Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 151818
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1218 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1214 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

A dry period will persist into the early part of the weekend as weak
ridging aloft continues to break down as it transitions east across
the Central Plains, quickly giving way to a weak zonal flow aloft
across the Western High Plains tonight. Meanwhile, an upper level
shortwave is projected to push ashore into the Pacific Northwest
tonight and further southeast into the Great Basin Saturday. A lee
side surface low will develop and deepen across southeast Colorado
in response bringing more of a southwest flow to western Kansas
during the day Saturday and reinforcing the drier air mass
lingering across the high plains. This will keep precip chances
out of western Kansas through Saturday night.

A westerly downslope flow will become more southwesterly tonight as
a lee side trough continues to slowly strengthen near and along the
Colorado border, in turn drawing warmer air into the area. Expect
lows only down into the 20s(F) tonight with a few lower to mid
30s(F) possible across south central Kansas and extreme southwest
Kansas. Surface low will develop and deepen across southeast
Colorado and Northeast New Mexico Saturday setting up a more
southerly flow across southwest and central Kansas. This will
support further warm air advection pushing H85 temperatures well
above 10C. Look for highs nearing the lower to mid 60s(F)
Saturday afternoon with a few mid to upper 50s(F) possible in west
central Kansas behind an advancing cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 107 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

The extended forecast will be subject to the large trough over the
western states, and the various embedded waves associated with
it. The only one seemingly of interest precipitation-wise for
our are appears Saturday might or Sunday morning as a warm
frontal/overrunning rain possibility across south central Kansas,
depicted by the NAM/WRF but much further east in the ECMWF
solutions. As a result there are precip probabilities now for the
southeast counties early Sunday. The remainder of the forecast is
dry and seasonal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

WV imagery indicates a northerly flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains. Near the surface, area of high pressure is
sinking southward across the Texas Panhandle into West Texas.
Southwest winds 10 to 20kt will persist through early Saturday
morning as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored
across eastern Colorado.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  28  59  30 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  58  26  59  27 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  60  33  60  26 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  59  27  61  27 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  58  28  58  30 /   0   0   0  10
P28  57  30  60  37 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...JJohnson



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