Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 181123
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
523 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR forecast continues next 24 hours.  Generally clear sky with
no visibility restrictions expected.  Surface trof over eastern
New Mexico will deepen slightly today, maintaining mainly light
southwest surface winds.  A few gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range
can be expected this afternoon.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 410 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A closed low currently resides over northwestern
Mexico/southwestern AZ. This has placed us in southwest
downsloping flow which will allow us to bring our temps up into
the 60s today. As the low slowly migrates eastward, by Tuesday it
will be south of the Panhandles and swing us to northwest flow by
Wednesday and bring a cold front through the area. Meanwhile, a
second closed low starts pushing southward into the Pacific
Northwest. As it does so and the first low opens up into a wave as
it pushes eastward, zonal flow aloft will take over. By Thursday,
this new system continues digging southward into Utah and pushes
the Panhandles into southwest flow again and bringing back the
60s. However, the above normal temps are short lived as the low
pressure system also pushes a cold front our way Thursday night
which may bring some light snow to the far western OK Panhandle
ahead of the front. Models at this point become fairly divergent
in solutions for the upcoming holiday weekend. The GFS Ensemble
and operational GFS really open the low up into a wave and push
forward quickly with the latter slightly slower than the former.
The ECMWF and Canadian; however, maintain the closed low and are
much slower to move the system across the Plains. Depending on
which solution is correct will determine what is going to happen.
An open wave will simply bring some colder temps but little
precip. The bowling ball low across the area will bring chances
for snow with the bitter cold. What we do know is the models do
agree on it becoming quite a bit colder than the above normal
temps we`ve had of recent. Snow or no snow will have to wait to be
seen, but for now have maintained a slight chance from Saturday
through Sunday and kept amounts around an inch or less. Models
indicate a third low pressure system will be on its way by the
end of the weekend which could really reinforce the biting cold
air with wind chill values in the single digits to below zero.
Snow or no snow, winter is coming in like a lion.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                63  34  59  28  65 /   0   0   0   5   0
Beaver OK                  62  31  60  23  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              61  29  56  27  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  64  36  61  30  66 /   0   0   0   5   0
Boys Ranch TX              64  30  59  25  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  64  32  61  26  66 /   0   0   0   5   0
Clarendon TX               62  36  63  31  67 /   0   0   5   5   0
Dalhart TX                 62  29  57  25  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  62  31  58  27  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                63  31  60  25  66 /   0   0   0   5   0
Lipscomb TX                64  35  62  27  65 /   0   0   0   5   0
Pampa TX                   64  36  61  29  65 /   0   0   0   5   0
Shamrock TX                62  37  64  31  65 /   0   0   0   5   0
Wellington TX              62  37  63  32  66 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

03/16



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