Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 312234
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
234 PM AKDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 12Z
ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD IN THE THE SHORT AND MID TERM IS QUITE
REASONABLE BUT CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS FROM RUN TO RUN AND
BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES IN THE LONG RANGE.

A 524 DAM LOW AT 500 HPA CENTERED NEAR 80N AND 165W WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST TO BE LOCATED NEAR 76N AND 155W SATURDAY
MORNING AND 76N AND 145 W SUNDAY MORNING. A 576 DAM RIDGE AT 500
HPA OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
TO BE CENTERED NEAR ADAK SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL BUILD NORTH TO
NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A 1002 MB LOW 150 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT BARROW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH AND EAST AND WILL BE LOCATED 200 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE AS
A 1000 MB LOW SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL DEEPEN TO 995 MB AND BE
LOCATED 350 NM NORTHWEST OF DEMARCATION POINT BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
A SECOND LOW AROUND 1002 MB MOVES NORTH AND EAST TO BE LOCATED
NEAR WRANGLE ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE
SUNDAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP AND GUSTY WINDS.

AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
SATURDAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AND WILL INCREASE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHES HOWEVER AGGRESSIVE FIRE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED OF LATE
WITH CONDITIONS NOT MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
SMOKE PRODUCTION AGAIN WITH THE FIRES IN THE INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND MOISTURE LEVELS DROP.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH AHEAD OF
THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTH SLOPE COMBINED WITH
MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF
FAIRBANKS WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECOND FRONT MOVING OVER
THE NORTH SLOPE ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN INCREASE WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR ON SUNDAY. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RAGE. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MET OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER FIRE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WILL SMOKE PRODUCTION OVER THE WEEKEND IN
THESE AREAS. A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR NEXT WEEK WILL FURTHER ADD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INTERIOR...RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL AND THREAT FOR SLOW
MOVING HEAVY PRECIP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETREATS OUT OF THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR TO ONLY COVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR BY SUNDAY.
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH FACES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF
FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENT RIVER LEVELS ARE
LOW...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR WATER RISES IN SMALL
STREAMS AS UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTH SLOPE OF THE BROOKS RANGE SUNDAY AS THE SECOND FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ219.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

$$

CCC JUL 15



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