Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 210915
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
315 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...MAJOR WX CHANGES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TODAY AND PRE-FRONTAL SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL MAKE TODAY 10-
15F WARMER THAN SUNDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES.  STRONG COLD FRONT
SUPPORTED BY DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL PASS THROUGH
OREGON ZONES OVERNIGHT AND IDAHO ZONES TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS...HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS.  FROPA WILL BE AT AN
UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IF ANY OCCUR THEY
WILL BE IN ERN ZONES IN IDAHO TUESDAY...AS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA
WILL BE TOO COOL AND STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  FROPA WILL BE MARKED
BY A WIND SHIFT TO WEST OR NORTHWEST WITH INITIAL SPEEDS OF 25-35
MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO 45 MPH...THEN SUSTAINED WEST OR NORTHWEST 20-
30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH MOST OF THE REST OF TUESDAY...NOT STRONG
ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY.  SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER THROUGH TUESDAY
...TO 4000 FEET MSL IN BAKER COUNTY SLOPING TO 5500 FEET IN TWIN
FALLS COUNTY BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  2-4 INCHES NEW SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED IN IDAHO MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN TUESDAY...1-3
INCHES IN OTHER MOUNTAINS.  HEAVIEST QPF ALSO TARGETS THE BOISE
MOUNTAINS AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO .50 INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED.  THE SNAKE BASIN SHOULD GET .10-
.20 INCH.  HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON SHOULD GET ABOUT
,10 INCH WHILE BAKER COUNTY GETS .15 TO .30 INCH. RIVERS WILL
RESPOND BUT WITH SNOW FALLING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS RIVER FLOODING
IS NOT A THREAT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
AFTER TUESDAY/S SYSTEM...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY. A BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGE PUSHES
NORTHWARD FROM NEVADA. THIS MAINLY HELPS DRY OUT AREAS ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER REGION AS THE NORTH IS STILL INFLUENCED BY THE EXITING
TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL US. THE NEXT SYSTEM RAPIDLY MOVES IN
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WET
CONDITIONS TO ALL ZONES. SNOW LEVEL PRETTY LOW WEDNESDAY NEAR THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FLOORS...THEN RISING TO NEAR 6000 FEET ON THURSDAY.

THE EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A DRYING PERIOD WITH MORE RIDGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHEREAS THE ECM KEEPS A ZONAL FLOW PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
PARENT LOW IN THE GULF...SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. BOTH MODEL
ENSEMBLES SHOW SIMILAR PATTERNS AS THEIR OPERATIONAL MODELS BUT THE
ECM EMSEMBLE SHOWS LESS SPREAD THAN THE GFS ENSEMBLE...SO THE CURRENT
FORECAST KEEPING WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
SURFACE WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KTS
WEST OF KBNO THROUGH 15Z.  WINDS INCREASING 10 TO 15 KTS ALL
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 10K FT WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10 KTS THROUGH 18Z THEN INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....CR
AVIATION.....CR


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