Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 241936
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
336 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Maria will track northward off the Southeast U.S.
coast through midweek then will turn northeast and will move
away from the coast. A cold front will move through our area
from the northwest late this week, followed by high pressure
that will build into the region through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Subsidence on the western flank of Hurricane Maria is moving
over the area. The result is dry weather over land and maybe a
small probability for showers over the Gulf Stream. The high
clouds will prevail, resulting from the upper jet and the
western periphery of Maria. There are no fog concerns due low
level mixing. Temperatures are forecasted to be in the mid to
upper 60s, lower 70s at the beaches and barrier islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As Hurricane Maria passes offshore, a relatively dry/capped
environment should ensure rain-free conditions and a warming trend
through midweek. High temps in the mid/upper 80s Mon will warm at
least into the upper 80s/lower 90s Wednesday. Low temps are expected
to range from 65-70F inland to the lower/mid 70s at the coast.
Monday-Tuesday. Most mid/upper level cloud cover will be generated
by offshore Maria, especially Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Despite the presence of Maria offshore, weak NVA under high pressure
should continue to help mitigate precipitation chances initially.
Chances for showers/thunderstorms will increase later in the week
into early next weekend due to an approaching cold front. Guidance
continues to suggest that the front will cross the Appalachians
Thursday into Friday, with passage through the forecast area likely
by early Saturday. Above average temperatures will persist in
advance of the front, with cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints
likely behind the front as cool high pressure builds back into the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions. Low
probabilities for morning restrictions due to fog, mainly
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The pressure gradient between high pressure over the
Great Lakes and Hurricane Maria will be sufficiently strong
enough to support NE winds 15-20 kt across much of our waters.
The long period swell from the offshore hurricane will prevail.
Expect 5-9 ft seas near shore and 9-11 ft seas across the outer
GA waters. Small Craft Advisories are in effect.

Monday through Friday: Small Craft Advisories will continue due
to high seas pushing into the waters from offshore Hurricane
Maria. NE winds 15 to 20 knots with some gusts to 25 knots
Monday into early Tuesday will back to the N then NW and will
diminish, and swell size will gradually subside below SCA
levels, as Maria pushes N/NE of the region Tuesday/Wednesday.
More tranquil conditions will then prevail by the end of this
forecast period.

Rip Currents: Long period swell generated by offshore Hurricane
Maria will continue to impact beaches early this week. A high
risk for life-threatening rip currents will continue at least
through Monday. As Maria advances well northeast of our
coastline and the swell diminishes in size, an elevated risk
for rip currents should persist into mid-week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Powerful surf created by offshore Hurricane Maria will drive
significant wave run-up, which could cause further beach erosion
around the times of high tide early this week. A High Surf
Advisory remains in effect through Monday. Also, the potential
for shallow salt water flooding will persist around the times of
high tide early this week, particularly along the South
Carolina coast.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for GAZ117-119-
     139-141.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for GAZ117-119-139-
     141.
SC...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for SCZ048>051.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ352.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ350-374.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ354.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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