Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 242108
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
308 PM MDT Wed May 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Thu and Fri...

Cold front near a Forsyth to Pryor line is moving east, with gusty
NW winds in its wake of 30-40 mph across our western cwa.
Strongest pressure rises are building from the northwest, thus
surface winds are not linked up with the mid level flow which is
westerly. Frontal winds will continue to surge across our east and
southeast through the remainder of the afternoon. Stronger
pressure rises will arrive from the west this evening, with 850mb
winds on the order of 30-40 kts, so expect gusty winds to persist
tonight. Winds will veer to the NW and be strongest across our
central and east on Thursday, as slow-moving surface and upper
lows move slowly to our northeast. Have raised wind speeds across
our cwa tomorrow. Will continue to message (wx story/social media)
windy conditions over the next 24 hours, but gusts will remain
below highlight criteria, with maximums mostly from 35-45 mph.

Otherwise, there is a line of showers from northern Big Horn to
Custer Counties, with a thunderstorm at Miles City at 250 pm.
Weaker showers extend southwestward to the Beartooth/Absarokas
along convergent axis of trof into southeast ID. All of this
activity will remain non-severe, outside of any localized wind
opportunities, as it moves quickly to our east early this evening.
Temps have already fallen to the lower 70s at Billings, with 60s
at Livingston and Harlowton. Expect a much chillier evening with
the wind as we continue to cold advect from the W-NW.

Upper low over Alberta will drift east tonight, allowing for
trowal on its western flank to drop through central MT to our cwa
late tonight and Thursday. This will bring some light showers to
mainly our west and upsloping south tomorrow, with some snow over
the high country as 700mb temps fall below zero. Tomorrow will be
much cooler than today with highs in the lower-mid 60s across our
lower elevations, along with brisk winds.

Additional shortwave energy in an evolving NW flow aloft will
bring more showers with isolated thunderstorms on Friday. Winds
will be lighter on Friday, with temps remaining a little below
normal.

JKL

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

NW flow will remain over the region this weekend through the first
part of next week, with the longwave pattern containing a cool
trof over the northern plains and great lakes, and a ridge along
the Pacific coast. This puts us in a modestly active weather
pattern, with an opportunity for scattered showers/isold tstms
especially in our west and south each day, with slowly warming
temperatures that will not be far from normal. Ridge axis may
shift east by midweek, but there is some uncertainty here, as the
ECMWF keeps the ridge to our west through next Wed. Plenty of
spread exists in the GEFS temperature plumes.

Do not see a real severe risk for the remainder of May as the
trof to our east will prevent any gulf connections in our region.
A string of near to below normal temperature days will also keep
our mountain snow melt somewhat subdued, so no hydro concerns over
the next several days.

JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail tonight. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will move across SE MT early evening along with a
surface cold front, then exit the area to the east. Local MVFR
conditions and strong wind gusts can be expected near convection.
West to northwest winds will remain gusty through late tonight,
and possibly into early Thursday morning over central and western
zones. Thursday will see gusty northwest winds re-develop along
with isolated to scattered afternoon/evening convection. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/064 043/065 045/071 047/073 048/073 047/077 049/080
    11/N    12/T    22/T    12/T    11/B    11/U    12/T
LVM 043/060 035/063 038/068 040/072 040/072 039/075 041/077
    23/W    14/T    33/T    22/T    12/T    12/T    12/T
HDN 045/066 040/067 043/070 046/073 045/073 044/077 046/080
    22/W    12/T    22/T    12/T    11/B    11/U    12/T
MLS 046/064 042/068 045/070 046/072 046/072 044/074 047/077
    31/N    11/B    12/T    12/T    11/B    00/U    01/U
4BQ 045/064 040/065 042/068 044/069 044/070 042/072 045/075
    21/N    11/B    12/T    12/T    11/B    01/U    01/U
BHK 042/062 039/065 041/066 042/067 042/066 039/068 042/073
    61/N    11/B    12/T    22/T    10/U    00/U    01/U
SHR 041/061 038/061 040/066 043/067 042/068 040/072 043/076
    22/W    23/T    23/T    12/T    12/T    11/B    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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