Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS02 KWNS 280601
SWODY2
SPC AC 280600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY...MOST
NUMEROUS WITHIN A ZONE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  ISOLATED SEVERE RISK
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THIS AREA -- FROM ROUGHLY EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA.

...SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER/UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WRN STATES.  WHILE THE PROGRESSION OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL
SUPPRESS A SWRN U.S. RIDGE WITH TIME...THE ERN U.S. RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR
SPREADS SWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. WITH TIME.  MEANWHILE...A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE ADVANCING WRN UPPER TROUGH.

...ERN KS/MO VICINITY NEWD INTO SERN MN/SRN WI/WRN LOWER MI...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF TX/OK NEWD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHILE SHIFTING GRADUALLY EWD.  GIVEN THE ONGOING/RELATIVELY
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER...AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT HINDERED
ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION...WITH RELATIVELY
MODEST MID-LEVEL SWLYS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...OVERALL FLOW FIELD
SHOULD REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A FEW STRONGER CELLS APPEARS TO EXIST
FROM ROUGHLY IA INTO SERN MN/WI...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE THAT RISK
WARRANTS SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE REMAINS LOW.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A
BROADER 5% RISK AREA THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 08/28/2014



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