Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 301242
SWODY1
SPC AC 301240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS MT/ND BORDER AREA...

...SUMMARY...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG THE
MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AREA.

...SYNOPSIS...
OUTSIDE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW ENTERING NORTHERN CA...MODEST MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL
GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WELL SOUTH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN ONTARIO TOWARDS
JAMES BAY. GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED WHERE STORMS ARE MOST
PROBABLE TODAY FROM THE MIDWEST TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
GULF COAST STATES. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND.

...MT/ND BORDER AREA...
A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL OR TWO SHOULD EXIST
THIS EVENING WITH LOW PROBABILITY STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. IN SPITE OF BEING IN PROXIMITY TO THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WINDS THIS EVENING. RESULTANT WAA MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS BETWEEN 00-03Z. WHETHER THIS OCCURS IS
UNCERTAIN AS ONLY A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MIDDLE 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS
IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FRONT. SHOULD STORMS FORM...HIGH-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLIES WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD ADEQUATE DEEP SHEAR
THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER. IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY
DEVELOP.

..GRAMS/COHEN.. 08/30/2016

$$



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