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000
FXUS64 KMOB 261141
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
641 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Patchy to areas of fog have developed across portions of the
western FL panhandle and south central AL early this morning with
visibility locally reduced to IFR to LIFR thresholds. Observations
from KMOB/KBFM/KJKA/KPNS are currently reporting good visibility
as of 1130Z. Patchy fog should lift by around 13-14Z. VFR is
expected to prevail today. Southeasterly winds will increase to
10-15 knots with some gusts over 20 knots across most of the
region late this morning into this afternoon. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 523 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR AND SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 523 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Upper level ridging continues to build eastward across the north
central Gulf Coast region early this morning, while a surface
ridge of high pressure extends along much of the Eastern Seaboard.
Skies have generally been mostly clear through the night, but
satellite imagery shows increasing high level cloud cover
spreading into MS. Patchy fog has developed across portions of
south central AL and the western FL panhandle, with the lowest
visibilities of 1/4 to 1/2 mile impacting Crestview and Eglin Duke
Field as of 430 AM CDT. Patchy fog will linger for a few more
hours before lifting around or after sunrise.

The upper level ridge axis will slowly advance eastward from the
north central Gulf Coast region and Tennessee Valley to across the
eastern and southeastern U.S. late tonight into Saturday. The mid
to upper level flow pattern will transition southwesterly across
our forecast area through the weekend behind the advancing ridge
axis and also well ahead of an upper level trough that will slowly
move from the Rocky Mountains and into the Plains. Deep layer
subsidence underneath the ridge axis will keep the weather dry
across our area through the weekend. The MSLP gradient will
increase over our region this weekend between surface ridging over
the western Atlantic/Eastern Seaboard and low pressure over the
Plains. Breezy southeasterly winds will prevail over our forecast
area through the weekend with speeds of 10-20 mph and gusts up to
25-35 mph possible. Temperatures will remain warm with afternoon
highs ranging in the lower to mid 80s over inland locations and in
the mid 70s to near 80 degrees along the coast each day today
through Sunday. Lows remain mild in the upper 50s to lower 60s
over inland locations and in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees along
the immediate coast and beaches.

For beach interests: The rip current risk starts off LOW this
morning, but will ramp up to a MODERATE risk tonight followed by a
HIGH risk of dangerous rip currents this weekend into early next
week given the persistent southeasterly flow and increasing swell.
Confidence continues to increase that surf will also build along
the Alabama and western Florida panhandle beaches this weekend,
with surf breakers up to 4-7 feet possible Saturday night through
Sunday night. A High Surf Advisory may be issued later today or
tonight if confidence in these trends continues to increase. /21

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 523 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

No significant changes were made to the extended forecast. A
shortwave trough within southwesterly flow aloft will translate
from the ArkLaTex vicinity early Monday morning to across the
Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley Monday afternoon into
Monday night. Moisture and ascent ahead of this feature may become
sufficient to aid in the development of isolated to scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity across southeast MS and portions
of southwest AL Monday afternoon and evening. Another shortwave
impulse arrives by Tuesday with another potential for isolated to
scattered convection over this same general area again on Tuesday.
Upper level ridging may otherwise tend to build back over the
forecast area Wednesday and Thursday, keeping generally dry
weather conditions in the forecast both days. Warm temperatures
will prevail through the week, with highs mostly in the 80s and
lows mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s inland and in the mid
60s to near 70 degrees along the immediate coast and beaches. /21

MARINE...
Issued at 523 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Southeasterly flow will increase over the marine area late this
week and especially into the upcoming weekend. A Small Craft
Advisory has been issued for much of the marine area from Saturday
morning through late Sunday night as southeasterly winds average
between 15-25 kt with gusts up to around 30 kt. Seas also look to
build to 6-9 ft over the Gulf waters Saturday night into Sunday.
/21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      83  66  82  66  81  65  82  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  10
Pensacola   79  67  78  68  78  67  79  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      78  68  79  68  78  68  79  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   85  61  84  61  85  59  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  10
Waynesboro  86  63  84  63  85  61  85  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  30  20
Camden      85  62  83  62  83  60  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  10
Crestview   85  61  84  61  85  59  84  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through late Monday
     night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through late Monday
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 4 AM CDT Monday for
     GMZ630>634-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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