Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 260558
SWODY1
SPC AC 260557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THROUGH THE MORNING.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARD A
SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED REGIME THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. PHASING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STEADY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL EARLY
TODAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE RELEGATED TO SOUTH FL AND
THE COASTAL NC VICINITY.

...COASTAL NC...
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE WARM SECTOR WILL LARGELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH STEADY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN VICINITY OF THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COASTAL FRONT/WARM SECTOR TO
AT LEAST GRAZE THE OUTER BANKS OF NC THIS MORNING. THIS EXPECTED
FRONTAL/STABLE THERMODYNAMIC SCENARIO SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL NONETHELESS
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

...SOUTH FL...
BANDS OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY
AN EASTWARD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY ENDING BY LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT ACCELERATES OFFSHORE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY TODAY /12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND/ WILL LIKELY
BE MITIGATED BY THE FRONTAL TIMING/VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A
MODEST AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITION.

..GUYER/LEITMAN.. 11/26/2014



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