Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 212354
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
354 PM AKDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...STRONG RIDGE OVER EASTERN AK WILL BUILD SOME OVER THE
WEEKEND WHILE DRIFTING EAST INTO CANADA LATER SAT AND SUN
RESULTING IN THE RIDGE AXIS TILTED NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN AK.
LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL ROTATE NORTH WHILE A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FROM WRANGELL ISLAND TO THE BERING STRAIT MOVES
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND FRI...TO EXTEND ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA
THEN SOUTHEAST TO INUVIK CANADA 4PM FRI. A SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY 10 PM FRI AND THEN NORTH TO EXTEND FROM
WRANGELL ISLAND TO KOTZEBUE SOUND TO ANCHORAGE 4AM SUN. FORMER
TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA TONIGHT
THEN MOVING SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE SOUTH BERING SEA SAT THEN
CURVING NORTH TO SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND 4PM SUN.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH FROM FORT YUKON TO NORTHWAY WILL DRIFT
EAST INTO CANADA OVERNIGHT...THEN REFORM OVER THE TANANA VALLEY
FRI. OLD WEATHER FRONT FROM JUST EAST OF BARROW TO SMALL WAVE NEAR
AMBLER TO TALKEETNA WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED LOW
NEAR WRANGELL ISLAND AT 992 MB DRIFTING NORTHWEST. ARCTIC COLD
FRONT FROM WRANGELL ISLAND TO BERING STRAIT TO EMMONAK WILL MOVE
TO POINT LAY TO KOTZEBUE TO UNALAKLEET 10 PM THU AND TO BARTER
ISLAND TO NOME TO GAMBELL 10 AM FRI. BY 4AM SAT IT WILL LIE ALONG
THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. OCCLUSION FROM BRISTOL BAY
SOUTHEASTWARD 4PM FRI WILL MOVE TO KOZTEBUE TO KODIAK BY NOON
SAT...IT WILL THEN DRIFT NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE SUN AM ALONG THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE TO NEAR MT MCKINLEY. 973 MB LOW...EX TROPICAL
STORM DOLPHIN...NOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND 4PM SUN AND WEAKEN TO 994 MB.

MODELS...THE MODELS AGREE QUITE WELL WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE MAIN
FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. IN ADDITION...THE GFS...NAM...AND
ECMWF ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN THE WARM H850 MB TEMPS OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR SAT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SET A NEW RECORD
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AT FAIRBANKS AT LEAST.

NORTH SLOPE...SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AREAS PICKING UP THIS
EVENING AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND FRI...EXPECT IT TO BE RAIN AND SNOW FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME.

WESTERN ALASKA...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME AS SNOW...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND LINGER
INTO FRI AM OVER THE UPPER KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS. BRISK
SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND MOVING OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT...DIMINISHING BY
MORNING. SOME COOLING AS WELL AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY BE SNOW
FROM NOME NORTH. WINDS TURNING EASTERLY FRI AND INCREASING FRI
NIGHT AND SAT WITH NEXT WEATHER FRONT. SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN
MOVING NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE SAT THROUGH SUN.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SAT...H850 TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 14C.
NO PRECIP EITHER...THOUGH ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO
CANADA SHOWERS FROM THE WESTERN ALASKA WEATHER FRONT MAY WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY.

 &&

.FIRE WEATHER...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND A STRONG THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR...VERY DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ONGOING RED FLAG
WARNINGS FOR LOW RH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ARE ON TRACK FOR ZONES
220...222 AND 224 AS ARE THE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 223...225 AND
226. GRADIENT FLATTENS OUT SOME FRIDAY WITH WIND CRITERIA EXPECTED
TO BE MADE ONLY IN AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN SATURDAY. RED FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL
THESE ZONES SATURDAY. RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT IN WINDY ZONES WAS
VERY POOR LAST NIGHT WITH SEVERAL SITES ONLY RECOVERING TO AROUND
25 PERCENT. RH RECOVERY IN THESE ZONES SHOULD BE BETTER TONIGHT AS
WINDS DIMINISH LATE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
FORTYMILE COUNTRY SATURDAY EVENING AND ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM CHICKEN TO FORT YUKON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ADVISORIES...WARNINGS...AND WATCHES REMAIN IN PLACE
AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS OVERALL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE. ADDED ADVISORY FOR COLVILLE RIVER AND KUPARUK RIVER NEAR
THEIR MOUTHS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ220...AKZ203.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ203...AKZ208.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ203-AKZ220.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

$$
FIRE WEATHER...CCC
JL MAY 15



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