Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 262111

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
311 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...Upper level shortwave is
moving across the central Idaho mountains extending north into
western Montana. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly
east of the Sawtooth Mountain crest and eastern Valley County and
areas north and east through this evening. Gusty outflow winds
will be the main concern with the thunderstorms, mainly in the
central Idaho mountains, as the low levels remain dry with high
DCAPE values. Drier air aloft will move into the region for
Wednesday and Thursday with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will
remain quite warm, and lowest valleys will continue to be around
100F or 5 to 10 degrees above normal through the period.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Tuesday...The region will stay
under the influence of a west-northwest flow, Thursday night through
Friday, that will aid in keeping monsoon moisture to the south,
albeit temporarily. This will change Saturday as a trough pushes
into the region allowing monsoon moisture to creep north under a
southerly flow. Looking for a slight chance of thunderstorms across
much of the region. Saturday`s temperatures will be the hottest of
the week with temperatures 100F plus along the Snake River Plain.
Expecting winds to become breezy into Sunday as the trough deepens,
keeping monsoonal moisture at bay to the region`s east. Sunday`s
temperatures will drop to normal behind a weak cold front Saturday
night. Expecting Monday and Tuesday to be dry and breezy with
temperatures near normal.


.AVIATION...VFR under mostly clear skies. Few afternoon cumulus
over the mountains through 03Z. Isolated thunderstorms in northeast
Valley County and central Idaho mountains this afternoon. Smoke
layers near Idaho City and Lowman areas due to the Pioneer Fire.
Patchy smoke in the Snake River Valley, including the KBOI and
KMUO areas overnight. Surface winds generally west-northwest
10-20KT, decreasing by 06Z. Winds aloft through 10KFT MSL west





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