Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 180934
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RECENT FORECAST MODEL RUNS NOW SHIFT FORMER HURRICANE ODILES
REMNANT MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS TODAY...THEN
FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER
SOUTHEAST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FARTHER WEST
THROUGH TODAY. OTHERWISE...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DRAWS
A MODERATE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ODILES TRACK CONTINUES TO BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN WITH THE LATEST
MODELS GENERALLY INITIALIZING TOO FAR NORTH WITH SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE CANADIAN MODEL SEEMED TO INITIALIZE BETTER THAN
THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE SPC SSEO FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY MORNING
SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT...SO WE LEANED TOWARD THAT PROGNOSIS WITH THE POP
FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF ODILES
REMNANTS...WITH THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CA
COAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL DRAW A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH NM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MODESTLY GUSTY E CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY SHOULD FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF ZONES...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS.
THEN THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD MOVE MORE SQUARELY OVER NM
ON MONDAY FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE E SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND E OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
FAVORED TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHIFTS
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME FARTHER EAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ODILE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE ENE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 WILL SEE WETTING RAINS...BUT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
AS ODILE BEGINS TO EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY...THE FOCUS WILL BE
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN
PLAINS...THOUGH AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
AND THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS FRIDAY....OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CHANGE LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS READINGS...REMAINING WELL BELOW
NORMAL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE. WEAK WARMING WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE WEST
FRIDAY...WHERE HIGHS WILL BECOME NEAR NORMAL...WHILE BELOW NORMAL
VALUES PERSIST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY BETTER VENT
RATES TODAY WILL BECOME FAIR TO POOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY.

AS ODILE EXITS WHILE BEING ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...MODELS POINT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE EASTERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
STRONG WINDS AND A DECENT MOISTURE SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT...BUT THE ECMWF MODEL IS LESS BULLISH. THIS COULD IMPACT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT CURRENT
THOUGHT ALIGNS WITH BULLISH GFS/NAM. GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL DROP
CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VENT RATES
WILL IMPROVE EACH DAY...THOUGH POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR VALUES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A WEAK RIDGE BREAKDOWN AS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW ROUNDS THE RIDGE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVE ACROSS
NORTHERN NM...BUT LITTLE ELSE IS EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND
INCREASES OR DRY SLOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. THAT SAID...A
WEAK DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NM. MODELS HINT AT A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH SYSTEM FOR THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD...BUT THEY REMAIN
INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL TO PUT ANY STOCK IN IT.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CROSSING INTO THE NM BOOT HEEL AND WILL
MOVE NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY 06Z THU
NIGHT. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND MT OBSCURATION OVER SOUTHERN NM
WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40 BY 00Z THU
AFTERNOON...AND SHIFT COVERAGE TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE BY
06Z THU NIGHT. TAFS CARRYING VCSH AND VCTS AT TIME OF GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF NEARBY ACTIVITY...WITH SCT CLOUD LAYERS AT LOWEST
EXPECTED CIG AFTER SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. VCFG IN FOR 03Z OR LATER
THU NIGHT FOR ROW...TCC...AND LVS WITH MT OBSCURATION REDEVELOPING.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  82  57  84  54 /  10  10  20  10
DULCE...........................  80  49  79  45 /  10  30  40  10
CUBA............................  75  53  79  51 /  20  40  50  20
GALLUP..........................  76  52  80  49 /  20  30  20  10
EL MORRO........................  69  51  74  48 /  30  40  40  20
GRANTS..........................  72  52  79  49 /  30  40  30  10
QUEMADO.........................  67  53  73  49 /  50  50  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  70  58  80  56 /  60  50  20  20
CHAMA...........................  74  44  75  41 /  10  30  50  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  74  54  76  52 /  10  50  50  20
PECOS...........................  70  53  72  52 /  20  60  60  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  73  47  75  43 /  10  30  50  20
RED RIVER.......................  65  44  69  45 /  10  30  60  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  69  46  69  42 /  10  40  70  30
TAOS............................  75  51  74  47 /  10  40  50  20
MORA............................  71  51  71  48 /  20  60  70  30
ESPANOLA........................  78  56  81  54 /  10  40  40  20
SANTA FE........................  72  54  75  53 /  20  50  50  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  75  56  79  55 /  20  50  50  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  75  58  79  55 /  30  50  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  74  61  80  60 /  30  50  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  74  62  81  61 /  30  50  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  76  61  83  61 /  30  50  40  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  74  62  81  61 /  40  60  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  77  60  84  60 /  30  50  40  20
SOCORRO.........................  72  61  83  60 /  60  60  40  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  73  56  79  56 /  30  60  50  20
TIJERAS.........................  74  57  78  55 /  30  60  50  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  71  56  76  54 /  30  70  60  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  68  54  73  54 /  30  60  60  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  68  57  73  54 /  70  70  60  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  67  60  76  57 /  90  80  50  30
RUIDOSO.........................  63  56  71  55 / 100 100  50  40
CAPULIN.........................  75  53  70  52 /  10  20  50  40
RATON...........................  77  52  77  50 /  10  30  50  20
SPRINGER........................  76  54  75  51 /  10  30  60  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  71  53  73  52 /  20  60  60  30
CLAYTON.........................  77  59  71  58 /  10  20  50  50
ROY.............................  73  57  72  57 /  20  40  70  50
CONCHAS.........................  75  62  74  61 /  30  50  60  50
SANTA ROSA......................  72  61  72  60 /  40  70  70  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  75  64  73  62 /  40  50  60  50
CLOVIS..........................  72  63  72  61 /  70  60  60  60
PORTALES........................  73  64  74  61 /  70  70  60  60
FORT SUMNER.....................  73  63  71  61 /  70  80  70  50
ROSWELL.........................  75  66  77  64 /  80  80  50  40
PICACHO.........................  68  61  74  60 /  90  90  50  30
ELK.............................  65  58  72  57 / 100 100  50  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ526-535>540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ508-509-520-524-525.

&&

$$

44




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