Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 261546

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
946 AM MDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...skies are clear this morning. We still expect
cumulus to develop into showers and thunderstorms over the higher
terrain of southwest Idaho from late morning through this evening,
but they will not be strong. No update is anticipated this


.AVIATION...VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, mostly in
higher terrain. Mid to upper level ceilings through the day.
Surface winds west to northwest 10-20kts. Gusts in and around
shower activity 15-25kts. Winds aloft up to 10K feet MSL,
northwest 15-20kts.


SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...Elongated trough still over
the region will continue its journey eastward today. Will see a
drying trend as the trough departs, with isolated to scattered
showers this afternoon over the high terrain of Southwest Idaho
(Southeast Oregon will be dry). Diurnal heating will encourage
afternoon instability, therefore, areas with showers will also see
isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will warm to about normal.
Upper level flow will turn northwest late Thursday, ahead of an
incoming upper level trough which will sweep through the region
Thursday night and Friday. Associated cold front will be mainly
dry, so main impact will be limited to a 5-10 degree temperature
drop and increased winds on its backside region-wide. Front
expected to pass through Southeast Oregon Thursday night, reach
the Idaho border before dawn Friday, and exit Southwest Idaho by
late afternoon. Chance showers and a slight chance of afternoon
thunderstorms will be limited to the West Central and Boise
Mountains. Wind gusts up to 30 mph will be confined to the Upper
Treasure and Magic Valleys, but will diminish after sunset Friday.

LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday...Upper trough will lift
to the northeast into Canada Friday night through Saturday,
resulting in dry weather across Southeast Oregon and Southwest
Idaho. Another trough will move through the region on Sunday for a
return to afternoon-evening convection, with a chance of showers and
a slight chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain. The trough
will be mainly to our east on Monday. There is still a slight chance
of showers over the central Idaho mountains near the exiting trough
while the remainder of the area is dry. An upper ridge near the west
coast on Monday will slide into our area for dry conditions Tuesday
and Wednesday. Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly below
normal, warming to near normal early next week and above normal by





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