Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 222300
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Cooler air will filter into western Kansas over the next 24 hours
as an area of high pressure slowly crosses the Central Plains.
Based on the expected sky cover overnight, surface dew points
around daybreak, and where the surface ridge will be located
between 09z and 15z Wednesday am favoring undercutting guidance
for areas east and south of Dodge City. Lows early Wednesday
morning in the mid to upper 50s looks likely for much of western
Kansas. Lows near 50 not completely out of the question in north
central Kansas and if the clouds linger longer, like several
models indicate, near the Oklahoma border through the early
morning hours then lows in the lower 60s will be reasonable.

Wednesday will be sunny and unseasonably cool with highs mainly
in the middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

There will be a slight chance for thunderstorms Wednesday night
near the Colorado border but the precipitation chances will be on
the increase Thursday night as an upper level trough rotates
around an upper level ridge axis located across the Central
Rockies and begins to move out into the Western Highs Plains.
Surface lee trough deepening across eastern Colorado will be the
focus for convection Thursday afternoon. What storms that do
develop in eastern Colorado are expected to move across western
Kansas overnight as the upper level trough crosses the Central
Plains.

Clouds, cool temperatures, and even a chance for precipitation
can be expected Friday and Friday night given the up slope flow
and moisture forecast across western Kansas by the GFS and ECMWF
ahead of another approaching upper level trough.

A tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico late week will move
onshore and then slowly cross southeast Texas late this weekend
into early next week. Given the latest model runs this system
will stay in southeast Texas late this weekend into early next
week as an upper level ridge builds across the western United
States. There will still be a small chance for convection over the
weekend period as a surface cold front drops south across
southwest Kansas and an upper level trough crosses the Central
Plains. This next front will also bring another shot of cooler air
back to western Kansas which will result in keeping temperatures
at or below the seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

VFR expected through TAF pd. NE winds bcmg SE/S 10-20 G25 kt tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  86  60  85 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  56  84  61  84 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  60  83  63  82 /   0  10  20  30
LBL  60  85  62  84 /   0   0  10  30
HYS  54  85  60  85 /   0   0  10  20
P28  59  84  60  86 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden


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