Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 282254
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
554 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions are expected through 00Z Friday at all three TAF
sites. South and southwest winds 10 to 20 knots and 15 to 25 knots
with gusts near 30 knots will diminish to around 5 to 15 knots
after 10Z Thursday. Winds at the Guymon TAF site are expected to
switch to the northwest and north after 17Z to 19Z Thursday 5 to
15 knots.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 315 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Noteworthy items include the decrease in PoPs over the short-to-
midterm periods, thunderstorm chances through the extended, and warm
temperatures Thursday (especially the Palo Duro Canyon).

The pattern aloft will be zonal to northwesterly for a good portion
of this forecast package. The zonal flow with dry atmospheric
conditions (especially lower levels) will make precipitation chances
limited through at least Thursday night. Our first/best chance for
precipitation appears to be Friday night as of now. Decent
instability returns to the area on Friday along with the passage of
a cold front that morning. Overall, chances still look minimal
Friday/Friday night. In fact, through the extended there is a lot of
discrepancies between the models with regards to consistency for
precipitation (coverage/timing) across the Panhandles, so overall
confidence is low for precipitation chances in this forecast
package. Confidence is even lower for severe weather chances.
Looking at the near-term, strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
are going to be possible Friday/Friday night. Beyond this time
period, its too hard to say with any confidence for severe weather
chances. Percentage-wise, Saturday night is forecast to have the
best chance for precipitation at this time.

On Thursday, a Heat Advisory may be needed for at least the Palo
Duro Canyon area. Models which have been verifying well lately are
suggestion temperatures at or around 105 in several places.
Currently I have 108 for the canyon. Beyond Thursday, both Friday
and Saturday will be our "coolest" days in the 80s/90s, but
thereafter temperatures will easily be in the 90s across the
Panhandles.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

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