Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 312140
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
340 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Back door cold front has progressed into the northeast quarter of
New Mexico as of mid afternoon with a pre-frontal windshift well
out ahead of it to near a Roswell to Los Alamos line. Both of
these are helping to tweak up low level moisture levels in their
wakes with the result being isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorm development. This activity should continue for some
time into the evening hours, then perhaps trend down a little. The
greatest rainfall and strong storm potential should be near and a
little ways east of the central mountain chain. A few showers and
storms will also linger into the evening farther to the west...but
will produce significantly less rainfall. This pattern change will
yield a cooler, wetter weather pattern for Wednesday and to a
little lesser degree Thursday for most of the state, the exception
being areas mainly west of the Continental Divide. A good warmup
is expected late week into the weekend with storms chances
diminishing a good bit Friday, but perhaps ramping up east and
perhaps

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A pretty good crop of showers and thunderstorms has developed
along and some distance either side of the central mtn chain.
At least two synoptic scale boundaries exist across the fcst area,
or at least they did before storm outflows muddied the situation.
The more southerly boundary, likely a pre-frontal trough, as of
early aftn stretched from roughly Roswell to Los Alamos with the
actual back door front across far northeast NM. The main effect
will be a weak to moderate upslope flow established across the
the east half of the state tonight into Wed and to a lesser degree
Thu. Some moderate wind will accompany the front as it slides
down the eastern plains and should accelerate at least somewhat
through gaps and canyons of the central mountain chain. Currently
looking at sub wind advisory speeds into the Rio Grande Valley
starting between 5 or 6 pm and 8 or 9 pm and going well into the
eve, but there may be a few stronger pockets develop for a few
hours perhaps magnified by storm outflow boundaries. Higher
dewpoints will follow behind frontal passage and this coupled
with upslope flow on the eastern high plains and eastern faces of
both the central mountain chain and the continental divide will
fuel thunderstorm development Wed and to a lesser extent on
Thu. Temperatures will fall 10 to 15 degrees below average in
central to eastern NM Wednesday, rebounding slightly into
Thursday.

Some remnant moisture will be available for recycling on Friday,
but fcst models have, for the past couple days now, trended toward
less precip coverage so pops were lowered a bit, though not as
drastically as model averages. Upslope areas of the higher
terrain will be best storm candidates Fri with slight chances
continuing over the high terrain Sat. A highly amplified ridge of
high pressure aloft will set up over the western U.S. while a
wind shift could potentially slide into eastern NM with some
moisture advection helping storm chances, espec by Sun. Daytime
temps will fall back a few degrees in the east into Sunday due to
the aforementioned wind shift.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Overall forecast theme remains the same. Today was the main
transition day with cooler and more moist conditions on tap for the
majority of the area through Thursday. The AZ border country will
experience the driest conditions during this period. A budding
atmospheric ridge will develop over the intermountain west as the
week progresses and influence more and more of our weather late week
into the weekend. This means a warming and drying trend from west to
east. The main fly in the ointment will be back door cold frontal
surges across the eastern plains. The extended period looks to be
muddled with less confidence due to the interplay between Pacific
lows and the upper ridge. Models are having a hard time dealing with
the low which is to be expected.

The squeeze play between the cut off Pacific low currently located
over southern AZ/northern Mexico and the translating
westward/southward back door cold front will continue during the
rest of today into tonight. Humidity recoveries will be much higher
tonight compared to last night. Drier storms will be found across
western areas and the wetter variety will be found across
central/eastern areas. Gusty outflow wind will be most prevalent
across fire weather zones 105/106 and 109 or southwest portions of
the forecast area. Storms will also be slow to move and have
erratic motions.

High confidence for a moisture gradient to set up between the Rio
Grande Valley and AZ state line Wednesday. Based on the time of
year...this means extra shower and thunderstorm activity favoring
the western highlands and southern portions of the forecast area. A
mix of dry and wet activity, meaning small footprints of wetting
rain, would be found west of the Rio Grande Valley. Wetter activity
elsewhere. The strongest gust potential due to the drier storms
would be found near the AZ state line and Four Corners area.
Humidity values will be unusually high east of the Continental Divide
with below normal temps. Mixing heights will be much lower although
remain on the higher side west of the Continental Divide. Much more
stable across the east.

There is high confidence that the atmosphere will experience a
transition Thursday/Friday as the cut off Pacific low slowly moves
off to the east and ridging takes over. Transport and storm steering
flow will change to a more northerly direction. Storms would tend to
favor the central mountain chain as the residual moisture recycles
out in the form or showers and thunderstorms. Western areas would
also experience some drier showers and thunderstorms but the
coverage would lessen. Expecting near to a little above normal
temperatures on Friday across the majority of the area.

