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000
FNUS73 KAPX 251900
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Frost Pocket Rx Burn...MIDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
300 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 EDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Winds to remain largely from the east to southeast through the afternoon,
running 5-15mph. Wind direction could be favorable for locally enhancing
dry conditions especially downwind of locally higher terrain. (RHs already
down around 20 percent.) Expecting winds to remain light overnight, and
increase through the day Friday with increasing gustiness to 15-20mph.
RHs Friday to remain at or below critical...and could be lower than
current forecast indicates. Rain chances approach Friday night from
Wisconsin...but current dry air in the region may slow this down. Mixing
Friday may not be as deep as today.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........21 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds.
Transport winds.....South around 6 mph.
Mixing height.......5700-5800 ft AGL.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (326.0).

TIME (EDT)      4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............53  54
RH..............22  21
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..5   5
20 ft wind gust.6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...5.7 5.8
Haines index....3   3
Transp wind dir.S   S
Transp wind spd.6   6
Vrate kt-ft.....326 333
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 27.
Max humidity........85 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......4800-5800 ft AGL decreasing to 400-1000 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (35.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........2   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   3   5   6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............52  51  48  43  39  36  34  32  29  29  29  28
RH..............22  26  31  37  42  50  58  65  73  75  79  85
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
20 ft wind spd..8   8   8   8   8   8   7   7   7   6   6   6
20 ft wind gust.12  12  12  13  13  13  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...5.8 4.8 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Haines index....3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.7   7   9   12  10  9   9   9   9   9   10  10
Vrate kt-ft.....399 330 91  62  47  40  35  36  35  35  40  39
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........23 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 12 mph.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 17 mph shifting to the southeast 20
                    to 22 mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......400-1300 ft AGL increasing to 2400-4000 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (34.0-415.0) increasing to good
                    (662.0) late in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........5      2      8      15     24     25
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............29     33     47     54     58     59
RH..............84     79     49     32     23     27
20 ft wind dir..S      S      SE     SE     SE     SE
20 ft wind spd..7      7      12     13     13     14
20 ft wind gust.12     12     18     21     21     21
Mix hgt (ft)....400    500    2400   3700   4000   3800
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Transport wind..S 10   S 9    S 17   S 20   SE 20  SE 22
Vrate kt-ft.....38     42     415    728    776    838
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   FAIR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

$$
Forecaster...FEF
Requested by...Jennifer Hansen
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412473.0/APX
.DELDT 04/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL hansenj4@michigan.gov