Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 222353
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
653 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

This Wednesday evening a warm frontal boundary had progressed
through central North Dakota resulting in decreasing clouds
across the northwest. Temperatures had warmed into the middle 50s
late this afternoon over much of west central and southwest North
Dakota. Meanwhile stratus cloud cover and cool temperatures in
the lower 30s remained in place across the James River valley.
Mainly scattered to broken high clouds covered the central and
west. Gusty southerly winds should extend into the evening hours
across the James River valley otherwise the winds will diminish
west and central. Updated the sky cover to account for less cloud
cover northwest otherwise forecast trending ok.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Precipitation chances late tonight through Thursday highlight the
short term forecast.

The 12 UTC global suites and the 19 UTC RAP are in agreement on a
shortwave ejecting out of the southwest CONUS deep trough to
propagate into the Northern Plains late tonight through Thursday.
Overall forcing is aided by jet coupling between a jet streak
across northeast Montana into southern Canada, and the jet across
Colorado and New Mexico in to the southern portions of the
Northern Plains. Did significantly reduce the mention of freezing
rain for Thursday morning from the previous forecast as the 12 UTC
NAM/GFS bufr soundings depict rather dry air in the 800-700mb
layer Thursday morning that will limit significantly how much
liquid precipitation may be able to reach the ground in a narrow
temporal window with favorable surface temperatures for freezing
rain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Above normal temperatures highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global models are in agreement on split flow across the
Northern Plains Friday and Saturday transitioning to quasi-zonal
Sunday into Monday before an upper level ridge potentially builds
across the region by Tuesday. This overall favors above normal
temperatures with highs in the 40s and 50s and sporadic, weak
precipitation events.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

At 6 PM CDT a warm front extended across central North Dakota.
Mainly scattered to broken high clouds were found from KISN-KDIK-
KBIS-KMOT with ceilings around 5 thousand agl at KJMS. For tonight
VFR is expected. On Thursday low pressure will spread increasing
rain chances across southern North Dakota. A brief period of
freezing rain is possible after sunrise along and north of KBIS-
KJMS route. At this time not enough confidence to add FZRA to the
KBIS-KJMS TAFS. MVFR possible at KJMS after 20z.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

In response to increased releases from Alameda Reservoir, Lake
Darling will increase its releases to 1000 CFS by Thursday, with
the potential for further increases next week. This will cause the
Souris River downstream of Lake Darling near Foxholm to rise but
remain just below flood stage. As this pulse of water travels
further downstream where greater ice cover remains on the Souris
River, ice break up will have to be closely monitored.
Furthermore, snowmelt will be on the increase with a sustained
period of above normal temperatures late this week and through
next week. While soil moisture was high across the Souris Basin
going into the winter, early snow insulated the ground, preventing
much frost from forming. Thus, some uncertainty remains as to how
much melt from the snowpack will infiltrate into the ground
versus runoff and reach the river, streams and coulees.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
AVIATION...WAA


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