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000
FXUS63 KTOP 220842
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
342 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Wind Advisory is in effect this afternoon for portions of
central and northeastern Kansas as south/southwest winds of 25-35
mph and gusts of 35-45 mph can be expected.

- A frontal boundary moves through this evening and into Tuesday
morning, increasing rain chances with a few rumbles of thunder.

- Additional chances for rain and thunderstorms come Thursday and
into the weekend, some of which could be strong to severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A quick look at mid-level synoptic features across the US shows a
deep low over south-central Canada, shortwave energy ejecting over
the northern Rockies along the upper trough axis, ridging building
over the central Plains and an positively-tilted trough axis
rotating towards the eastern seaboard. Zooming into the central
Plains, surface ridging has slid south of northeast Kansas and into
northwest AR while a lee cyclone and trough axis deepens over the
northern Plains in response to the shortwave ejection just to its
west. These two surface features will set the stage for a windy day
across Kansas as pressure gradients tighten ahead of the southeast-
moving surface trough. Sustained south/southwest winds ranging
between 25-35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be likely across
central Kansas through northeast Kansas. A Wind Advisory remains in
effect across this area until 6 PM today. Efficient low-level WAA,
sunny skies and deep BL mixing will promote a quick warm-up by the
afternoon as temperatures reach the 70s area-wide; low 70s across
east-central KS and upper 70s for central and north-central KS.

As we get into this evening, a surface boundary along the trough
axis will begin to move across the area from north-central to east-
central KS, increasing chances for rain and a few rumbles of
thunder. With limited moisture in place ahead of the boundary, not
expecting a lot of precipitation with this system with the best
ascent and QPF remains further towards northeastern Kansas and
southeastern Nebraska.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be fairly quiet with highs topping out in
the low 70s. Wednesday afternoon could see scattered light rain
showers as a system passes to the north, but with limited moisture
in place, not expecting much.

Attention then turns to the next system progged to impact the area
Thursday and Friday. Long range guidance has continued to remain in
good agreement that a shortwave moving out of the southwestern US
will move across the area Thursday and Friday, increasing chances
for rain and thunderstorms; some potentially strong to severe. Ahead
of this system, low-level flow shifts back to the south and fully
opens up the Gulf for continuous moisture advection into the central
and southern Plains. As the shortwave pushes east Thursday and
Friday, it may take on a negative tilt indicating strengthening of
mid and low-level dynamics. Effective shear and instability will
increase ahead of any surface features, but this does not seem to be
the main uncertainty. Timing of the system will play a big role for
how this system unfolds Thursday and Friday and what areas will have
better chances to see strong to severe weather. The GFS still pushes
the shortwave across the Plains faster, indicating an eastern shift
in severe weather for Friday while the Euro and CMC run slower,
giving a further western solution for stronger storms Friday.
Regardless, good chances for precipitation will come by the weeks-
end with most of northeast Kansas seeing 60-80% PoPs from Thursday
afternoon into Saturday. Finer details to the forecast will continue
to take shape over the next few days, so make sure to keep updated
with your latest forecast. Not long after the system exits Friday,
another system digging out of the PNW will provide additional rain
and storm chances Saturday and Sunday. As the old saying
goes...April showers bring May flowers...so just in time for May
:)

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR TAFs will be expected through the period with winds being
the main aviation hazard. Winds will remain light overnight,
shifting to the south before increasing Monday morning. Late
morning and afternoon south/southwesterly winds will be
sustained between 20-30 mph with gusts upwards of 35-40 mph.
Have taken out gusts around sunset Monday as the BL decouples,
but still could see occasional gusts up to 25-30 mph
periodically Monday evening. Rain chances will also increase
along a southeast-moving cold front, but has been kept out of
the TAF at this time for low confidence in location.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer