Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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073
ACUS01 KWNS 271558
SWODY1
SPC AC 271557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHWEST AR...AND NORTHWEST LA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms will be possible today over parts of Texas and
northwest Louisiana.  Other strong storms will affect portions of
the Arklatex region and Lower Mississippi Valley.

...TX/LA...
Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough axis extending from
western KY southwestward into central TX.  Lift ahead of this trough
has resulted in a few showers and thunderstorms to develop over
central TX.  The air mass ahead of the storms is moist and
moderately unstable, with afternoon MLCAPE values expected to range
from 1000-2000 J/kg.  Relatively steep mid level lapse rates and
favorable deep-layer shear values suggest the risk of discrete
supercells capable of large hail.  A remnant surface boundary
extends from northeast TX into central LA.  Enhanced shear in
vicinity of this boundary causes some concern for an isolated
tornado or two later today if a storm moves into this zone.

...LA/MS...
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible farther east along the
boundary into southern LA and southern MS.  Weaker thermodynamic and
wind parameters suggest only a marginal risk of severe storms in
this area, but an isolated severe hail or wind report cannot be
ruled out.

..Hart/Leitman.. 02/27/2017

$$



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