Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 261751 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1051 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SW HALF OF
FCST AREA THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE AND OVERSPREAD REST OF THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN AND ESPEC OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH AT LEAST 27/08Z. THEREAFTER THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HIGHER MTN OBSCURATIONS MOSTLY NEAR AND SW OF A LINE FROM
DULCE TO ROW...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED HIGHER
TERRAIN -SHRA AND -SHSN.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NEW MEXICO WILL RESIDE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY...ALLOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY ANY
REMNANT SNOW IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH SOME MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS INTO
WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS BEING CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOSTLY ABOVE 8500 TO
9000 FEET. LOOK FOR DRIER CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PLUNGE INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEFORE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT BEGINS UNFOLDING
WITH ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS DEFINED BY A CONTINENTAL RIDGE NORTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL LOW OVER WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH AMERICA...NOT QUITE A
TEXTBOOK REX BLOCK SINCE THE FEATURES ARE SHOWING SOME MOVEMENT.
THE SUBTROPICAL LOW HAS BEEN RETROGRADING WESTWARD...AND THE RIDGE
WILL BE QUICKLY LOSING AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS AS
IT SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS OVER NM
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS
OF THE STATE LATE TODAY AND MORE-SO TONIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL EXCEED NORMALS BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES IN MANY ZONES. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL LIKELY NOT COMMENCE UNTIL
THE EVENING WHEN SOME SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...GRADUALLY WORKING INTO REMAINING WESTERN
ZONES. BY THIS TIME THE BAJA LOW WILL BE WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN
WAVE...MAKING ITS WAY INLAND TO THE SOUTHERN CA DESERTS. SOME LOW
10 PERCENT POPS WERE LEFT IN OVER THE RIO GRANDE ZONES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT AM SKEPTICAL THAT ANYTHING WILL MAKE IT THAT
FAR EAST.

INTO TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE INLAND WAVE WILL WEAKEN EVEN
MORE AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO NV. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS
TO STEADILY DISPERSE OVER NM...AND POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AS ISOLATED
AT 20 PERCENT OR LESS IN MOST ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
EXCEED NORMAL TUESDAY. A WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
ESTABLISHED...BUT THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY NOTABLE SURFACE WINDS.

IT IS INTERESTING HOW THE FLOW EVOLVES MORE WESTERLY OVER NM INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY STEER ANY LINGERING ENERGY FROM
THE BAJA LOW BACK TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BASICALLY
SKIMMING THE CO/NM BORDER. THIS MAY KEEP A FEW STRAY SHOWERS GOING
OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES OF NM WEDNESDAY...AND THE STRONGER
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL JUXTAPOSE SOME STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF NM. THIS COUPLED WITH THE
LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WOULD YIELD SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. TEMPERATURES
WOULD AGAIN RETAIN THEIR HIGHER THAN NORMAL TREND WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO NM. THE ORIGIN OF
THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL BE CONTINENTAL...BUT NOT ARCTIC. LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES...BUT READINGS WILL NOT BE BITTERLY
COLD LIKE SOME FRONTAL INTRUSIONS THIS SEASON. BY
THURSDAY...INTERESTING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL ALSO COME INTO
PLAY OVER NM AND THE GREATER SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS ANOTHER EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH ORGANIZES OVER THE REGION. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MAKE A TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...ADVECTING IT INTO
NM...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS MODEL. A HEALTHY
DOSE OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WOULD UNFOLD THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING. SNOW WOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS INITIALLY...AND PERIODICALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
THIS BAJA TROUGH LOOKS TO DEEPEN INTO A LOW AND STAY CUT OFF FROM
PARENT FLOW OF EITHER BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM...AND THIS COULD
LEAD TO A HARD TO PINPOINT TRAJECTORY THAT WILL BE A SLOW AND
WOBBLY ONE. THIS COULD INCREASE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF
PRECIPITATION OVER NM THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENT RATES WILL DOMINATE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE A WARMING TREND TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN UPPER
LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL MUSCLE IT/S WAY INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE
GREAT BASIN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BECOME
DEEPER AND MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD TONIGHT AND FROM
THE WEST CENTRAL...OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TUESDAY.

WHAT/S LEFT OF THE LOW WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY WITH MEAGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN...AND WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING OVER THE NORTH AND EAST...IN
PARTICULAR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SANDIA AND MANZANO MTS AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SOME
DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST DUE TO THE STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND SOME IMPROVEMENTS IN VENT RATES NOTED...MAINLY
FROM THE SANDIA AND MANZANO MTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND FAR
NORTHEAST. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE POOR TO
MARGINALLY FAIR RATES WEDNESDAY. AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM TRACKS TO
OUR NORTHEAST...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE INTO NEW MEXICO...BRINGING A
COOL DOWN AND A PERIOD OF MOISTENING EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE RGV APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD OCCUR BY SATURDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER LOW COULD DEVELOP TO
OUR WEST...AND TRACK INTO ARIZONA...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT OF THE LOW/S MOVEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY OR SUNDAY
BUT THEREAFTER NOT SO GOOD.

VENT RATES IMPROVE THURSDAY...DUE TO STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS...BUT
WORSEN AGAIN FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES PROGRESSIVELY SLIDE TO 5 TO
15 OR EVEN 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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