Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280248
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU AUG 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS NEAR 23.8N 126.4W 992 MB AT 0300 UTC
AUG 28 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
PERSISTS WITHIN 180 NM ACROSS THE SE SEMICIRCLE. SEAS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 29 FT WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT
OF MARIE. MARIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NW OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND OVER GRADUALLY COOLER SST`S AND INTO MUCH MORE
STABLE AIR. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND...AND
MARIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST TROPICAL STORM BY LATE THU.
LARGE AND POWERFUL SWELL GENERATED DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WATERS...AND
IMPACT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO W OF 100W SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE COAST INCLUDING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE STRONG SWELL FROM MARIE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS SURF...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH EROSION
THROUGH THU. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON MARIE...AND
THE LOCAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE ON
IMPACTS FROM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08.5N72W TO 12.5N87W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 09N103W 1010 MB TO 11N112W...WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED E
OF MARIE. TROUGH RESUMES S OF MARIE FROM LOW PRES NEAR 16N123W
TO 14N130W TO BEYOND 10.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND
86W...FROM 05N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 90W AND 108W...AND FROM 07N TO
12N BETWEEN 117W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW OF LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 30.5N140W WITH
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1009 MB. LOWELL IS STILL PRODUCING AN AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM
NE SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS 9 TO 10 FT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOWELL. LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN WHILE MOVING WESTWARD AND MOVE FURTHER NW OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THU.

THE SMALL REMNANT LOW OF KARINA CAN STILL BE SEEN IN SATELLITE
PHOTOS THIS EVENING NEAR 16N123W MOVING NE AT 15 KT WITH A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1006 MB. THERE IS A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION NEAR KARINA THIS EVENING BUT SMALL ISOLATED CLUSTERS
CONTINUE TO PULSE NEAR THE CENTER. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO THU AS THE
CIRCULATION BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND
MARIE.

MIXED SWELLS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A
RESULT OF SWELL PROPAGATING AWAY FROM MARIE INTERACTING WITH
FADING SWELL THAT HAD BEEN GENERATED BY LOWELL AND KARINA.
MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E OF 100W WILL BE COMPARATIVELY MORE
TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS
EXPECTED.

$$
STRIPLING


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