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FXAK67 PAJK 062344
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
344 PM AKDT Mon May 6 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday night/...Showers give way to
stratiform precipitation Tuesday night with the end result being
the same: continued wet weather across Southeast Alaska for this
short term forecast period. As with the showers, the rain will not
necessarily be continuous, but rather on again and off again.
Additionally, rainfall totals have been modest, totally enough to
elicit small responses from the smaller waterways but not enough
to threaten flooding or even bankfull status anywhere. Expect less
than 1 tenth of an inch to as much as a third of an inch depending
on the location for both tonight and tomorrow. The next front
approaches on Tuesday night and will feature 12-hour totals
ranging from 0.2 inches over the far northern inner channels to
0.8 inches over the central southern inner channels. P-type will
be rain everywhere except along the Klondike Highway near the Pass
with less than a half inch tonight but possibly 1.5 inches on
Tuesday night.

Light winds over land and inner channel marine winds of 15 kts
tonight will give way to breezy conditions developing over land on
Tuesday and windy conditions with 30 to 35 mph gusts Tuesday
night. Favored locations for those stronger gusts will be the
southern outer coast, south of Frederick Sound, and in the
downtown Juneau area.

.LONG TERM...The gale force system that entered the panhandle on
Tuesday will continue to sweep N through the Wednesday, bringing
with it rain and blustery conditions across the panhandle. In its
wake on Wednesday, onshore flow will prevail, maintaining
continued chances of precipitation. Another gale force system -
this one more of a rain-producer than a wind-maker, will move into
the panhandle late on Wednesday. The primary center of
circulation for this low is further W in the Gulf, and so
anticipate that the strongest winds will largely stay onshore. The
associated plume of moisture will move in force through the N
panhandle, centered along the NE Gulf Coast and the Yakutat area,
though anticipate that the Icy Strait Corridor will see
respectable precipitation totals. Up to 2-3" of rain are
anticipated along the NE Gulf Coast, with lower totals elsewhere
in conjunction with this system. The plume of moisture moves W
through Thursday, weakening substantially in the process, before
largely falling apart as it approaches the southern panhandle.
Lingering chances of precipitation will last after the system
departs, before a potential break in the rain during the latter
half of Friday and through much of Saturday across a large part of
the area. This is not yet set in stone - there remains some
disagreement in ensembles. Another system is likely to arrive for
the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION.../Variable conditions across the panhandle as
widespread rain showers move through the area. Generally
conditions have been bouncing back and fourth between VFR and MVFR
with some brief gusty winds as each shower moves through.
Freezing levels have also been low with the JAWS profilers around
juneau showing snow down to 2500 feet today. These conditions will
not be changing all that much through the next 24 hours with
showers continuing to be expected. Winds will be getting worse
however for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as a somewhat
potent front for this time of year moves inland. Expect some low
level wind shear and possible turbulence late Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday night as the front moves in.

&&

.MARINE...Marine winds generally 15 to 20 kts tonight, increasing
to 25 kts on Tuesday morning, further increasing to 35-40 kt
gales late in the day Tuesday. Strongest winds will be over the
eastern Gulf, but areas of gale force winds will also develop
over some of the inner channels with the most extensive being over
Clarence Strait. Seas building to 4-7 ft on the inside and as
much as 16 ft on the outside in advance of frontal passage. Seas
on the outside dominated by wind wave with long period swell
making up slightly more than half of the combined seas.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ661>663.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-032-033-035-036-641>644-651-652-
     664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE...Fritsch
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...EAL

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