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000
FXUS65 KCYS 110603
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1103 PM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. SO WILL ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO
EXPIRE AT 6 PM. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH
THROUGH AROUND 9 PM HOWEVER. SO STILL ANTICIPATE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER
TODAY. WINDS WILL DROP OFF FURTHER LATER THIS EVENING BRINGING AN
END TO ANY BLOWING AND DRIFTING ALTOGETHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

STRONG WINDS CONTINUING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WIND-PRONE AREAS
BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO EASE OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES. RIGHT NOW EXPIRATION OF HIGH WIND WARNING
AT 6 PM LOOKS IN LINE. ARC OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH SOME SNOW
SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. THESE SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH A SECOND IMPULSE DROPPING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST IN NWLY FLOW. PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL ALSO DROP
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS COLDER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE MTNS.
THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER QUITE COLD NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE PANHANDLE BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD KEEP WINDS
CHILLS FROM GETTING DANGEROUSLY LOW.

WARMING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
WEDS AS HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COASTAL
AREAS AND THE COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST. SNOW
COVER WILL LIMIT WARMING THUS WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
SOME. CHILLY WEDS NIGHT THEN MILD THURSDAY AS THE WEST COAST UPPER
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WHILE WEAKENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

MAINLY LOOKING FOR NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THOUGH TO TIME SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGES WHICH MAKE THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY ON ANY GIVE DAY...BUT IT IS SAFE TO
SAY IT WILL BE WARMER THAN HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...ESPECIALLY INTO THE PLAINS. EXPECTING A
FEW SHORTWAVES TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AGAIN TIMING IS TOUGH GIVEN FAST NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW EVENTS FOR THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES...OTHERWISE NOT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES
EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG WINDS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. BASED ON THE GFS FRIDAY MAY BE A DAY TO WATCH...AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

LINGERING -SHSN ARE STILL OCCURRING IN THE KCDR/KSNY AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 09Z. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR
THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY AT SE WYOMING TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

NO CONCERNS SEEN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AROUND THE MTNS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
SOME HIGHER MTN SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES...MAINLY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAHN
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...LIEBL
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...RE