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000
FXUS63 KBIS 241953
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
253 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Deep cut off upper level low was centered around southeastern
Montana at 18Z with the associated surface low over southwestern ND.
Dry slot of system was supporting mostly dry conditions across
southcentral ND Saturday afternoon with low level southerly flow in
the warm sector helping increase instability. Dew points in this
area were mainly in the mid/upper 60s and SB CAPE around 1500 J/Kg.
High res models show convection developing after 20Z, with the HRRR
showing the stronger cells just outside our area. Any severe threat
should be relatively short lived and over by 00Z Sun. Also expect
showers and stratiform precip to spread from west to east
overnight as upper low progresses across the state, reaching
southern Manitoba as an open trough by 18Z Sun.

Expect strong winds to develop behind the system as the surface
low reaches northcentral ND this evening. Wind advisory that is
ineffect tonight for the extreme southwest will be expanded to the north
and east. Will also make some adjustments to the starting time as
winds will be a little slower to strengthen than originally
thought. GFS depicts strongest BL winds around 40 kts over this
area. 0.5 km AGL winds also max at around 50 knots near
Adams/Sioux counties at 09Z.

On Sunday, precip will end from west to east and should be
completely out of the area by late afternoon. Breezy to windy
northwest winds will continue through the day as the low pushes away.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

A longwave upper level ridge will build over the Plains during the
week leading to mostly dry weather along with a warming trend. High
temps initially in the 60s on Monday will warm to the low 70s on
Tuesday, with similar highs through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

LIFR and IFR ceilings can be expected through the 18Z TAFs, in
association with showers and isolated thunderstorms that are
projected to move eastward across the state through the overnight
hours. Some storms in eastern areas may become strong this afternoon
and tonight.

Additionally, gusty winds will persist through the 18Z TAF period
with winds predominately become northwesterly through early Sunday
morning.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight to 6 PM CDT
/5 PM MDT/ Sunday for NDZ019-020-034-042-045-046.

Wind Advisory from 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening to 6 PM CDT
/5 PM MDT/ Sunday for NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...AC