Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250243
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 100W FROM 02N TO 12W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED
FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE W AROUND 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ HAVE BROKEN DOWN WITH LIGHT WINDS
FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOUND. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WAS FROM 02N TO 10N E OF 87W. A BROAD LOW PRES SYSTEM WAS
ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 08N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 107W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N W OF 120W...THE LAST OF A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES IS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO. RIDGING BUILDING WESTWARD
BEHIND THIS TROUGH IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY
FLOW ALONG THE BAJA COAST...BUT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE GRADIENT
FLOW WILL PULSE UPWARD THIS EVENING MAINLY WITHING 200 NM SOUTH
OF PUNTA EUGENIA. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT N OF 20N OFF THE
BAJA COAST...BUT 5 TO 7 FT BETWEEN 15N AND 20N DUE THE LINGERING
PRESENCE OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL REINFORCE WAVE HEIGHTS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MAINTAINING 5 TO 7 FT SEAS AND BRINGING POTENTIALLY ROUGH
SURF TO THE MEXICAN COAST FROM TEHUANTEPEC TO MANZANILLO.

S OF 15N W OF 110W...RELATIVELY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP
TROPICS IS INTERACTING WITH RIDGING REACHING INTO THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT. SEAS ARE ALREADY 5 TO
7 FT OVERALL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
SWELL LINGERING IN THE AREA...AND ADDITIONAL GAP WIND FLOW WILL
ALLOW A PLUME OF SEAS TO 8 FT AS FAR WEST AS 90W TONIGHT OFF
PAPAGAYO. ANOTHER ROUND OF LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
CROSS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TONIGHT...REINFORCING 5 TO 7 FT SEAS
AND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUGH SURF TO THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN COAST MON AND TUE. FARTHER WEST...A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS
ANALYZED NEAR 08N117W. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK SHOWING THE LOW PRES NOT DEEPENING AS
IT DRIFTS WEST ALONG THE ITCZ. LOOKING AHEAD...LOW PRES RELATED
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 100W WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NEAR 10N110W
AND DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT
DRIFTS TO THE WNW.

ELSEWHERE...A BROAD LOW 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR
12N133W DRIFTING NW. CONVECTION INCREASED EARLIER...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING WESTERLY SHEAR AS IT MOVES NW AND CLOSER TO
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N146W. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE
LOW WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH 48 HOURS. FRESH TO
STRONG SE WINDS ARE NOTED IN AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
PASS...BETWEEN A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N143W AND 1022 MB
HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N128W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PERSIST
BETWEEN THE 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N133W...WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
CENTER OF THE LOW...WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE PRIMARILY
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS LIE SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS. ANOTHER
LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 08N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED WEST OF THE LOW PRES THROUGH 140W ALONG THE ITCZ...BUT
AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS AND NEARBY TOGA-TAO BUOY
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AROUND THIS
LOW. IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS
AS THE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 12N132W SHIFTS N OF THE AREA.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.