120
FXUS63 KABR 121126 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
626 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northerly winds could bring elevated smoke from wildfires in
  Canada across the area today.

- Precipitation chances return to the area Tuesday through
  Wednesday evening (30-70% chance).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A cold front will slide across the region today, bringing northerly
winds and slightly cooler, but still above average temperatures.
High temperatures today should warm into the mid 70s, to the lower
80s. However, elevated smoke from wildfires in northwest Canada may
limit heating some today. The HRRR vertically integrated smoke shows
smoke crossing southward across the CWA today. The frontal boundary
may become the focal point for isolated showers and thunderstorms,
mainly along and south of I-90. A shortwave embedded within
northwest flow aloft may push into the western Dakotas later this
afternoon, bringing a low, 20 pop or less, chance of showers. Some
CAMS have trended drier with this feature and suggests no pcpn for
this CWA.

A backdoor cold front will move into the northeast corner of the CWA
later tonight and into the morning hours on Monday. The area as a
whole will see cooler temperatures on Monday, with highs in the mid
60s, to the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Weak upper level ridging will be over the area Monday night and
Tuesday. By the end of the day Tuesday, an elongated trough will
extend from south central Canada to southern California. Will see a
leading shortwave track across South Dakota Tuesday night, before
the main trough slides across the area Wednesday night and Thursday.
A slight northwest flow sets up Thursday night and Friday, then a
more zonal flow develops on Saturday ahead of another approaching
shortwave trough.

At the surface, high pressure will be the dominant feature Monday
night, then a low pressure system and associated frontal boundary
will slowly track across the CWA Tuesday afternoon through the day
Wednesday. The front looks to be the focus for shower and
thunderstorm development. The best potential for some stronger
thunderstorms looks to be across central South Dakota Tuesday
afternoon when 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE and 40 to 50 knots of bulk
shear develop. Weak high pressure settles in behind the exiting
front Wednesday night. Another low pressure system then approaches,
with its associated frontal boundary tracking across the CWA during
the day Friday. There will be some shear along the front, but
instability looks pretty minimal, so severe weather chances appear
low. High pressure moves in Friday night and remains over the area
through the day Saturday.

High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday, in
the mid 60s to lower 70s Wednesday, in the lower to mid 70s
Thursday, in the mid to upper 70s Friday, and in the upper 60s to
lower 70s Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to the
lower 50s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and tonight.
Elevated smoke from wildfires in Canada may drift over the area
today.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin