Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 260238
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1038 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures and dry weather to start the week will give way to
showers for Tuesday evening through most of Wednesday. Cooler, but
seasonable temperatures return for Wednesday into the weekend. Dry
weather returns for Thursday and Friday before the potential for
showers increases over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/...
While tonight will certainly be precipitation free, it will become
quite windy for some areas. A 50 knot low level jet sandwiched
between departing surface high and a deepening storm system
over the upper Mississippi Valley will impinge upon our region.
The bulk of these winds within the warm advective pattern will
remain trapped aloft by an inversion, but in the typical
downslope areas, the south to southeast flow could prove to be
an issue. The biggest risk for stronger winds will be found
between Lake Erie and the Chautauqua Ridge where 45-50 mph wind
gusts will be possible as the eastern edge of the stronger low
level winds clips western NY. A wind advisory will be issued to
cover this potential risk and will run from late tonight through
the first half of Tuesday.

A lesser threat will be found across the remaining higher terrain of
the western Southern Tier and on the north facing slopes of the Tug
Hill where gusts up to 35-40 mph will be possible. Funneling down
the Black River valley is another area worth keeping an eye on.
Otherwise, it won`t be nearly as cold tonight, with lows ranging
from the upper 20s to lower 30s east of Lake Ontario to the mid and
upper 30s across most of western NY. However, the southeasterly
downslope flow may keep low temperatures in the low 40s locally
northwest of the Chautauqua Ridge.

It will be breezy and mild on Tuesday...as temperatures will climb
to at least 55 to 65F across the majority of the region. The driving
force for the mild conditions will be southerly 40 kt low level jet
that will be found out ahead of an approaching cold front. If not
for a persistent and very robust low level inversion (~2kft)...H85
temps of 8-10c would easily support max temps in the 70s. Our loss.
Meanwhile...a swath of moisture and lift associated with a pre-
frontal trough will support lowering and thickening clouds over the
far western counties along with at LEAST scattered showers by late
afternoon. Meanwhile..skies will remain partly sunny across the
Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario regions.

It will be unsettled Tuesday night...as the aforementioned pre-
frontal trough will make its way across the region. Will maintain
likely pops from continuity...but a break in the shower activity
should be found between the pre frontal trough and the actual sfc
front...the latter of which will not move thorugh until after
daybreak Wednesday. It will be a mild night with mins mainly between
40 and 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Deep trough to our west will slowly creep east with showers
decreasing in coverage Wednesday as a mid level dry slot works in
from the west. The more concentrated area of showers will be from
the Genesee Valley east and then across the North Country. It will
remain mild ahead of the front with temperatures peaking in the mid
50s to mid 60s, with the warmest readings east of the Genesee Valley.

Drier weather will return areawide Wednesday night but it will also
turn progressively cooler behind the front.

Cooler air will continue to filter into the eastern Great Lakes
Thursday as the closed low/trough to our west gradually works east
through the region. Given the fact that the airmass behind the front
is dry there shouldn`t be much of a lake response.

Otherwise...dry weather is expected for the remainder of the
work week. Temperatures will be found right where they should be
for this time of year (40s to low 50s).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deep upper level troughing draped from Hudson Bay to the eastern
seaboard at the start of this period will shift east to the Canadian
Maritimes and de-amplify somewhat as we move through the weekend and
early next week...though broad troughing will generally remain in
place across our region aloft.

At the lower levels Canadian surface high pressure will largely
dominate our region...with a couple of weak systems passing by to
our southwest and potentially brushing parts of western New York
later Saturday into Saturday night...and again later Sunday night
and Monday. Given continued differences in the track of these
features...have generally undercut NBM PoPs for both of these
periods (with this especially the case for the second system). Both
systems are currently expected to just bring the chance of a few
rain and/or wet snow showers to portions of western New York...with
any wet snow likely remaining confined to the nighttime hours given
expected temperatures.

Speaking of which...these should average out from right around
normal to just a smidge below throughout the period. Daily highs
should mostly range from the lower to mid 40s across the North
Country to between 45 and 50 elsewhere...with nightly lows generally
running in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will be found throughout the region through at least
midday Tuesday.

While CIGS and VSBYS will not be an issue through the TAF period...
winds just `off the deck` (~2 kft) will become strong enough to
support at least the possibility for low level wind shear conditions
late in the TAF period for KBUF/KIAG/KROC. A stout inversion just
off the deck though will make it difficult for these winds to mix to
the surface. However, if better mixing can occur (i.e. gustier
surface winds), then wind shear may not be an issue, however higher
gusts would be realized at the surface instead.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR but with showers far west in the afternoon.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR to MVFR CIGS with scattered
showers.
Thursday and Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR, but with showers possible far west late.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate east to southeast winds will be in place, although winds
will freshen across Lake Ontario. Given that the flow will be mainly
offshore, the choppiest conditions will be found in Canadian waters.
However, with more of an easterly component to the wind developing
across central and western Lake Ontario, near Small Craft conditions
will be found from near Sodus Bay westward. Increasing winds this
evening will reach Small Craft conditions along Lake Erie as winds
downslope off the Chautauqua Ridge through Tuesday.

Flow will remain mainly offshore through mid week, however winds
(and possibly waves at times) may near Small Craft Advisory
thresholds on both Lakes through this period.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for NYZ019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/RSH


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