Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 240202

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
802 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

A dry northwest flow exists over the region tonight. A band of
weak echoes popped up early this evening from near the Bull Mtns
to Colstrip, within an axis of vorticity and reasonable mid level
lapse rates, but it is doubtful whether any pcpn is reaching the
ground as sub-cloud air is quite dry. Added mention of isolated
sprinkles in this area til 03z this evening. Otherwise, we will
see some mid cloud from the northwest tonight and that`s about
all. Temps will be chilly once again, falling to the upper 30s and
40s, and cloud cover may have an effect here. Miles City record
of 44F could be reached. Livingston record of 34F could also be
challenged if skies stay clear enough, as winds will be light.
Enjoy the cool temps everyone...we start warming things up early
next week. JKL


.SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun...

A pair of upper lows over southern Canada will continue to
provide an cyclonic flow aloft across our forecast area through
the weekend. At the same time, a strong jet stream overhead will
continue to produce gusty northwest winds for areas east of
Billings especially toward Miles City and areas east and south.
These breezy conditions are expected to subside late this evening.
Skies will become mostly clear after sunset with dry conditions
prevailing through tonight. With the lighter winds and clear
skies, overnight lows again will be quite cool for this time of
year with a near record low possible for Miles City.

The jet stream will begin to slowly shift east Saturday and
Sunday as high pressure ridging begins to build over the state. A
northwest flow aloft will continue but heights will be rising
allowing for warmer temperatures to return. Conditions look to be
dry for the weekend with the exception of a slight chance for a
thunderstorm near the higher terrain on Saturday afternoon/early
evening. Sunday will see mostly sunny skies and temperatures
closer to normal for this time of year. Highs on Saturday will be
in the lower to middle 70s with upper 70s to lower 80s on Monday.

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

Models have come in line through the middle of next week, but
diverge from there. The consensus was pointing to an upper low
moving across southern Canada and flattening an upper ridge that
develops Monday. This flattening process will take place Tuesday
and Wednesday and allow a cold front to drive through the area.
Ahead of this front, it will be very warm with highs reaching the
lower 90s for many locations Monday and again possibly on Tuesday.
Increasing shortwave influx on Monday and Tuesday, along with the
cold frontal passage on Tuesday, will translate into an
increasing thunderstorm threat for both those days. Given the
rapidly drying, to existing drying state out there, this could
pose concern for fire weather. The GFS has backed off on the very
cool weather pattern advertised for Wednesday through Friday of
next week and followed more of a ECMWF solution. The forecast for
that time frame still looks cooler and more unsettled, with lower
heights and cyclonic flow, just not as cool as previous GFS runs.



NW wind gusts of 15-20 kts in southeast MT will decrease after
sunset, and winds will remain light across the region through the
night. There will be periods of mid cloud in the northwest flow
aloft, but VFR conditions will prevail tonight and Saturday. JKL



    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
BIL 048/075 050/081 055/092 061/088 057/082 055/078 054/079
    01/B    10/U    00/U    23/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
LVM 038/073 042/081 048/089 054/083 049/077 046/075 046/076
    01/U    00/U    01/U    24/T    23/T    33/T    23/T
HDN 045/076 048/083 053/094 061/091 057/084 054/080 054/081
    01/B    10/U    00/U    23/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
MLS 044/076 047/080 052/092 063/092 060/086 056/081 054/081
    00/B    00/U    00/U    23/T    32/T    23/T    33/T
4BQ 044/074 046/079 050/091 060/091 058/085 055/080 054/080
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    32/T    23/T    33/T
BHK 041/071 042/076 046/086 057/089 057/083 053/077 050/077
    00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    23/T    32/T
SHR 042/071 044/078 048/089 056/087 053/081 050/077 050/077
    01/B    00/U    00/U    22/T    23/T    34/T    33/T




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