Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 231747
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1247 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF THESE STORMS WILL MAKE
IT ACROSS THE STATE LINE. IF THEY DO THEN THEY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
IMPACT THE DHT TERMINAL BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z.

THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE FOR DHT TOWARDS 7Z TOMORROW MORNING
WHERE A FEW MODELS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS SIMILAR TO
TODAY. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO PREVAILING
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL HAVE A SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WHICH COULD PUT A HAMPER ON THE CHANCE FOR LOW
CLOUDS. SHOULD THE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP CEILINGS COULD DROP AS LOW AS
IFR.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW IS STILL SPINNING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
IN RESPONSE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE A
BIT FURTHER EAST TODAY. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT DUE TO THIS.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE
AIDED BY CAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG, 35 KTS OF SHEAR ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA, AND WEAK SYNOPTIC ASCENT BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THAT
BEING SAID THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW AND WOULD BE MOST
CONCERNED WITH QUICK HEAVY RAINFALL IF STORMS DO FORM. CHANCES
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR EAST/NORTHEAST CWA AS STORMS FORMING
IN KANSAS MIGHT BE ABLE TO REACH BACK INTO THE PANHANDLES WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

A LITTLE BETTER SCENARIO FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SETS UP ON
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE TROUGH STILL WANTS TO STICK AROUND AND COULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CAPE OF AT
OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES FAVOR PULSE TYPE STORMS IF THEY AREA ABLE TO
FORM. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE.

THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A RETROGRADING
WEAK UPPER LOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT
IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST TO TAKE ITS ENERGY.
AT THIS TIME HAVE RETAINED LOW END POPS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH WHAT TO DO WITH LOW/TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ON THE
WEST COAST. DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IT COULD
BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE PANHANDLES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. WILL TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH AT THIS
TIME IN HOPES MODELS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH EACH OTHER.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...THEY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT
DAY-TO-DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MOULTON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/10





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