Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 261126 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
526 AM MDT MON SEP 26 2016
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. A few east to
southeasterly breezes are possible this afternoon, otherwise main
concern will be a few thunderstorms over and near the southwest
mtns this aftn and evening. Mid level cloud deck will persist from
near Quemado to KSRR and KROW.
.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT MON SEP 26 2016...
Low pressure circulation over northwest Old Mexico to drift westward
today, dragging clouds and moisture with it. At least a few showers
or thunderstorms are currently expected across roughly the south
quarter of the state Monday, across the southwest third to half of
the state Tuesday and roughly the western half Wednesday through
Thursday as the low and it`s associated moisture eject northward
over Arizona and the Four Corners. Highs will warm closer to average
by the end of the week, and drier and breezy conditions could
develop during the upcoming weekend.
Upper low circulation over northwest Old Mexico to drift westward
through early Tuesday, then lift northward into AZ and over the Four
Corners Tuesday through Wednesday. With the low position farther
south and west, pops were trimmed a bit for today and tonight.
Focus will shift to the southwest third to half tonight, then mainly
areas along and west of the Contdvd Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Wednesday into Thursday looks as if it could be the wettest period,
relatively speaking, for the west and central as the remnants of the
low and it`s moisture pass over the region. Thereafter a drying
trend with some afternoon breezes could develop, although the ECMWF
appears a bit wetter than the GFS for Friday.
High temperatures remain near to below average today into Tuesday,
then warm to near or above average for the rest of the week. That
said, highs do cool a bit in the east Thursday, as the western
extent of an area of sfc high pressure impacting the central plains
states, spreads into portions of the eastern plains.
Next week could be active, although not necessarily wet, as as
series of systems track through the northern and central Rockies in
west to northwest flow.
The upper level low has shifted quickly toward the Baja over the
last 12 hours or so. Dry air has overspread the northern half of
NM, and though drier conditions exist further south, there remains
a chance of showers and thunderstorms, particularly across the
west central highlands, this afternoon and evening. Otherwise,
high temperatures will remain below normal across all but the far
north, where temps will be near normal. Daytime humidities will
generally be between 20 and 30 percent. Ventilation will be good
to excellent near and south of I-40, while poor ventilation will
be the rule across the north.
The upper level low is expected to slowly weaken as it shifts north
over western AZ Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, some moisture
will be pulled northward into western NM. This will increase
thunderstorms chances west of the Rio Grande Valley each aftn/eve,
but other areas will remain dry. Temperatures will slowly increase
each day, and most areas will be at or above normal on Wednesday.
Ventilation will be poor for all but western NM on Tuesday,
improving on Wednesday for all but portions of the east central
Moisture values should continue to increase on Thursday. Though the
upper level low will have dampened out to a very weak trough by this
point, it should be lifting northeast near or just northwest of the
Four Corners area, perhaps providing just enough lift for a few more
storms to develop over NM, particularly the high terrain. Spotty
wetting rains are likely. Storm chances will continue on Friday,
though somewhat less widespread than Thursday. Drier air then looks
to move in next weekend. Ventilation rates do not look to be a
concern for most areas Thursday through the weekend.