Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 011526
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
926 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
MOVING NEWD THROUGH OUR CWA THIS MORNING.  SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT
SHOULD WEAKEN CONVECTION IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
SO WE DON/T EXPECT AS MUCH THERE AS THE LAST THREE DAYS.  ALSO...
WINDS ALOFT ARE A LITTLE STRONGER SWLY SO STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL
BE LESS LIKELY TO DRIFT BACK INTO THE SNAKE BASIN.  CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS TOO WET IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS BUT IN VIEW OF THE
HEAVY RAINS THAT FELL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WE DON/T DARE LOWER
THE QPF FORECAST THERE.  INTERESTING POSSIBILITIES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MOIST UPPER LOW COMES NNE FROM BAJA CALIF INTO OUR AREA.
MORE ON THAT IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME WILL MOVE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 KTS OR MORE. EXPECT LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION IN HEAVY RAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AWAY FROM STORMS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AWAY FROM
STORMS. WINDS ALOFT TO 10K FEET WILL BE VARIABLE LESS THAN 8 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS SLOWLY
MOVED ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF HARNEY COUNTY OVERNIGHT WHILE ENI
LIGHTNING DATA DETECTED IN-CLOUD ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY OVER THE
OWYHEE MOUNTAINS AT 315 AM. THESE APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL LIFT NE TODAY. STORMS WILL
LIKELY FORM OVER CENTRAL IDAHO TOWARDS NOON AS WELL AS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER SE OREGON. STORMS WILL AGAIN BE SLOW MOVERS
WITH LOCALLY AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOUR OR TWO WITH STRONGEST OR
LONGER-LIVED CELLS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS. BOISE MOUNTAINS LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS AGAIN TODAY FOR THE HIGHEST POPS AND NUMEROUS VERY WET
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE LEFT IN ENHANCED WORDING ON STORMS THE NEXT
TWO DAYS AS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SOME ON
SATURDAY BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER RESULTS FROM THAT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AFTER CONTINUING BUT
WEAKENING RIDGING SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...MODELS NOW AGREE ON
A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ACCORDINGLY... ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY. THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE THAT MODEL TIMING WILL CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...AND DO NOT WANT TO OVER-ADJUST AT THIS TIME.
MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION
BY THU...WITH OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE UNDER A WEAK RIDGE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY A SLIGHTLY-ABOVE-CLIMO POP FOR THE AREA.
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPS THAT WILL LAST ONLY THAT DAY. THE EC IS MUCH COOLER WITH THE
TROUGH AND WOULD STRETCH THE COOLING INTO THU...BUT WE ARE NOT
BUYING THAT SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. IT IS VASTLY DIFFERENT FROM ITS
PREVIOUS RUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....SP


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