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000
FXUS63 KBIS 120824
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
324 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
CONCERN IS HYDROLOGY RELATED. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LATEST SURFACE MAP ALONG WITH THE FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP CLEARLY
DEFINES A FRONTAL/STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AN
AREA OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AS A WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE LEADING TO VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER LAYERS WHICH RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS PORTRAY A COUPLE HOURS OF
HIGHER 850MB-700MB MOISTURE WHICH MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S IN EAST
CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 50S WEST. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS BETWEEN 25F AND 32F.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
KEEPING NORTHERN PLAINS IN MAINLY NORTHWESTERN FLOW. THE MAIN
RESULT FOR US IS TEMPS CONTINUING TO RUN NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEEKEND WHEN A CLIPPER TRACKING NORTHEAST OF
ND WILL PULL SOME COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SATURDAY
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS FAR NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 30S
SOUTHWEST. RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
RAPIDLY MODERATING TO 50S WEST AND 30S FAR EAST. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH ANY AMOUNTS WOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL BRING COOLER
AIR TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS KJMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 17Z WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A THREAT AT KJMS UNTIL 09Z WEDNESDAY
BEFORE ENDING. THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT KMOT AND KBIS WILL REMAIN JUST FAR ENOUGH
WEST OF THE MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST IF
THIS CHANGES. KDIK/KISN WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
ALL TERMINALS IN VFR STATUS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

MULTIPLE FLOOD HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MISSOURI
BASIN. WET...DEEPLY FROZEN SOILS HAVE LEAD TO VERY HIGH RUNOFF
RATES OF THE MINIMAL SNOWPACK INTO THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
RESULTING IN ICE BREAK UP AND JAMS.

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE FOR...CEDAR
CREEK NEAR RALEIGH AFFECTING GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES...AND THE
CANNONBALL RIVER AT BREIEN AFFECTING MORTON AND SIOUX COUNTIES

A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...NORTHERN GOLDEN VALLEY...
AND THE LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER AT MEDORA.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HEART RIVER NEAR MANDAN
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AND THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR WILLISTON
UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS FLOWS INCREASE AND ICE FROM UPSTREAM
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...THE RISK OF ICE JAMS NEAR MANDAN
WILL INCREASE. THE MISSOURI NEAR WILLISTON AT THIS TIME IS FORECAST
TO RISE TO NEAR 21.5 FEET WEDNESDAY...SHY OF THE 22 FT FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS BROKEN
ICE IN THE SIDNEY AND FAIRVIEW STRETCHES OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER
ARE TRANSPORTED INTO THE WILLISTON AREA. WIDESPREAD RUNOFF...RIVER
AND STREAM RISES AND ICE JAM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOURIS AND JAMES BASINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MILDER
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...AYD/JNS/KS