Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KABQ 020929
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
329 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER OVER NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER FOR A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SHIFT LATE IN THE WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHEN A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WEST COAST AND A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
TEXAS WILL DRAW MONSOON-LIKE MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER NEW MEXICO
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS LOOK FAVORED FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR AND BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
OVER THE DESERT SW THROUGH MONDAY...LENDING SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE
PROSPECT OF MONSOON-LIKE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT FRIDAY ONWARD.
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING WHILE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE W COAST MAY DRAW A LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE INTO SE AND E CENTRAL AREAS WITH THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING
OUT AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEN MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS FOR PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN TO CROSS THE NM BORDER FROM
AZ AND MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW ON THE S CA COAST IS FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM IN THE PROCESS...AS THE
UPPER HIGH LINGERS OVER TX.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKDOWN PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD
TODAY AS STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ADVANCES EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM WILL
BE SCOURED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE SCALE DRY INTRUSION MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SW. SINGLE DIGIT MIN RH WILL BE COMMON OVER
NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA WITH TEMPS AVERAGING 5 TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL TREND UPWARD WITH SOME CRITICAL FIRE WX EXPECTED FOR A
COUPLE HOURS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL IS LIMITED
DUE TO GREEN UP AND SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT. POOR TO FAIR RECOVERIES
AND HIGH HAINES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS PATTERN WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER TEXAS WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW AN OVERALL SOUTH TO NORTH MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TO
DEVELOP OVER NM THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS IMPORTANT
AS TWO WELL-DEVELOPED TROPICAL SYSTEMS ROAMING THE EASTERN PACIFIC
ATTEMPT TO DELIVER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE GENERAL CIRCULATION.
AT THIS TIME THE FIRST SYSTEM...ANDRES...MAY IMPACT MORE OF ARIZONA
AND WESTERN NM WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY...CLOUD COVER...AND POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAINS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM...
BLANCA...MAY BE THE MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM FOR NM MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS SOME PORTION OF THE FEATURE SLIDES OVERHEAD. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS HOWEVER THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...
HIGHER HUMIDITY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...AND LIMITED FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION HAZARDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF A FEW POCKETS OF IFR CIGS
OR VSBY IN FAR EAST CENTRAL NM BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z TUE AS
SIGNIFICANT DEGREE OF LOW LVL MOISTURE LINGERS THERE INTO MID
MORN. WHILE TCC WOULD BE THE SITE TO BE IMPACTED IF IT OCCURS...
THE CHANCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FOR THAT SITE.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  88  49  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  82  40  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  82  45  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  86  42  83  41 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  83  43  82  42 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  86  41  84  41 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  84  46  83  44 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  89  49  87  48 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  76  39  76  38 /   5   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  84  52  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  84  50  84  50 /   5   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  80  45  82  44 /   5   0   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  69  39  71  39 /   5   0   5   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  73  41  75  41 /   5   0   5   0
TAOS............................  82  43  83  42 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  81  47  82  46 /   5   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  89  51  88  50 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  84  53  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  88  51  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  90  58  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  91  58  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  94  55  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  93  56  90  55 /   5   5   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  94  54  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  92  55  90  54 /   5   5   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  94  55  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  86  52  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  88  51  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  87  44  87  45 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  85  50  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  87  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  89  57  88  58 /   5   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  83  51  83  52 /  10   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  86  52  88  52 /   5   0   5   5
RATON...........................  86  49  88  49 /   5   0   5   5
SPRINGER........................  88  48  90  50 /   0   0   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  85  48  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  91  56  94  57 /   5   0   5   5
ROY.............................  89  50  89  52 /   0   0   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  96  56  97  58 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  95  55  96  56 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  96  57  98  59 /   5   0   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  92  57  94  58 /  10   0   5   0
PORTALES........................  94  59  95  61 /  10   0   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  95  58  97  58 /   5   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  97  57 100  58 /  10   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  93  57  94  57 /  10   0   0   0
ELK.............................  86  57  87  57 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.