Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 290320

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
920 PM MDT WED SEP 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...Dry and mild conditions tonight after an
unseasonably warm day. Evening satellite imagery and radar data
showing monsoon moisture with accompanying showers/storms is
advancing into e-central NV and northern UT. The mid-level cloud
cover will advance northward overnight, reaching the ID/NV border
and the western Magic Valley after midnight. However, any shower
and storm activity will diminish or remain south of the area
through Thursday morning. The forecast for tonight handles this
well so no update.


.AVIATION...VFR. Mostly clear skies. Surface winds: Mainly east to
south 5-15 kts. Winds aloft near 10 KFT MSL: South 10-15 kts.


SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday...As the upper ridge weakens
and shifts to our east, southwest flow aloft will develop over the
area. Moisture will continue to creep northward out of Nevada and
Utah within the southwest flow, leading to a slight chance of
showers and aft-eve thunderstorms in central and south-central
Idaho (basically east of McCall and Mountain Home) Thursday and
Friday. The remainder of southwest Idaho and southeast Oregon will
reside within a dry and stable flow through Friday. Temperatures
will be slightly lower but still well above normal on Thursday,
then cool 5-10 degrees on Friday. South-southwest winds aloft
will mix down each afternoon-evening, especially in southeast
Oregon and the higher terrain of southwest Idaho Friday afternoon
with gusts of 25-35 mph.

LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday...The cooling trend
will continue on Saturday as a cold front moves through the
region. Shower chances will be limited to the higher terrain of
Baker County, and most of SW Idaho, along with a slight chance of
afternoon thunderstorms. An upper low off the Oregon coast will
slide inland and track southeastward, then eastward through
Nevada on Monday. The track of the low is uncertain although
recent model solutions are in better agreement. Best chance for
showers would be near the Nevada border although with the
uncertainty decided to keep slight chance to chance showers across
all of SE Oregon and SW Idaho at this time. Temperatures will be
much cooler with highs only in the 50s to low 60s, with snow
levels down to 6000 feet. Another cold front will lead to brisk
northwest winds. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer Tuesday
and Wednesday, but still average below normal. Shower chances
will shift northward as weak upper ridging develops near the west





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