Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 270658
SWODY3
SPC AC 270657

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO LOWER MI...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS.

...GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN PLAINS...

DISJOINTED LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE MID SECTION OF
THE CONUS DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FLOW FORECAST ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE...NEWD INTO LOWER MI.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...WHILE NOT
IN TOTAL AGREEMENT...SUGGEST SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SEWD INTO MODESTLY
SHEARED BUT MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO THE SRN
PLAINS.  GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AIDED BY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...SHOULD
RESULT IN MUCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG.  STRONG-SEVERE MULTI-CELL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MRGL RISK AREA...THOUGH A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WHERE BUOYANCY SHOULD
ENHANCE UPDRAFT INTENSITY.  LARGE HAIL/WIND ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS
DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 05/27/2015



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