Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 200053
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
353 PM AKST Mon Feb 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
An active weather pattern is expected to continue for much of
northern Alaska for the next few days. The immediate concern is a
strong weather front that will bring very strong winds (in some
cases gusts up to 90 mph) to St. Lawrence Island, the Bering
Strait coast tonight and to portions of the Chukchi Sea coast
early Tuesday. This front will also bring precipitation as it
moves from west to east across the forecast area tonight into
tomorrow. Another round of precipitation will move across northern
Alaska Wednesday night into Thursday. The models are in very good
agreement out through the end of the workweek.

West Coast and Western Interior: A strong low is currently moving
to the north up the east coast of Russia. A front associated with
this low will continue to push through the west coast this evening
and will push through the western Interior tonight. Cold air
wrapping around the low will bring very strong winds to areas
immediately southeast of the low tonight into early tomorrow.
This will cause wind gusts up to 90 mph from the southwest tonight
on St. Lawrence Island and along the coast of the Bering Strait
with gusts up to 90 mph expected from Kivalina north to Point Hope
early tomorrow moving. For areas south the the Bering Strait
freezing rain may mix with snow at times. The heaviest snowfall
with this system will be in the upslope region just south of the
Brooks Range in zones 208 and 217. The strong southwesterly winds
may push some sea ice onto beaches along southwest facing coasts
and may cause some minor coastal flooding. On St Lawrence Island
(especially Gambell), there is better potential for water to be
pushed ashore due to lower sea ice concentrations south of the
island. A Coastal Flood Warning is out for zone 213 for tonight
and Tuesday with coastal flood advisories out for much of the
remaining coastline along the west coast. Winds will gradually
decrease tomorrow and tomorrow night. The next round of
precipitation will begin to push into the west coast during the
day on Wednesday and will push into the western Interior Wednesday
night. Areas south of the Bering Strait may see freezing rain mix
with the snow at times with this round as well.

Central and Eastern Interior: A weather front will push through
the Interior tonight into early Tuesday. This will bring 1 to 2
inches of snowfall to the Interior as it moves through. This
front will also bring some gusty winds, particularly northeast of
Fairbanks along the Steese Highway. A potentially more
significant snowfall event is expected Wednesday evening into
Thursday. Current guidance also has westerly winds kicking up as
the front goes through. Some of the current guidance is suggesting
that Fairbanks could see 5 to 7 inches of snowfall from Wednesday
evening into early Friday morning. The GFS is also suggesting
wind gusts in the Fairbanks area Thursday evening in excess of 30
mph. The NAM and the ECMWF are not as strong; however they are
still showing winds in the 15 mph range.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Expect winds to increase this
evening as the low moves to the and the front moves to the east.
As the winds pick up blowing snow will increase in intensity.
Areas to the west of Point Lay may see gusts up to 90 mph at times
early Tuesday. Strong winds will taper off from west to east
Tuesday night. Snowfall amounts north of the Brooks Range through
tomorrow afternoon will generally be in the 2 to 4 inch range;
however in the Brooks Range there will be locally heavier amounts.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ213.

Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ214.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ201-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ217.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ212-
AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ220.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

FEB 18



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