Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS03 KWNS 300730
SWODY3
SPC AC 300729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES...AS WELL AS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
MARYLAND TO SOUTH CAROLINA.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL SHIFT OFF THE S ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE
A RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS E OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. LEAD IMPULSE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER WRN CONUS TROUGH SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES...WHILE AN UPSTREAM VORTICITY
MAXIMUM REMAINS OVER THE DESERT SW.

...GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES...
BUOYANCY WILL BE MEAGER AHEAD OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...BUT
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WHERE TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP
SHOULD AID IN ISOLATED TSTMS. BENEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK...CHARACTERIZED BY 500 MB S/SWLYS AOA 60 KT...CONDITIONAL
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS AROUND PEAK HEATING
/INVOF UT/. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HIGHLIGHTING THIS
CORRIDOR WITH UNCONDITIONAL MARGINAL-RISK PROBABILITIES...AS
ABOVE-AVERAGE VARIABILITY EXISTS WITHIN GUIDANCE ON THE
SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

...COASTAL PORTIONS OF MD TO SC...
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITHIN A MINIMALLY BUOYANT BUT RATHER STRONGLY-FORCED ENVIRONMENT
NEAR A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE JUST OFF THE OUTER BANKS.

..GRAMS.. 10/30/2014




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