The GFS/ECMWF and Canadian models are picking up on another back
door cold frontal surge late Friday or early Saturday. This would
jive with the atmospheric ridge pattern over the intermountain west.
How far the extra moisture surges westward is always a question mark
with these types of flows but anticipate a further west progression
due to thunderstorm outflow enhancement. The current RH forecast
grids may not reflect that as well. Either way...lower humidity and
warmer temperatures would be found near the AZ state line.
Thunderstorm coverage would most likely increase due to this feature
with wetting moisture favoring the central mountains eastward.

Early next week will largely be determined by the next Pacific low
and ridge interplay. As suspected...the models are having a hard
time dealing with the interplay. Suspect the upper low will end up
being more of a player during the earlier half of next week and
perhaps intensify storm coverages across the forecast area. Just way
to early to say one way or the other so confidence is not as good
during this period.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Lots of aviation hazards today due to the upper and lower level
pattern. The western half will be impacted by higher based SH/TS.
Pretty hit and miss with slow storm motions and erratic behavior.
Gusts between 30 to 45 kt for a short duration possible with this
activity through the early to mid eve. More widespread SH/TS will
be found along the east slopes of the central mtns eastward during
day and night period. This is due to a back door cold front. Use
vis restrictions for some of the eastern activity. Eventually the
atmosphere will stabilize across the east and lead to low cigs/vis
restrictions. Likely terminals to be impacted include LVS and TCC
although more LVS in terms of IFR/LIFR possibilities. Central
terminal sites such as ABQ/AEG/SAF could also experience some
lower decks although intermittent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  52  84  52  88 /   5   5   5   5
Dulce...........................  39  73  39  78 /  20  40  40  30
Cuba............................  43  73  42  78 /  20  50  30  30
Gallup..........................  43  80  43  85 /  10  10  10   5
El Morro........................  41  72  40  79 /  10  20  20  10
Grants..........................  43  75  41  82 /  10  20  20  10
Quemado.........................  44  75  45  81 /  10  20  10   5
Glenwood........................  51  81  53  86 /   5   5   5   5
Chama...........................  38  66  38  71 /  30  70  40  60
Los Alamos......................  50  69  48  73 /  20  50  40  40
Pecos...........................  45  65  44  72 /  50  70  40  50
Cerro/Questa....................  41  67  41  73 /  50  60  50  40
Red River.......................  38  57  37  63 /  60  70  50  60
Angel Fire......................  36  60  33  65 /  60  70  50  60
Taos............................  42  69  41  76 /  30  40  30  40
Mora............................  41  62  40  69 /  60  60  40  60
Espanola........................  48  75  48  80 /  20  30  30  20
Santa Fe........................  49  68  49  74 /  30  50  40  40
Santa Fe Airport................  48  72  48  77 /  30  40  30  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  56  73  54  80 /  10  40  40  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  76  55  82 /  10  30  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  54  77  51  84 /  10  30  30  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  77  53  83 /  10  30  30  10
Los Lunas.......................  54  79  52  84 /  10  30  30  10
Rio Rancho......................  54  77  53  82 /  10  30  30  10
Socorro.........................  54  81  53  85 /  10  30  30  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  70  49  76 /  20  50  40  30
Tijeras.........................  53  73  49  79 /  20  50  40  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  72  45  79 /  40  50  30  30
Clines Corners..................  47  65  45  73 /  50  60  50  30
Gran Quivira....................  49  69  46  75 /  30  50  40  20
Carrizozo.......................  50  73  51  76 /  10  40  40  20
Ruidoso.........................  42  64  44  68 /  30  60  50  50
Capulin.........................  46  65  46  74 /  60  50  30  40
Raton...........................  47  69  45  76 /  70  50  30  30
Springer........................  50  70  50  77 /  60  50  30  20
Las Vegas.......................  45  64  44  72 /  70  50  40  40
Clayton.........................  51  71  50  78 /  50  30  20  10
Roy.............................  50  68  48  74 /  60  50  30  20
Conchas.........................  57  74  55  79 /  60  50  30  20
Santa Rosa......................  55  71  52  77 /  70  50  40  20
Tucumcari.......................  54  75  53  80 /  60  50  30  10
Clovis..........................  55  70  53  76 /  70  50  40  20
Portales........................  57  70  55  75 /  70  50  40  30
Fort Sumner.....................  55  73  53  77 /  70  50  40  20
Roswell.........................  59  77  58  80 /  40  60  50  40
Picacho.........................  51  71  51  74 /  30  60  50  40
Elk.............................  46  65  48  69 /  30  60  50  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

43


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