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000
FXUS61 KBGM 130124
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
924 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure with a cold frontal boundary will gradually shift
northeast of the area Saturday bringing one final round of rain
and snow showers. Another frontal boundary and chance for
showers will then come through the region Sunday. High pressure
then builds into the region for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
920 pm update...

Hourly and minimum temperatures are still running warm so upped
them. Adjusted pops a little. The rain has started which will
fill in and expand across the area.

6 pm update...

Minor changes to the forecast. Clouds and showers continue but
temperatures are still in the 50s. Showers will become more
widespread and temperatures will fall into the mid and upper
30s for lows late tonight. For the overnight into Saturday
morning light accumulating snow is likely for the highest
terrain. Snow amounts will be mostly under an inch for the
higher terrain and none in the valleys. The snow will have
trouble sticking with the warm wet ground.

previous discussion...
Main concern will be the west and southwest winds through
Saturday. Model soundings do show the potential for some wind
gusts in the 35-45, isolated 50 mph wind gusts throughout the
overnight through Saturday. Given our soggy ground we still have
trees that may come down even withe borderline advisory level
gusts. Issued a wind advisory for a few Finger Lakes counties as
the gusts look a little higher for this location. Used the
blend of the current and version 2 of the NBM which have
respective biases in opposite directions to get the forecasted
gusts.

Temperatures will fall into the mid 30`s tonight with another
round of precipitation coming through with an upper level low.
Surface dewpoints are still in the 40`s this afternoon which
makes it a little worrisome with trying to get a changeover
overnight to snow. Given the warm ground and higher wetbulb
temperatures limited ratios on the high end to around 6:1.
Another quarter of inch of QPF is modeled through Saturday. This
gets the highest elevations a coating to an inch or so of snow.
Rain showers look to linger through Saturday with chilly
temperatures in the 40`s.

Some clearing is likely to occur Saturday night but some warm
air advection should keep temperatures from falling much.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
200 PM Update...

A weak surface ridge will move across the area Sunday morning,
advecting in a warmer airmass, especially across the western
Southern Tier and NEPA. Temps should climb into the 60s here, with
areas north and east seeing the mid to upper 50s. A shortwave is
expected to sweep in from the Great Lakes by early afternoon. Most
of NY should see rain showers with an isolated rumble of thunder
given forecast soundings show a pretty strong low level inversion as
warm air in the mid levels covers the region. Warmer surface
temperatures across the western Southern Tier and NEPA helps reduce
this inversion, and 0-6km bulk shear of 50-60kts will allow for a
better chance of more widespread thunderstorms. This could creep
north if temps across the region warm more than currently modeled.

A cold front is expected to dive across the region from the north as
the low slides eastward. This will generate more showers and
thunderstorms through the evening hours. Temps will fall into the
mid 40s across NY and upper 40s across NEPA. A few showers will
linger into the overnight hours, but should dissipate well before
sunrise. High pressure will fill in behind the front, with NW flow
keeping skies cloudy through the day. Temps should rise into the
upper 50s to mid 60s. The high pressure center moves into the area
Monday night, scattering skies out and bringing light winds. Temps
will fall into the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
205 PM Update...

An active week of weather is in store for the region as multiple low
pressure systems impact the area. The first low will move through
the Great lakes Wednesday, pushing a warm front through the region.
Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through the
afternoon and evening hours as temps will increase to the upper 60s
to mid 70s across the area. A weak ridge fills in behind the
departing low Thursday night, but another shortwave is right on its
heels, bringing another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
750 PM Update

An area of rain will continue overspreading the forecast area
from west to east this evening. This will start to bring
widespread MVFR to MVFR Fuel Alt restrictions in the 00z to 06z
timeframe. The steady rain continues overnight, and will start
to mix with snow over the higher elevations first, then down to
the valley floors by 09-12z Saturday morning. This will bring
lower CIGs, between IFR and low end MVFR Fuel Alt...along with
lower vsbys in the 2-4SM range. This mix of steady rain and snow
continues areawide through Saturday morning, before changing
back to mainly rain showers Saturday afternoon (after 16z). The
CIGs continue to lower Saturday morning, becoming widespread IFR
for CNY mid to late morning, and into the early afternoon hours.
AVP looks to stay mainly above IFR (in the Fuel Alt range).
Eventually drier air slowly works in from the west after 18-21z
Saturday afternoon...bringing gradual improvement back to MVFR
fuel alternate...and then as the rain finally ends after 21z
back to MVFR and eventually VFR toward or just after 00z
Sunday...which is the end of this taf period. RME will be the
last taf site to see improvement as the system exits off to the
north and east.

The other story will be the increasingly strong winds. Winds are
SW 10-20 kts overnight. These winds turn west-northwest Saturday
between 20-30 kts, with some peak gusts of 35-40 kts possible.


Outlook...

Saturday night...MVFR CIGs linger in the evening at SYR, BGM
and RME...becoming VFR areawide overnight.

Sunday...Chance for rain showers and possible restrictions;
mainly in the afternoon.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR, another chance of showers
Wednesday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ015-016-022-023.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG/TAC
NEAR TERM...MWG/TAC
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MJM/MWG