Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 280728
SWODY3
SPC AC 280727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE DAY 2 LARGE CLOSED LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME ON
FRIDAY...WHILE ITS CENTER SHIFTS NORTH AND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS SYSTEM REACHES THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY 01/12Z.  WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE GREAT PLAINS
ATTENDANT TO TRANSIENT MIDLEVEL IMPULSES...AND AS THE LEADING EXTENT
OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH MOVES INLAND IN THE WEST.

...EASTERN NC/VA AND OH...
SIMILAR TO DAY 2...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES PERTAINING TO THE
DISTRIBUTION OF INSTABILITY...PRIMARILY DUE TO LINGERING DAY 1/DAY 2
CLOUDINESS...PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

...FOUR CORNERS STATES TO NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ND...
MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
STATES INTO WY AND WESTERN MT...AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND/OR SOME
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSES TRACK ACROSS
THESE AREAS.  A SEPARATE AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF ND.  THIS LATTER ACTIVITY
WILL BE ATTENDANT TO A WEAKENING LOW-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL TROUGH.
OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE-WEATHER
THREAT.

..PETERS.. 09/28/2016

$$


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