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000
FXAK68 PAFC 062155
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST THU MAR 6 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA
WHICH IS LOOSELY CONNECTED TO ANOTHER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE
LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE SOUTH FROM LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS WEAKER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE GFS
PROVIDES A NICE "COMPROMISE" LOCATION...BUT IS POSSIBLY A BIT TOO
STRONG. THE ECMWF CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED DUE TO ITS RECENT SUPERIOR
PERFORMANCE...BUT IT IS AN OUTLIER IN THE SOLUTIONS. THE AFTERNOON
FORECASTS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS LOCATION FOR THE LOW...BUT WILL
BACK OFF THE STRENGTH A BIT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN LATER SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF WORKS ITS
WAY NORTH. ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SOME PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT LIKELY STAY EAST OF THE
ANCHORAGE AREA. FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE JUST HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDS
(AND MORNING FOG) WILL BE OVER THE AREA...AS THE UPPER HIGH MAY
"TRAP" SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE AREA WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FAIRLY COOL LOW LEVEL AIR MASS.


.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 132 150.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG MAR 14