328
FXUS64 KCRP 171131
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
631 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

- Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms across
the southeastern portion of our CWA today.

Rain chances are set to continue today. An outflow boundary
originating from an earlier MCS in the Hill Country has moved
through South Texas. This boundary intersected an embedded
shortwave tracking across the region ahead of an approaching
upper-level trough. The atmospheric environment is highly
unstable, characterized by ample moisture, with the 00Z CRP
sounding indicating over 6000 J/kg of SBCAPE and model PWAT values
are ranging from 1.5 - 2.0 inches. However, a strong capping
inversion is also present, which may initially inhibit convection.

CAM guidance suggests that convection will begin to develop across
Mexico just southwest of our CWA between 08 - 12Z, moving
northeastward as the embedded shortwave advances. Additionally, the
main trough nearing the region will enhance upper-level diffluence,
aided by a 105 - 110 kt upper jet sinking southward. Given these
dynamics, there is a low to medium (20 - 50%) probability of shower
and thunderstorm development.

This activity could become strong to severe, particularly across the
southeastern portions of out CWA where favorable instability and
moisture coexist with mid-level lapse rates around 7 - 7.5 C/km and
0 - 6 km bulk shear around 60 - 80 kts. The primary hazards from
these storms will be large hail and damaging winds. SPC has placed
the southeastern CWA under a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for
severe weather, while the rest of South Texas is in a general
thunderstorm risk. The optimal timing for severe weather appears to
be from this morning into the afternoon hours, with all activity
expected to dissipate and move out of the area by late evening. As
this upper-level disturbance moves east, ridging will build in
behind, allowing for dominant quasi zonal flow and the return of
warm and dry conditions for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Key Messages:

- A risk of heat related impacts Monday through Thursday across the
Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains.

A warmer airmass is predicted to develop over the region Monday
through Thursday, manifested by an upper ridge that builds over the
region, per the GFS/ECMWF. A progressive pattern is expected to
remain over the northern approximately 3/4 of the CONUS, with upper
disturbances moving close yet remaining north of the CWA.
Nevertheless, these disturbances will continue to return flow and
increasing moisture over the region beginning Sunday. The GFS/ECMWF
predict PWAT values to increase above normal over the CWA Monday and
continue through the remainder of the period. The combination of
heating and greater near surface moisture will increase maximum Heat
Index values over the CWA. WPC continues to predict a 40-70 percent
chance that the maximum Heat Index threshold of 110F will be met
over the Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains Monday through
Thursday. The NBM continues to predict 8s maximum swell period over
the coastal waters Saturday/Sunday, which would increase the risk of
rip currents along the Gulf-facing beaches to the Moderate category.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

MVFR will likely prevail through most of this TAF cycle. Terminals
over the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads may experience
brief IFR conditions. There is a low to moderate chance for
showers and thunderstorms through the morning for our western
sites and mid to late afternoon elsewhere. A few of these could
be strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds as the
primary threats. Ceilings and visibility could be reduced in and
around any thunderstorms. Patchy haze is expected to linger
across South Texas, but ceilings and visibility should become VFR
by this evening.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Weak east-northeast flow is expected today along with a low to
medium chance for showers and thunderstorms over the bays and
nearshore waters. A few storms could be strong to severe. Rain
chances decrease Friday night, followed by drier conditions through
the weekend. Warm conditions are expected Monday through Thursday, with
weak to moderate onshore flow. Maximum Heat Index values 90-95F
Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  75  94  76 /  50  10   0   0
Victoria          85  71  94  72 /  50  10   0   0
Laredo            91  75 102  76 /  40  10   0   0
Alice             90  72  97  73 /  50  10   0   0
Rockport          88  76  90  77 /  50  20   0   0
Cotulla           90  73 100  75 /  20  10   0   0
Kingsville        90  74  95  75 /  50  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       89  80  90  79 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS/98
LONG TERM....WC/87
AVIATION...KRS/98