069
FXUS63 KSGF 102301
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
601 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonable conditions continue through Saturday.

- Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (20-50%) return
  Sunday afternoon and become widespread Monday. Continued
  chances (30-60%) linger into Tuesday, particularly east of
  Springfield.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave over the
Tennessee Valley this afternoon and a cutoff low over the
western CONUS, placing southwest Missouri under NNW flow aloft.
Breezy conditions will continue through the afternoon hours with
forecast soundings indicating mixing near the 800 mb level,
producing NNW wind gusts of 20-30 mph.

A low pressure system across the Great Lakes region will drag a
weak cold front through the area overnight tonight, though
given the dry air and diffuse boundary, no precipitation is
expected with its passage.

The forecast remains quiet through Saturday with dry conditions
and seasonable temperatures. Expect highs in the mid to upper
70s, and lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Ensemble guidance depicts the cutoff low over the western CONUS
transitioning to an open wave and shifting east Saturday into
Sunday, providing upper-level lift across southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas. Shower and thunderstorm coverage appears to
be isolated to scattered Sunday afternoon and evening before
better forcing arrives Monday morning, and precipitation becomes
more widespread. Precipitation chances linger into Tuesday,
particularly east of Springfield as the shortwave axis gradually
shifts east.

At this point, a severe thunderstorm threat Monday appears low
but unclear, as global models often struggle with instability
this far out. We should get a clearer picture of this potential
as we get in range of hi-res guidance.

With the greatest moisture confined south of the area across
the ArkLaTex region and forecast PWATs below the 90th percentile
of climatology, rainfall rates may not be particularly high
Monday. However, the extended nature of the rainfall and moist
antecedent conditions may pose a low-end flood threat.

The latest NBM probabilities of rainfall totals Sunday- Tuesday:
> 0.5 inch: 70-90%
> 1 inch: 30-80%
> 2 inch: 10-30%

For Wednesday, ensemble guidance depicts a brief period of
height rises over the area, which should keep the Missouri
Ozarks dry for much of the day.

LREF clusters depict increasingly divergent solutions Thursday
and beyond. Generally, they depict a positively tilted upper-
level wave traversing the southern Plains with ridging across
the eastern CONUS. Overall, GEFS members depict a more high-
amplitude pattern which phases the southern stream energy with
the northern stream, and they develop a deep ridge along the
Pacific coast. On the other hand, ENS solutions tend to depict
the southern wave becoming unphased with the northern wave,
which would likely result in less organized convection. This far
out, confidence in any one solution is far too low to latch
onto any specifics, but these details will impact variables like
timing, shear, instability, and moisture for thunderstorm
development.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF
period. Expect early evening fair weather cumulus to dissipate
this evening. Winds turn light at 5 knots or less out of the
southwest tonight, before becoming more west-northwesterly
again on Saturday at 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Perez