Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 271254
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A DEEP 490 DM LOW AT 500 MB NEAR INUVIK WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST
TODAY. A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA WILL
BUILD THROUGH WED. STRONGER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE BERING SEA
THROUGH WED WILL BUILD EAST OVER WESTERN ALASKA THU AND OVER THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS THAT
GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WED FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA AND BRINGS WARMER AIR ALOFT.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM INUVIK TO BETTLES WILL MOVE TO
EAGLE EAST TODAY. THIS IS CAUSING NORTH WINDS THROUGH BROOKS RANGE
PASSES TODAY.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE NOW ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST WILL FROM BARROW
EAST WILL MOVE TO ANAKTUVUK TO INUVIK BY 3PM TUE AND THEN MOVE EAST.
THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MENTIONED BELOW.

A 3RD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM RUSSIA INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA
WED AND TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THU. EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN
FLURRIES WITH THIS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -12C OVER THE SW INTERIOR TO -30C
OVER NE ALASKA. LITTLE CHANGE TODAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE 2-3C
WED AND ANOTHER 1-2C THU.

SURFACE...
A SURFACE TROUGH NOW ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST FROM BARROW EAST WILL
MOVE TO ANAKTUVUK TO INUVIK BY 3PM TUE AND THEN MOVE EAST. LOW
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL DIMINISH
NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH WITH BLOWING
SNOW ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC. WINDS AND
FLURRIES WILL DECREASE NORTH OF THE TROUGH.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA TO THE CHUKCHI
SEA WILL BUILD NORTH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THU. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY COLD AND DRY UNDER THE
HIGH. IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 30 TO 50
BELOW THROUGH WED THEN SLOWLY WARMING.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT IN THE SE BERING SEA AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA IS
CAUSING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ZONES 214 AND 215 THAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS ALSO CAUSING NE WINDS OF
15-25 MPH ZONES 211-215.

A STRONG FRONT IN EASTERN RUSSIA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CHUKCHI SEA THU PM. THIS WILL CAUSE STRONG SOUTH SOUTH WINDS
ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA THU PM.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING NORTH TO THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST BY 3PM
WED WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WED NIGHT AND THU.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SIMILAR THROUGH 3PM TUE. AFTER THAT THE
GFS BRINGS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI
SEA THAN THE NAM FOR WED AND THU. THE GFS ALSO HAS A COINCIDENT
SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS STRONGER THAN THE NAM SOLUTION AND WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WED AND THU. WE FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE
THERE IS NOW A STRONG FEATURE IN THE WESTERN SEA OF OKHOTSK THAT
IS MOVING NORTH AND FEEDING ENERGY INTO THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ213-AKZ215-AKZ218.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ206.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240.
&&

$$

JB JAN 15



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