Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 010152
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
752 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 749 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Last convection is dropping south out of Park county. Updated for
this and for faster clearing. Still expecting some stratus and
areas of fog to develop late tonight on the plains, possibly
wrapping back toward Greeley and Fort Collins in the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Areas that had fog and low clouds through late this morning are
now appearing to be too stable to support convection. However,
over Washington, Lincoln and eastern Elbert Counties, temperatures
got warm enough for showers to begin developing. As expected,
storms are slow moving and capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall. A few showers have also developed over northeast Park
County in the foothills. Have backed off on the chance of showers
in the Platte River valley, where temperatures are cooler and the
airmass more stable. Showers should wind down through the evening
as the storms rain out and temperatures cool off.

Later tonight, areas of stratus are expected to re-develop,
more likely over the farther northeast areas that receive rainfall
this evening. Winds later tonight will be more southeasterly which
will keep the stratus from working back into the Denver area.

Models show no precipitation over the plains tomorrow afternoon.
Synoptically, the upper ridge axis will be centered over the
state, with more subsident forcing in place. Will keep the plains
dry through tomorrow afternoon but hang onto isolated-scattered
pops over the mountains, where the heating over the higher terrain
will overcome the subsidence. Temperatures should be a few degrees
warmer than today as the ridge moves overhead.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be diminishing over the
high terrain Thursday evening, though some high clouds will
likely remain. Expect Thursday night temperatures to be warmer
with the cloud cover, warmer temperatures advected in southwest
flow aloft and a surface trough along the lee of the Rockies.

Southwest flow aloft will increase Friday ahead of a digging
trough over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, the trough will
move out east away from the Rockies, helping to destabilize the
airmass over the plains and act as a focus for storms. Convective
activity will still begin over the high terrain, then push out
over the plains in the afternoon. Increasing PWs moving out of the
southwest will allow for storms to still produce brief heavy rain
especially over the mountains. Some stronger storms will be
possible with the increasing shear, with hail possible over the
eastern plains and gusty outflow winds more probable towards the
urban corridor.

Flow aloft will increase more on Saturday with a shortwave
rounding the Pacific Northwest trough. A surface low will be found
over southcentral Colorado which may focus storms closer to the
northern state border.

Drier air will push into the area Sunday at the same time a cold
front pushes south across the area. Will still see isolated
activity across the area, with less precipitation expected. The
main upper trough axis will be pushing closer to the area but
becoming more zonal as the trough widens. Models flush most of the
moisture northeast of the area for mainly dry conditions Monday
with some isolated activity possible Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 749 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2016

VFR in the Denver area through Thursday. Low clouds and areas of
fog are expected to remain well east and north of Denver Thursday
morning.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gimmestad
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...Gimmestad



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