Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 011205
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
605 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
...Updated for aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
The deep upper low, which was centered across the Siouxland region
late Monday Night shift slowly east into the Upper Midwest region.
This will keep the overall pressure gradient across western Kansas
essentially unchanged, thus a continuation of the west wind. Wind
speeds of 10 to 15 knots will prevail through the day Tuesday. The
latest NAM12 model suggests that some wrap-around cloud cover may
reach as far south as I-70 during the afternoon hours, so some
increased cloud in Trego and Ellis County may be in order, along
with some slightly lower temperatures (37-39F for highs, instead of
41-43F). Otherwise, the forecast is fairly straightforward with
quiet sensible weather later on today and tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
The first half of the long term period (Wednesday through Friday)
will be quiet and fairly mild with an upstream longwave ridge in
place. Downstream of the longwave ridge, a very minor shortwave
disturbance will move through the pattern late in the week, but it
will essentially do nothing of change to our sensible weather. The
next weather maker will likely come in late Saturday/Saturday Night,
but this system will not likely produce much precipitation as there
will be a deficiency in deep tropospheric baroclinicity along with a
lack of Gulf of Mexico moisture given the sustained off-shore flow
ahead of the incoming storm system. The SuperBlend guidance gives 20
(Slight Chance) POPs for the Saturday Night and Sunday periods.
Given the lack of cold air available, the dominant precipitation
would appear to be rain, although out west where the elevation is
higher, a Rain or Snow precipitation type is forecast.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
Surface high pressure will build across the Rockies and high
plains through Wednesday morning. This will result in west to
northwesterly winds through the period, with the highest speeds
during daytime heating. VFR conditions will prevail with only
some scattered clouds AOA060.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 42 24 47 22 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 40 21 46 20 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 42 24 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 43 23 48 22 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 39 24 47 22 / 0 0 0 0
P28 44 26 48 24 / 0 0 0 0