Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 011522
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
922 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE TODAY.  MONSOON MOISTURE IN SE CALIF
WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA THEN NEWD TO OUR SRN CWA
BORDER BUT STOP THERE.  SAME THING THURSDAY.  OUR NRN ZONES WILL BE
UNDER A DRIER WNWLY FLOW ALOFT SO NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THERE.
LOCALLY... BOISE HAS BEEN 100F OR HOTTER FIVE STRAIGHT DAYS. WE
MIGHT STAY UNDER 100F TODAY BUT JUST BARELY.  IF IT GETS TO 100
TODAY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL TOO AND WE MAY SET A RECORD FOR THE
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 100F.  THE CURRENT RECORD IS NINE DAYS. NO
UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THE NEVADA
BORDER.  SURFACE WINDS 12 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS E-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW IDAHO TODAY WHILE MONSOON MOISTURE
CIRCULATING AROUND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW U.S. WILL PUSH INTO
FAR SE OREGON. ADDED MINIMAL POPS TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN THE
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD AGAIN APPROACH THE ID/NV BORDER BUT WITH THE
DRIER AIR OVER S-CENTRAL IDAHO DON/T EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GET NORTH
OF THE BORDER. THE THREAT OF OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL EXIST
NEAR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FOR THURSDAY THE HIGH CENTER
TRACKS WESTWARD THROUGH NV. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO S-CENTRAL OREGON AND NRN CA FURTHER DECREASING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE OREGON AND THE ID/NV
BORDER REGION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWEST
ELEVATIONS TOPPING 100F AND MTN VALLEYS NEAR 90F BOTH DAYS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING THE AREA
IN A DRY PATTERN. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE
HIGH DRIFTING TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...WHICH IS A BETTER
PATTERN FOR MONSOON MOISTURE TO REACH OUR AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10-
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....EP


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