714
FXUS63 KEAX 112323
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
623 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Showers and thunderstorms become possible Sunday and Monday.
 Severe weather is not expected however minor flooding will be
 possible.

-Additional showers and thunderstorms expected for the second
 half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Today, weak upper level ridging is building into the area in
response to a upper level trough moving from the Great Basin to the
Four corners region. This combined with surface high pressure has
made for a very pleasant and slight above normal day with highs in
the mid 70s to lower 80s. Tonight into Sunday the upper level
trough, in the form a closed low with move into the western Plains.
Scattered warm air advection showers and thunderstorms are expected
ahead of this system tomorrow afternoon. Despite the increased cloud
cover and showers, low amplitude upper level ridging and WAA will
keep highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Sunday night into Monday,
this closed low system will progress slowly across Kansas increasing
shower and thunderstorms probabilities and coverage. This will make
for a cooler Monday with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Monday
night the closed upper low will move directly over the forecast area
continuing shower and isolated thunderstorm chances. All told
widespread 1 to 2 inches of precipitation is expected with this
system which may lead to minor given the antecedent wet conditions.
A few residual light showers will be possible early Tuesday as the
upper level system shifts eastward into the lower Ohio River Valley
but should be mostly dry by afternoon is surface high pressure
builds into the area. Afternoon sun should help highs return to near
normal in the low to mid 70s. Tuesday night into early Wednesday
look to remain dry as a surface ridge remains in control however,
late Wednesday into Wednesday into Wednesday night a upper level
trough will dig from the Rockies into the northern and central
Plains. Lead shortwaves ahead of this trough will allow for rounds
of thunderstorms to develop Wednesday night into Thursday. This
trough will weaken as it moves through the Plains Thursday into
Thursday night forcing a weak cold front into the area. This cold
front will then stall across the area Thursday night into Friday and
will be the focus for continued rounds of showers and thunderstorms
To finish out the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period. Increase in mid-level
clouds anticipated tonight into Sunday. Scattered showers become
increasingly probable by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB/73
AVIATION...Blair