Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
760 FXUS63 KSGF 282317 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 617 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Significant flooding continues over parts of west central Missouri and southeast Kansas from earlier heavy rain. - Conditional risk of severe storms this afternoon and evening with damaging wind gusts the main risk. Flood watch has been extended until 10 pm. - The unsettled pattern continues with additional storm chances mid to late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show upper low circulation over southern SD into northern NE with trough axis becoming negatively tilted. Southwest flow continues over the area southeast of the low. Surface low was located over eastern NE with the surface front extending south of the low into south central KS and western OK. Atmosphere was really worked over from last night and this mornings MCS. Low clouds were finally starting to erode, but surface temperatures were still in the mid 60s with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. Very little to no instability over the area early this afternoon. Yet... Thunderstorm chances this afternoon and tonight: CAMS remain VERY bullish with redevelopment this afternoon, especially the HRRR. We have backed off on severity from earlier in the morning, but hard to ignore all the models wanting to redevelop something. Convection is expected to redevelop over eastern Oklahoma ahead of the front and spread northeast into western Missouri and then advancing eastward across the remainder of the area during the evening into the early part of the overnight hours. If some stronger storms do develop, the main risk would be with damaging straight line winds and a lower risk of large hail. We have removed the tornado risk from the HWO at this time. Heavy rain will continue to be possible with the redeveloping convection and we have extended the flood watch through 10 pm. Significant flooding continues over the northwest portion of the CWA where 7 to 10 inches of rain has occurred over the last several days. Several rivers are in major flood stage over west central Missouri. Luckily the heaviest rainfall will occur east of there with any redevelopment tonight. There are some areas east of an Osage Beach to Neosho line that have 1-2 additional inches of rainfall tonight. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 The upper wave should push east of the area on Monday and we should have generally dry conditions through Tuesday. Rain should exit out of the far eastern CWA on Monday morning with clearing during the day. Temperatures should heat up into the 80s on Tuesday. An upper wave will lift from the northern plains into the upper Mississippi valley with a surface front approaching from the northwest. It may be enough for some rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday. The main upper trough will approach the area from the west Wednesday night into the later part of the week with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing over the area. The main system should move through late Friday into Friday night with clearing and cooler conditions for the upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Showers and storms will be ongoing at the beginning of the TAF period as a front remains west of the region. Where showers and storms occur, expect MVFR to IFR flight conditions. Wind shear in the vicinity of convection can be expected. Storms can be expected through 08-09Z with diminishing effects of storms as the system moves east of the area. Conditions will improve into Monday, though MVFR to low end VFR ceilings will remain across the region. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056- 066>069-077>081-088>096-101>105. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Hatch