Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 291251
SWODY1
SPC AC 291249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF SE WY/SW NEB/NE CO...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS
AND SRN PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEAR AND S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
IN AZ...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING.  OTHER MORE ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR FROM PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WEAK LOW-LEVEL ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY BENEATH MIDLEVEL
WNWLY FLOW OF ROUGHLY 30 KT ACROSS WY/NE CO.  LINGERING BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE BUOYANCY E OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND CO FRONT
RANGE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AND
STORM COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON.  STILL...AT
LEAST A FEW STORMS SHOULD FORM IMMEDIATELY E OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE BUOYANCY AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS TO MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON...
A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SSE ACROSS CENTRAL
OK...WITH SURFACE OUTFLOW WELL AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION.  A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AND
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG LINGERING CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  FARTHER E TOWARD AR...NEW CONVECTION WITH AN
ISOLATED DOWNBURST RISK COULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON WITH A REMNANT MCV
FROM THE MORNING STORMS IN OK.  MEANWHILE...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM IA/MO.  A DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOME THIS
AFTERNOON TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY...WHERE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...THE MOGOLLON RIM/LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
ELY/NELY MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 15-25 KT IS EXPECTED OVER S CENTRAL/SE AZ
THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE MIDLEVEL HIGH
CENTERED NEAR THE UT/AZ/NV BORDER.  A FEW STORMS SHOULD FORM NEAR
THE RIM THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD SPREAD TO
THE W/SW TOWARD THE LOWER DESERTS...WHERE A DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL
SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

..THOMPSON/LEITMAN.. 07/29/2016

$$


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