Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 241726
SWODY2
SPC AC 241725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN VA AND
ERN NC...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...WHERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DAY
2...AS AN UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE W COAST AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD DIGS/EXPANDS SEWD INTO THE WRN U.S. WITH TIME.  AS THIS
OCCURS...A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S./PLAINS REGION.  FINALLY...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/VORT
MAX WILL SHIFT FROM THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AFTER DARK.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WRN U.S./GREAT BASIN
AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER SYSTEM...WHILE A MUCH WEAKER FRONT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT.

...SERN VA SWD ACROSS THE ERN NC VICINITY...
AFTERNOON HEATING OF A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CAPE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN NC AND
VICINITY...AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
VORT MAX.  AS THIS OCCURS...A DIURNAL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED...WITH UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION AIDED BY AMPLE SHEAR ON ACCOUNT OF 40 TO 50 KT WLYS AT
MID-LEVELS SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM.  ALONG WITH RISK FOR HAIL WITH STRONGER
CELLS...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY
IF SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO SMALL LINES/CLUSTERS CAN OCCUR -- AS
APPEARS POSSIBLE ATTM.  THE SEVERE RISK WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING...AS THE AIRMASS GRADUALLY STABILIZES AND CONVECTION MOVES
OFFSHORE.

..GOSS.. 04/24/2014



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