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000
FXUS63 KBIS 011521
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
921 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

SNOW HAS ENDED AND CLOUDS ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTH. WIND
CHILLS REMAIN IN THE -25 TO -30 RANGE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL LEAVE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 17Z. MADE
SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING. DID ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH AROUND 14 UTC ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AS WE ARE
STILL GETTING LIGHT SNOW REPORTS AT HETTINGER AND LINTON. STILL
GETTING WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA SO
NO CHANGES HERE WITH AN EXPIRATION TIME OF 17 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING. ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE TENTHS OF
AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

BEHIND THE SNOW...DANGEROUS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THESE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH ARE CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO
35 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTH AND WEST. WIND CHILLS WILL BE SLOW TO
MODERATE THIS MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE AND VERY LITTLE
REBOUNDING IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER FRESH SNOWPACK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW ENTERS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST BEYOND THIS PERIOD BUT THE UNSETTLED
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST FEW
SYSTEMS. MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A RATHER WEEK SYSTEM ON MONDAY WITH
ONLY LIGHT QPF...A HALF INCH OF SNOW OR LESS...TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE BIG LAKE AND MISSOURI RIVER. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
FAR WEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE GLOBAL GEM IS QUICKER AND MORE
ROBUST WITH QPF AS A STRONGER INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 12 UTC TUESDAY...AND THEN SPREADS QPF FARTHER
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. THE EC/GEM TARGET MAINLY
THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TUESDAY MORNING...09-18 UTC. ALL THREE
MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS FROM SOUTH
FROM CANADA...WRINGING OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE. WILL STILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR TIMING/PLACEMENT AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT...BUT
IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ADVISORY EVENT WITH
MAINLY 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...TAPERING
QUICKLY AS YOU MOVE EAST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A COLD MORNING AND WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WILL LIKELY SEE A COLD START TO THURSDAY AS WELL OVER
THE EAST WHILE THE WEST ALREADY BEGINS TO WARM. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED BUT NOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS LIFTED FARTHER NORTH. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
ACTIVE FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LYING EITHER IN
SOUTHERN CANADA...OR NORTHERN INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS/GEM
ARE FARTHER NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHERN
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR NOW THE MODEL BLEND IS YIELDING
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AN EC
SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN ALL SNOW WHILE THE GFS/GEM COULD
BRING RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION BAND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BUT WE WILL STILL SEE A
RATHER SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLDER NORTHEAST AND MILD
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED AT KDIK AND KBIS...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY AT KISN...KDIK AND
KMOT THIS AFTERNOON AND KBIS AND KJMS THIS EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ003>005-
011>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