AC 291944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FROM THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO
WISCONSIN AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS.  ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM PARTS OF
ERN MT AND NWRN ND. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES.. 08/29/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A BROAD/WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  VISIBLE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A SMALLER-
SCALE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX OVER EASTERN KS...WHICH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX OVER
PARTS OF MO/IA/IL AND SOUTHEAST MN.  DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE MODERATE CAPE VALUES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.  SLIGHTLY COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
INCREASE THE RISK OF HAIL IN THE MORE INTENSE STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA AS WELL.  THE MAIN RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH SOON AFTER SUNSET.



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