National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KBYZ 160956
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
356 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...

Current radar imagery shows shower activity ongoing over central
and eastern areas this morning. This activity is expected to
gradually taper off this morning, allowing skies to temporarily
clear. Outside of this precipitation, the strong winds east of the
Bighorn Mountains look to continue this morning with gusts of 30
to 45 mph before tapering off this afternoon. Across the rest of
the area, 20 to 35 mph northwesterly winds will continue today.
These northwesterly winds will keep temperatures a bit cooler
today, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s forecast. By the
afternoon and evening, cloud cover will begin to increase from the
west as the next weather system approaches.

This next weather system will be associated with an upper trough
that is expect to dig south into our area today into tonight.
While this trough will not bring precipitation to the entire area,
it will bring cool, below normal temperatures back to the entire
area. This cold air is expected to move in tonight, with high
temperatures Wednesday remaining in the upper 30s to 40s. The
areas that are expected to see precipitation with the cold
temperatures are generally along and south/west of a line from
Harlowton to Billings to Lodge Grass and Sheridan, WY, with the
heaviest precipitation along the foothills and mountains (95-100%
chance to see accumulating precipitation). While uncertainty
remains in the end time of the precipitation, with hi-res models
conflicting with global models, the start time is relatively
certain. We are expecting to see precipitation move into the west
this evening, spreading over the foothills late this evening.
Snow levels are expected to drop quickly as the precipitation
moves in, so precipitation should start, or very quickly switch
over to, snow this evening along the foothills. Off the foothills,
a rain/snow mix may persist longer into the night before
switching over to snow. The heaviest snow looks to fall late
tonight into early Wednesday morning along the foothills, so
impacts to the morning commute in the foothills looks likely. Snow
accumulations on roads will be difficult with this event, so the
best accumulating snow will be on grassy surfaces. Increased snow
rates tonight could lead to slushy accumulations on roads near
the foothills though. By Wednesday, snow looks to continue along
the foothills, but this is where the previously mentioned
uncertainty remains. Therefore, this will be something to watch
for potential impacts into the Wendesday evening commute. Outside
of travel impacts, these conditions will be hazardous to young
livestock Tuesday night through Wednesday, so take precautions if
necessary.

As far as snow totals go, the foothills have a good (70-90%)
chance to see 6 or more inches of snow, and the mountains have a
good (60-85%) chance to see 12 or more inches of snow. Arends

Thursday through Monday...

Cool north to northwest flow looks to remain over the area into
Friday. Breezy northwest winds over eastern areas Thursday will
decrease into Friday. Upslope flow into the mountains and
foothills will continue to produce rain/snow showers, greatest
during the afternoon and early evening hours Thursday and Friday
(20-50% chance). Light snow accumulations are possible in the
mountains each day. Winds shift to the east into Saturday, as a
shortwave slides south and east through Wyoming, eventually
turning more southerly for Sunday. Shortwave ridging over the
region on Sunday will bring warmer temperatures and a mainly dry
forecast. A potential shortwave dropping through the region early
next week could bring a return to unsettled conditions.

High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 30s to 40s
on Thursday and Friday, with 40s and lower 50s on Saturday.
Temperatures climb into the 50s and lower 60s for Sunday and
Monday. Overnight lows mainly in the 20s are forecast most nights.
STP

&&

.AVIATION...

In general, VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon
hours today. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms could
bring local MVFR conditions at times over eastern areas into the
morning hours. The next weather system moving into the region will
bring rain and snow to the area, moving into western areas by 0z
Wednesday. Conditions will deteriorate towards MVFR and IFR
tonight. Wind gusts along the Bighorn mountain and foothills in
Wyoming could gust 35-40kts at times into this morning. Northwest
wind gusts of 20-30kts will be common for most areas today,
highest over southeast MT. Mountains will become obscured later
this afternoon and evening due to snow. STP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 036/044 029/046 025/042 025/048 030/061 038/062
    2/R 75/S    11/B    12/S    11/B    12/R    11/B
LVM 060 031/039 021/042 021/039 021/047 030/056 034/058
    5/R 87/S    22/S    22/S    11/U    12/R    11/B
HDN 065 036/047 027/047 023/044 023/051 028/063 036/064
    1/U 65/O    21/B    11/B    11/B    12/R    21/B
MLS 064 037/046 028/043 022/040 022/047 028/061 038/060
    1/N 01/N    11/N    00/B    00/B    01/U    11/B
4BQ 063 037/046 028/044 023/041 022/047 028/062 038/061
    2/R 12/O    11/N    00/B    01/B    01/U    11/B
BHK 061 033/045 024/040 019/038 019/044 023/058 032/058
    5/R 01/N    11/N    01/B    00/B    01/U    11/B
SHR 062 031/042 023/042 020/041 019/046 025/060 032/060
    1/N 88/S    42/S    22/S    22/S    11/U    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 6
      AM MDT Thursday FOR ZONES 34-141-170-172.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6
      AM MDT Thursday FOR ZONES 40-64-65.
     Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to noon
      MDT Thursday FOR ZONES 56-66.
     Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 6 PM this evening
      to 6 PM MDT Thursday FOR ZONES 67-68-171.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 6
      AM MDT Thursday FOR ZONES 138-169.
WY...Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 6 PM this evening
      to 6 PM MDT Thursday FOR ZONE 198.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 6
      AM MDT Thursday FOR ZONE 199.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings