Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 291314
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
514 AM AKDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
RECENT ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE OLD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE HIGH
ARCTIC...PRESENTLY CENTERED NORTHWEST OF PRINCE PATRICK ISLAND IN
THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO...IS WEAKENING AND MOVING NORTHWEST
FASTER THAT EARLIER INDICATED. CIRCULATION OVER THE CHUKCHI
AND SOUTHERN BEAUFORT SEAS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC.
THE WEAK TROUGH OFF THE ARCTIC COAST FROM ABOUT CAPE HALKETT
EAST IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THAT FEATURE...SO OUR CONCLUSION IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. WINDS OVER ZONES 203...204...
AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN ANY
EVENT.

BASICALLY...A SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE REGIME WILL PERSIST SOUTH
OF THE BROOKS RANGE. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE BOTH PRETTY
MODEST THOUGH...AND WE EXPECT NO SHOWERS WHERE SHORT WAVES
COMING UP FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA DO NOT PROVIDE SUPPORT ALOFT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDY AND RATHER DRY NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE AGAIN TODAY. NO ISSUES
OTHERWISE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DJH APR 16



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