Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 251541

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
941 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...A moist and marginally unstable southwest flow was
providing the region with showers this morning. The showers have
been widespread across the Treasure Valley. Latest models show a
decreasing trend in shower coverage this afternoon, becoming
scattered in the valleys and numerous in the Central Idaho
mountains. Will update for lower pops this afternoon. Unlike
yesterday, there is not enough instability for thunderstorms this


.AVIATION...Generally VFR. Widespread rain in central Idaho
mountains with scattered showers elsewhere. Areas of mountain
obscuration. Snow levels above 9KFT MSL. Surface winds: generally
SW 10-20kt except variable 10kt in Baker, Magic and Treasure
Valleys. Winds aloft at 10KFT MSL: SW 25-35kt.


SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...Large upper level low
pressure system off the west coast will continue the threat for
precipitation across the region today. Precipitation will
increase in coverage later this morning as the strong upper level
jet move over the forecast area. Expect precipitation across most
of the forecast area through at least early evening. Precipitation
totals favor the Central Mountains of Idaho where up to a half
inch of rain is forecast through this evening. Snow levels remain
between 8000-9000 feet. The Western Snake River Plain will see
around a tenth of inch of rain today. Precipitation shifts
northward tonight and exiting the forecast area Wednesday morning
as the upper level ridge begins to rebuild over the Intermountain
West. Warm air aloft should stabilize the airmass for drier
conditions on Wednesday. Southerly winds and mostly clear skies
will help push temperatures into the low 70s on Wednesday (about
10-15 degrees above normal).

LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Tuesday... A combination of
southwest flow aloft on the west flank of an upper-level ridge, and
an upper-level trough off the west coast, will provide mild and
unsettled weather through Saturday. The best chance of precipitation
will be Friday, when an upper-level trough from off the California
coast crosses our CWA. Models are advertising a pattern change to
progressive westerly flow starting Monday, following the inland
movement of the west-coast trough Sunday night. Due to uncertainty
of timing features in the westerly flow, we are keeping
precipitation chances close to climatology Monday through Tuesday.
Temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees above normal through the
weekend, followed by a cooling trend starting Monday.





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