Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
952 FXUS65 KGGW 171808 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 1208 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - There will be an opportunity for showers and isolated thunderstorms, some of them severe, today through late tonight. - Wind gusts to 40 mph are expected today, so a Lake Wind Advisory product is occurring from now through 9PM Saturday. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A cold front is passing through the area this morning, and an associated quick moving trough will pass through in the early afternoon. This will lead to west winds gusting up to 40 mph, with higher gusts (50 mph or greater) in or near isolated thunderstorms that are expected to pop up across the area today. Specifically, Dawson, Richland, McCone, Sheridan, Daniels, Prairie, and Wibaux counties have the highest probability (10 to 40 percent probability) of seeing severe wind gusts and isolated severe hail. These storms will come to an end late this evening, with isolated showers possible after midnight. A sunny day is in store for tomorrow after the cold front passes through today, temperatures will only be slightly cooler, and sustained winds will be in the 20 to 30 mph range. A overall trough pattern is expected to remain over the region, so unsettled weather with isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain over the region throughout the week. CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST: There is medium to high (50 to 60 percent) confidence of wind gusts exceeding 30 mph out of the west today, and high (90 percent) confidence of wind gusts exceeding 30 mph on Saturday. There is low to medium (20 to 40 percent) confidence of severe winds and/or hail occurring today, especially east of line from Opheim to Jordan. -Stoinskers && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 1900Z FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR and MVFR. DISCUSSION: There are mid to high level clouds that will continue to move through today. There is low to moderate (20 to 40 percent) confidence of severe wind gusts and severe hail moving through between 20Z and 02Z at KOLF, KSDY, and KGDV, which may lead to brief MVFR conditions in thunderstorms. A rapid change in wind direction may also occur with any downdrafts. WINDS: West northwest winds 15 to 25 knots, with gusts to 35 knots, becoming light and variable after 00Z Sunday. -Stoinskers && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT Saturday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow