Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 282101
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
101 PM AKDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE WELL WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THROUGH THE MID RANGE. WILL USE AN
EVENLY WEIGHTED BLEND AGAIN TODAY FOR THE SHORT TERM. THERE STILL
REMAINS SOME CONCENSUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH THE MODELS
MAINTAINING THE LOW OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC AS IT OSCILLATES AROUND
WITH RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC AND A RATHER FAST...AND
ACTIVE...WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A 512 DAM CLOSED
LOW OVER 77N 170W IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO BE OVER 74N 161W BY LATE
FRIDAY. THE LOW BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY ON SATURDAY AS IT
OSCILLATES NEAR 75N BETWEEN 160W AND 170W. WEAK RIDGING WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE AND WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. A
SHORTWAVE EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC THIS
AFTERNOON OVER 164W AND WILL MOVE TO EXTEND FROM 75N 165W TO OVER
ATQASUK TO TANANA TO ANCHORAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN FROM 76N
165W TO OVER POINT THOMPSON TO FORT YUKON TO KENNY LAKE BY
SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND...WEAKER...SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN OFF THE
LOW EARLY SATURDAY AND MOVE OVER THE BERING STRAIT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. AT 850 HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM LIES FROM NUIQSUT TO AMBLER TO
KOYUK TO CAPE ROMANZOF THEN WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE TO
LIE FROM BARTER TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO SLEETMUTE TO NUNIVAK
ISLAND TO ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MOVES TO COVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ALASKA RANGE NORTH BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
PUSHED SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT IS
WORKING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE TAIL STALLS OVER THE
LOWER YUKON DELTA. A LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTON SOUND AND WILL
MOVE INTO THE UPPER KOBUK AND KOYUKUK AREA TONIGHT...AND INTO THE
UPPER YUKON FLATS BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE FLATS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL SWING DOWN OUT OF
THE ARCTIC OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST ON SUNDAY AND MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS YET ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
MIDWEEK.

ARCTIC COAST...FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE
MOVED EAST OF BARROW AND WILL CONTINUE THE EASTWARD TREK THROUGH
FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AIR AND OPEN WATER LOOK FOR STRATUS AND
AREAS OF FOG IN THE COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
AROUND FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT NOT MUCH LOWER
AS THEY ARE MODIFIED BY THE OPEN WATER...INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LOWS FALLING TO THE TEENS IN THE
BROOKS RANGE AND INTERIOR AREAS OF THE ARCTIC PLAIN. SNOW IN THE
BROOKS RANGE IS WORKING ITS WAY EAST AND STILL LOOKS LIKE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY UP TO 6 INCHES DEPENDING ON WHEN THE
COLD AIR CATCHES UP TO THE FRONT. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT ARE GUSTY
TO UP TO 30 MPH...BUT EXPECT THEM TO TAPER BACK AS THE FRONT LOSES
SOME MOMENTUM THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO
25 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE COLD AIR SURGES IN.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SHOWERS OVER THE NORTON SOUND
AREA WILL BE ENDING AS THEY MOVE INLAND TO THE MIDDLE YUKON
TONIGHT THEN ENDING OVERNIGHT IN THE MIDDLE YUKON AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES EAST. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THIS ONE IT
WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE THE STRATUS CEILING RETURNS. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR SO LOOK FOR SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE INLAND AREAS THAT CLEAR
OUT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME. A LITTLE WINDY ON THE
COAST WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS...BUT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND.

INTERIOR...SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT ARE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH WILL FALL
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ALASKA RANGE
AS COLD AIR FROM THE ARCTIC PUSHES SOUTH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE THE PASSES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NOT MUCH
WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE PASSES IN THE ALASKA RANGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NORTHWEST WINDS AND WAVES
PERSIST...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WETTING RAINS TONIGHT THEN COOLER TEMPERATURES SO
NO ISSUES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...QPF NUMBERS ARE PRETTY LOW SO NO ISSUES AS ALL RIVERS
REMAIN IN BANKS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB AUG 14


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