Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 252034

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
234 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...Axis of a weak upper
level trough continues to sink south over the forecast area. Some
cumulus developing over the higher terrain of the West Central
and Boise Mountains this afternoon, but no precipitation has been
reported. Have decreased pops along the eastern border of the
forecast area, so there will be no mention of precipitation for
tonight. Friday will see a dry northerly flow over the region as
the upper level trough continues to sink to the south. Saturday
flow aloft will shift to the northwest as another upper level
trough drops south over British Columbia. Conditions will remain
dry through the short term with temperatures warming to near
normal by Saturday.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday...Dry and warm westerly
flow aloft on Sunday will shift into the southwest on Monday, with
little change through Tuesday. Uncertainty increases starting
Tuesday night as a deepening upper level trough off the northwest
coast ejects a shortwave across northern California and the
intermountain area. The main problems are timing and chances of
measurable precipitation. Latest model solutions bring the
disturbance across our area as early as Tuesday night or as late as
Wednesday evening. Model precipitation forecasts also differ
considerably, but the system is expected to weaken as it moves
inland, and any monsoon moisture should track over eastern Idaho and
Wyoming, similar to the ECMWF. For now our forecast confines
mentionable precipitation to the central Idaho mountains.
Temperatures will be around 5 degrees above normal.


.AVIATION...VFR with some MVFR and local IFR visibilities from
smoke, mainly over the Boise Mountains and between KBNO and KBKE.
Surface winds variable 10 kts or less. Winds aloft at 10K ft msl
northwest 8-12 kts.





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