Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 252337
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
337 PM AKDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Overall, the models are in good agreement in the short term. Will
generally go with the GFS as the primary model of choice for the
the first few periods.

Aloft, A 505 dam low will continue to move northward in the high
arctic. A shortwave trough currently along along a line from
Anaktuvuk Pass to Tanana will continue to move east with a ridge
building in behind it. This ridge will be the dominate weather
feature for eastern 2/3 of the state for most of the upcoming
workweek. A 537 dam low that is currently northeast of Adak will
move east reaching St. Paul Island by early Tuesday morning. This
low will remain in the Bering Sea through the end of the workweek,
gradually drifting to the north. The trough associated with this
low will be the dominant weather feature for the western 1/3 of
the state for much of the week. A 558 dam low over the central
Yukon Territory will gradually weaken tonight.

At the surface, a weather front associated with a low in the high
Arctic will continue to weaken as it moves north of the Arctic
Coast this evening. A 1013 mb area of high pressure will spread across
the Arctic Coast tonight where it will remain stationary until
tomorrow evening when it will start to move off to the northeast.
A 993 mb low currently 350 NM N of Adak will stay over the central
Bering Sea through Wednesday before moving off to the north and
west. A weather front associated with this low will begin to
affect St. Lawrence Island tonight and the Yukon Delta tomorrow
morning. A thermal trough will develop late Monday stretching
from Kotzebue to Eagle. By Wednesday the west side of the thermal
trough Will shift to the north, stretching from Point Lay to
Eagle.

Central and Eastern Interior: Isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening southeast of a line from Chalkyitsik to
McGrath along with scattered to isolated showers. Scattered to
isolated showers will continue overnight in the southern and
eastern Interior. On Monday isolated thunderstorm activity will
generally be limited to areas east of a line from Fort Yukon to
Delta Junction. Monday looks to be several degrees warmer than
Sunday with some areas reaching the mid to upper 70s. A
strengthening thermal trough on Tuesday across the Interior,
combined with high pressure building south of the Alaskas range
and southerly flow aloft will lead to gap winds developing in
Alaska Range Passes. Isolated thunderstorms will likely develop
along the thermal trough Tuesday and Wednesday in the northern
Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range: With high pressure building across
the north slope tonight the winds will become favorable for fog to
develop along the coast. Conditions will improve some during the
day; however, fog will return again overnight. This trend will
continue through the middle of the week. With the thermal trough
moving north of the Brooks Range on Wednesday Isolated
thunderstorms are possible well north of the Brooks Range, as far
north as the southern portion of zone 201. The upper level ridge
building in this week will result in well above normal temperatures
for many locations.

West Coast and Western Interior: With the low in the Bering Sea
the much of the West Coast and parts of the western Interior will
see unsettled, showery conditions for much of the week. Monday
will be cooler than Sunday for many coastal areas, particularly in
the Yukon Delta (coincident with the greatest chances of rain).
The western Interior will see slightly warmer temperatures on
Monday (compared to Sunday); however cooler air will work its way
into the western Interior for Tuesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimum relative humidity values on Monday will drop below 25%
across portions of the Interior on Monday with temperatures in
the driest areas in the upper 70s; however, sustained winds in
these areas are not expected to be above 15 mph. On Tuesday
southerly gap winds are expected to develop in the passes of the
Alaska Range; however, current thinking is that relative humidity
value near Alaska Range Passes on Tuesday will remain above 25
percent.

Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening southeast of a
line from Chalkyitsik to McGrath. On Monday isolated thunderstorm
activity will generally be limited to areas east of a line from
Fort Yukon to Delta Junction. On Tuesday and Wednesday Isolated
thunderstorms will develop along the thermal trough in the
northern Interior.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Some heavier showers over the past 48 hours have resulted in high
water along some of the small creeks and streams that drain the
eastern Alaska Range, with some creeks going over their banks.
The water has receded since the heavy rainfall ended late
yesterday morning. Some additional rain showers this evening and
Monday will help to keep these small streams and creeks high for
the the next 48 hours. A dry pattern over the Eastern Alaska range
starting on Tuesday will result streams in the area to drop to
normal seasonal levels.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.
&&

$$

JUN 17



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