Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 171507 AAA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
707 AM AKDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A longwave trough continues to dominate the pattern over Alaska.
The upper level low associated with this trough is currently
located over the northwest Arctic Coast with its trough axis
taking a meridional direction over the West Coast. The upper level
low will move south over the weekend to be located over the
southwest mainland on Sunday. This will generally keep conditions
cool and cloudy with rain showers for the next few days.

Models are in good agreement into Saturday. All have the upper
level low tracking south with Alaska under troughing through the
weekend. Models vary slightly on the exact placement of the low.
The slight differences in low placement are not expected to make a
big difference in weather scenarios for the short term.

On the surface several weak and disorganized low pressure centers
are located throughout the forecast area. The most significant of
these is a shortwave trough moving north from the Eastern
Interior through the Eastern Brooks Range. This system is expected
to produce up to an inch of additional rain in the upper Koyukuk
River Basin and along the the Dalton Highway. See the hydrology
section of the discussion for details. This low will also be a
good rain producer as it moves onto the North Slope later today
into tonight. Other low pressure centers will continue to produce
disorganized areas of rain showers. Some isolated thunderstorms
are also possible in the afternoons and evenings today and
tomorrow in the Eastern Interior and Eastern Brooks Range in
association with a thermal trough in that area.

Also of note are some areas of elevated wind speeds in the Bering
Strait, Chukchi Sea and along the Eastern Alaska Range. In the
Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea winds will be out of the northwest
the next couple of days and are associated with a tight pressure
gradient. No significant impacts are expected. Along the Eastern
Alaska Range some gap winds will be present today with winds
gusting to around 35 mph.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER...No issues with the cool wet pattern.

HYDROLOGY...Rivers and streams in the central Brooks Range, such
as in the Koyukuk river basin, are rising from recent rains. The
additional rainfall tonight and into Thursday will bring water
levels to near bankfull on some smaller streams but flooding is
not anticipated at this time. A similar scenario is expected on
some of the north draining rivers as well. Recent cooler
temperatures aloft in the eastern Alaska Range and Wrangels has
significantly slowed down glacial runoff into the Tanana River.
The Tanana River near Tok has dropped considerably during the past
24 hours and overland flow causing flooding near the Tetlin
Village Road and high water along the Alaska Hwy should begin to
recede some during the next few days.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
The Flood Advisory for zone 224 in the Tetlin Village Road areas
through Friday.

&&

$$

AUG 17


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