Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230259
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR
11N123W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
IS MAINTAINING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
120 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N95W TO 08N97W MOVING W AT 10 KT
PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N
TO 12N WITHIN 240 NM W OF WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 10N TO 17N ALONG 126W MOVING W
AT 10-15 KT PAST 24 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 08N93W. ITCZ FROM 08N93W TO
10N105W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES 11N123W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED  STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 108W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH AXIS FROM 32N132W TO 18N135W. SUBSIDENCE
WAS NOTED OVER THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W AND IN THE VICINITY
OF THE TROUGH. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED A 90-95 KT
SUBTROPICAL JET E OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N130W
THROUGH 32N125W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N123W AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W/98W MENTIONED ABOVE.

A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO NEAR
33N106W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO 20N120W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 19N113W WAS
MOVING WNW 15 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH STRONGLY
CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE LOW AND ANTICYCLONE. SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS INDICATED AN EASTERLY JET OF 60-70 KT EMERGING OFF
THE W COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
WILL PULSE THROUGH INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
WED WITH WINDS REACHING 30 KT DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
DRAINAGE ON WED. SEAS WILL BUILD 8 TO 10 FT BY LATE WED MORNING.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE AGAIN WED NIGHT AND THU...THOUGH
NOT AS STRONG AS TONIGHTS EVENT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND NLY WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20-25 KT
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED THEN DECREASE ON THU.

$$
COBB



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.