Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 191143 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
543 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

VFR mid and high level clouds will continue to stream northward as
monsoon moisture begins to return to the area. Isolated -SHRA or
-TSRA may be encountered before 18Z east of the central mountain
 chain mainly within a corridor from vicinity of Clines Corners to
 Vaughn to Corona. As the day progresses, an uptick in thunderstorm
 coverage is expected after 18Z with isolated to scattered TSRA
 favoring areas east of the Divide to the east slopes of the central
 mountain chain during the early to mid afternoon. Weak west to east
 steering winds should bring some convection out across the high
 plains to include KTCC during late afternoon or evening hours. A
 tropical disturbance slowly drifting northward tonight from far
 southern NM should keep a few -SHRA/-TSRA going well into the night
 and early morning Sunday. KJ


.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017...
A return to active monsoon weather is expected starting tonight and
becoming more widespread Sunday through Monday. The potential for
locally heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding will
increase as well, especially for the central and east. High
temperatures will cool below normal Sunday and Monday. An active
weather pattern will continue until next weekend when the upper high
center is forecast to build over the Great Basin. Chances for
showers and storms would be reduced over the west but could be
enhanced by any frontal boundaries impacting eastern New Mexico.


The monsoon moisture is returning after a short absence the last
couple of days. Friday`s 12Z EPZ sounding measured an increase in
PWAT back over 1 inch, which didn`t decrease much at 00Z. GOES 16
mid level imagery shows a steady increase in moisture from southwest
over east central NM. Lower level imagery detects some spottier
increases but still trending towards wetter. At the same time deeper
moisture increases, a mid level circulation is indicated tracking
over southwest NM and northeast over the state Sunday/Sunday night.
Some timing and placement differences in the models though
where/when the heavier rainfall associated with the circulation will
have the most impact, but the southeast half to two thirds of the
forecast area appear to see the best chances for a swath of heavy
rainfall, while the far northwest will again see the smallest pops.
Therefore, will hold off on issuing a flash flood watch for now. The
MET guidance is considerably cooler with it`s high and low
temperature forecast for Sunday and Sunday night than the rest of
the /guidance/ pack, leaned toward a little warmer MAV/ECMWF mix for
both highs and lows.

NAM12 indicates a less active Monday while the GFS suggests there
may be additional weak disturbances moving over the southeast half
of the forecast area, with precipitation favoring the central
mountain chain and portions of the eastern plains. Monday night and
Tuesday may be a little less active overall but a frontal boundary
Tuesday night in combination of the exit of the upper trough to our
west will initiate a busy weather period for Tuesday night into
Thursday. Thereafter, the upper high center organizes over the Great
Basin/Four Corners region. This may make for somewhat drier weather
over the west next weekend, while the east will be susceptible to
frontal passages and at times northwest flow aloft, enhancing
convective activity.

After today, high temperatures through next weekend will be below
average while overnight lows will remain above normal.


Minimum RH will trend upward today for all but the far eastern
plains, owing to gradually increasing atmospheric moisture/cloud
cover that will take the edge off the recent heat.  This will be
especially the case east of the Divide to the east slopes of the
central mountain chain, where isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms return to the forecast this afternoon and evening
following several days of unseasonably dry and warm weather.

More substantial air mass moistening will take place areawide during
the second half of the weekend with forecast minRH values on Sunday
generally in the 30s to lower 40s. This will be in stark contrast to
yesterday and the previous day when minRH vales in the 10 to 15
percent range were common across central and western areas.
Nighttime RH recovery will also be greatly improved in the coming
days as atmospheric moisture content continues to trend upward,
which will result in cooler daytime highs and warmer nighttime lows
Sunday and Sunday night.

Clockwise flow around high pressure aloft consolidating over central
TX will be complemented by southerly flow downstream of a baggy
trough just offshore southern CA today through Monday that will
result in this monsoon burst pattern. The traditional monsoon flow
will initially favor southwest and south-central NM extending to the
east slopes of the Sandia/Manzano mountains and southern Sangres
today. Deeper moisture will gradually advance northward tonight into
Sunday. Models still consistent advertising a slow-moving tropical
wave embedded within the monsoon plume that will likely maintain
active showers and thunderstorms through the overnight tonight into
Sunday mainly south of I-40, with even more widespread activity.
expected Sunday night into early Monday. The Rio Grande Valley
corridor, neighboring central mountain chain and areas farther east
look to realize the most widespread, heaviest thunderstorm-rainfall.

Sufficient moisture will remain in place Monday and Tuesday for
robust rounds of showers and thunderstorms although high pressure
aloft should recenter more over NM during this period.   Also
watching for the next backdoor cold front into northeast NM Tuesday
evening or night.  At the same time, the southern CA trough will
begin to shift farther eastward during the mid-week period.  These
two features should significantly boost storm coverage Wednesday
through Friday before drying commences next weekend.  KJ




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