Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 241101

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.


...GALE WARNING Southwest North Atlantic...

Strong low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic states is dragging a
cold front from 31N69W to the S Bahamas to E Cuba near 21N76W.
SW winds of 30-35 KT and seas of 10-17 FT are occurring within
180 NM east of the front and N of 23N. Gale force winds are
forecast to remain associated with the front through 48 hours.
Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough passes W Africa near 09N13W to 05N20W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 02N30W to 01N40W, to the coast of
South America near 02S45W. Isolated moderate convection is from
00N-02N between 18W-30W, and from 01N-06N between 30W-50W.



Strong low pressure moving across the Mid-Atlantic states is
producing NW winds of 20-25 KT over the E Gulf E of 84W with
seas of 10-17 ft. In contrast, over the Bay of Campeche, a 1016
mb high is centered near 21N92W producing only 10 kt
anticyclonic surface winds. Mostly fair weather is over the
Gulf. In the upper levels, a broad ridge is producing mostly
zonal flow with very strong subsidence. Expect in 24 hours for
the surface high to move to the SE Gulf near 25N83W with 10 kt
anticyclonic surface winds, while the W Gulf changes to 15-20 kt
S surface winds. Also expect fair weather to persist.


A cold front extends from E Cuba near 21N76W to 17N80W to the
coast of Nicaragua near 12N83W. Scattered showers are within 90
nm E of front. Broken low clouds are over the NW Caribbean W of
front. Elsewhere, scattered showers are inland over W Panama. 15-
20 kt NW surface winds are over the NW Caribbean W of front. 10-
15 kt southerly winds are over the remainder of the central and
E Caribbean. In the upper levels, zonal flow with very strong
subsidence is noted. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to
extend from Hispaniola to Costa Rica with showers. Also expect
scattered showers to advect to the E Caribbean.


Broken to overcast low clouds with scattered showers are now
over NW Haiti due to the approaching cold front. Fair weather is
over the remainder of the island.  Expect the cold front to
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
entire island Tue.


A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N69W to the S Bahamas
to E Cuba near 21N76W. A gale is E of front. See above.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm E of front N of
23N. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 180 nm E of front S
of 23N. Broken low clouds are over the W Atlantic W of front. A
1019 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 27N50W. A surface
trough extends from 31N40W 26N45W. A 1028 mb high is over the E
Atlantic near 33N18W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper
level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 20N W of 60W supporting
the surface front. Expect the cold front in 24 hours to extend
from 31N60W to the Mona Passage with convection.

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