Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 271145 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
445 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TODAY. A DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH WILL MAKE WINDS GUSTY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NE AREAS.
ALSO...HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN AREAS TODAY
BEFORE SPREADING TO INCLUDE CENTRAL AND SOME SOUTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...257 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SPECTACULAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE TYPICAL BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW AREAS WILL NEAR RECORD
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY FROM LAS VEGAS TO SANTA
ROSA...TUCUMCARI...FORT SUMNER...AND CLOVIS. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER NO
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 700-300MB LAYER WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF DRAMATICALLY IN THE PAST
24 HOURS AS A 584DM H5 RIDGE CRESTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN NM. THE WEAK
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY IS VEERING TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH LEE TROUGHING DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. AS A RESULT TEMPS WILL TREND 10-20F WARMER TODAY FOR THE EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH 700-500MB LAYER WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KTS.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE LEE TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY AND LEAD TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. RECORD HIGHS ARE IN ORDER FOR THE AREA FROM LAS
VEGAS TO SANTA ROSA...TUCUMCARI...FT SUMNER AND CLOVIS FRIDAY. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH MORE RECORD
HIGH TEMPS. 700MB TEMPS OF +10C OVER THE PLAINS WILL PUSH +2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARMER
TEMPS FOR THE EAST...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AS 700-500MB LAYER WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS.

BY SUNDAY...TEMPS WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL MOST AREAS. THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING
OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE EAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THIS WILL BE A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TEMPS MONDAY WILL TREND 15 TO 25F COLDER
THAN SUNDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK IS EVEN WORSE THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS
AGO. A HIGHLY COMPLEX PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE EQUATORIAL EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL BATTLE OUT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE BIG CHANGE NOTED WITH
THE BULK OF EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS RETREAT OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS MAY BE THE FIRST INDICATION OF A LARGER
SCALE PATTERN CHANGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A DECREASING CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AND/OR WIND TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WORK
WEEK...AND MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING VERY WELL ON THIS POSSIBILITY.

AS NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND A LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 9 TO 26 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. RECORD HIGH READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW TREND DOWNWARD
SATURDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
IN THE EAST AND THROUGH TUESDAY OUT WEST.  HUMIDITIES THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD...BEFORE REBOUNDING MOST PLACES
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE COOLING TEMPERATURES.
CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS FRIDAY. THEY WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY
BEFORE LINGERING IN POCKETS ACROSS THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND STOUT LEE TROUGH SHOULD INDUCE SUSTAINED WEST WINDS
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE DOWN THE I-40 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SUNDAY. WITH THE LOW
HUMIDITIES A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ZONE.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A MARKED DECREASE
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES BY 10 TO 25 DEGREES IN THE EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT A LEE TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AGAIN. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO SPIKE
UPWARD ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY...ONLY TO FALL AGAIN WITH THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON TUESDAY.

ITS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WETTING
PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COMING WORK
WEEK...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME WIND.  THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN
FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATTERN TO RECENT ECMWF RUNS BY WEAKENING A WEST
COAST TROUGH AND PASSING IT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND N OF NM. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS IS VERY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...SO ITS DIFFICULT
TO SAY WHEN THERE MAY BE ANY PRECIPITATION OR WIND.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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