Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 012011
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MON EVENING INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-WEEK
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT BELOW NORMAL LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS THEY
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE ARE MOVING TOWARD
AN AREA OF LESS INSTABILITY SO THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
THEY APPROACH THE EAST COAST.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END AS DIURNAL
HEATING DIMINISHES. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE PLEASANT WITH
DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. LOW TEMPS LIKELY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S IN NORTHWEST MASS TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.  NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO
THE REGION.  THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST LOCATIONS.  A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NW MASS WILL BE AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MON EVENING INTO TUESDAY
* PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
* THREAT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST THU WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
  SAT

OVERVIEW...

GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FEATURING CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY REGION GRADUALLY MOVING EAST
WITH BROAD TROF SETTING UP OVER GT LAKES AND NE. SW FLOW ALOFT AND
WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THREAT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD ON
HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. USED A
BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE MAY CLIP S COAST WITH SOME SHOWERS THU...THEN ANOTHER
WAVE MAY AFFECT THE REGION NEXT SAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF
THIS WAVE IS QUITE LOW.  TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GT LAKES WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING E OF THE LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE BY DAYS END. FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH PROMOTE DECENT INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAY...BUT MAIN FORCING...STRONGER SHEAR AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FRONT. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT
MOST OF MONDAY MAY END UP DRY WITH MAIN ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE
WEST. HAVE JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR FAR W NEW ENG FOR THE AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPS NEAR 17C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES IN
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...BUT GUSTY SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IT WILL BE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SNE DURING MON NIGHT. DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6.5-7 C/KM WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SFC INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPES 1000+ J/KG DURING THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SCT TSTMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH
VALUES REACHING AND EXCEEDING 40 KT SO THERE WILL BE THREAT FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR IF
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED DURING THE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE DURING TUE WITH SW FLOW ALOFT.
WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION...WILL LIKELY SEE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS
INDICATE 1000-2000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR UP TO 40 KT IN AREA OF BEST
INSTABILITY SO THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
TUE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG.

WED INTO THU...
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WED AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRIER W/NW FLOW
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEN THU WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW CLOSE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE GETS TO
SNE.  ATTM...IT APPEARS BULK OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE S WITH
SOUTH COAST HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME RAIN.  HOWEVER...ANY
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN A WET DAY FOR A GOOD PART OF
SNE SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

FRI INTO SAT...
LOOKS DRY FRI WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
TRACK OF NEXT SFC LOW FOR SAT. GFS FURTHER N AND WET FOR SAT WHILE
ECMWF IF FURTHER S. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SUB-
SEVERE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR WITH ANY LINGERING EVENING
T-STORMS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR/DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS LOGAN/S AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REFLECT IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY NEAR THE COAST...OTHERWISE
VFR WITH GUSTY SW WINDS 20-25 KT. LOW PROB OF A TSTM LATE IN THE DAY
FAR W NEW ENG.

MON NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TUE...PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE.

WED AND THU....VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR IN SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST ON
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.  HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE NIGHT
FOR THESE SEAS.  THEY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MON INTO TUE...INCREASING PREFRONTAL SW WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT LATE
MON AND MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7
FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE.

WED AND THU...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER S COASTAL WATERS THU.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ235-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



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