Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 011156 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
556 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE ALONG AND W OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE FROM THE NW MTS WESTWARD ACROSS THE NW
PLATEAU...WHERE COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME SCT AT TIMES. MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. FURTHER...WINDS MAY BECOME
GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN MOST PLACES
SUNDAY AS THE JET STREAM MOVES OVERHEAD...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THE GILA CLIFF DWELLINGS TO CLAYTON.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT THEN DRY AND MORE
TRANQUIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...UNLESS YOU LIKE THE
EUROPEAN SOLUTION.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE WITH
SHOWERS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS...HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. MODELS REMAIN FAR DIFFERENT IN THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE
BRINGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE FORECAST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE RADAR WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS MORNING WHILE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WEST COAST STORM MOVES EAST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH A BIG DROP IN TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH WESTERN MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. SOME MODEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE SAN JUAN AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT DISCUSSING THE CHANGING WEATHER TO THE
LAND OF ENCHANTMENT.

THE STORM WILL CROSS NM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. BELOW FREEZING READINGS
WILL BE LIKELY ON THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FLOOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS. PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT DWINDLE TUESDAY...LINGERING PRIMARILY
IN THE EAST.

ALL BETS ARE OFF ON WHAT HAPPENS THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE GFS
TAKES THE TROUGH THROUGH NM BEFORE IT DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER
MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX WEDNESDAY. CANADIAN DOES NOT
FORM A CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTH. THE EUROPEAN NOT ONLY DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW BUT DOES SO WELL WEST OF THE GFS...OVER SOUTHERN AZ
TO BAJA CA TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY. THEN IT DRIFTS THE LOW SLOWLY
NORTHEAST INTO NM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ACCELERATING
IT NORTHEAST. THE EUROPEAN EVEN AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIVING INTO NM FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS ARE TRYING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRICKY LONG
WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY EXITING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. THEY DO A
PRETTY GOOD JOB AGREEING UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE TROUGHS ENERGY CUTS OFF AS A CLOSED LOW S OF NM OR OVER S TX.
UNTIL THEN...A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE LONG
WAVE FEATURE WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES...ONE
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...AND ANOTHER EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 100-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE HEADED THIS WAY
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD HAVE AMPLE
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND W OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL BE
FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY...BUT THIS FAVORED AREA SHOULD SHIFT
GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WHEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE. BY
MONDAY...A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
FROM SW TO NE LEAVING N CENTRAL AND SE AREAS FAVORED FOR SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY
VARY FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH IN SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH
THE DRY SLOT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HELPING THE CROSSING COLD CORE
SYSTEM ALOFT TO DROP THE SNOW LEVEL. THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE N
MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE SNOW EACH PERIOD THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE BEST ACCUMULATION SHOULD COME
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WHEN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW
AS 6500 FEET ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION AND ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS COULD ACCUMULATE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW.
STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD REACH
AROUND 4 INCHES MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET.

WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER FACTOR AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH STEERS A
MODERATE SPEED MAXIMUM IN THE POLAR JET STREAM OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST AREAS TODAY...THEN THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE
SUNDAY WHEN THE JET STREAM IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND A STOUT LEE
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH OF A 1003 MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO.
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY ACROSS SW AND S CENTRAL
AREAS...BUT STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. GUSTS COULD PEAK IN THE 40 TO BRIEFLY 50 MPH
RANGE ACROSS THE NE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL DROP
IN EARNEST STARTING WITH THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. BY TUESDAY HIGHS SHOULD VARY FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CUT OFF LOW ESTABLISHES...THERE COULD BE SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WITH HIGHS REACHING 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
44

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
FOCUS FOR -SHRA/TSRA IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING QUICKLY NE OVER CENTRAL
NM AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR BENEATH HEAVIER CORES. MT OBSCURATIONS ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. SEVERAL PROFILES INDICATE MVFR
CIGS BTWN 020 AND 030 AT KSAF BY EARLY MORNING WHICH IS MUCH LOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. MODELS ARE ALSO SPREADING BETTER MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS EAST ONTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT SO INCREASED COVERAGE
OF SHRA AND LOWER CIGS INTO KLVS AND KROW LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE THE PREDOMINANT CONCERN SATURDAY WITH STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN
PLACE. A FEW -TSRA STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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