Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 070755
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
155 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Updated Short Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The biggest challenge will be wind speed magnitude today. An
intense storm system in the larger scale northwest flow pattern
will dive southeast from the Northern Plains into the Midwest
region today. The 800-700mb layer height gradient will increase
quite a bit this afternoon between the the trough axis across Iowa
and an upper high over the Desert Southwest/California. 00z GFS
model shows mean 800-700mb winds increasing from 40-45 knots at
15z across west-central KS to 60-70 knots by 21z! While we will
not mix to this pressure level, we will still see plenty of
momentum within the mixed layer this afternoon supporting surface
winds around 30 knots sustained across portions of west central
KS...and in the 25-30 knot range over much of the rest of west
central and southwest Kansas. In the grids, the WRF-ARW 10-meter
winds match the GFS kinematics fairly well, so the official wind
forecast will reflect very much the WRF-ARW winds with even a bit
of a bump up from that a few knots. As far as temperatures go,
much of this colder airmass coming in behind this trough/front
passage will be downslope modified, so it will not impact
temperatures much at all.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Surface high pressure will settle into western Kansas Sunday night
and Monday. Lows will be in the 20s and highs in the 40s. A
warming trend will develop after Monday with highs rising into the
60s and even close to 70 degrees by Wednesday as surface low
pressure develops across western Kansas, along with southwest winds.
Another weak cold front will pass across western Kansas late
Wednesday, with highs falling back into the 50s by Thursday. Some
warming may occur by Friday with 50s and 60s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Strong winds will occur Sunday, particularly in the afternoon
hours as a strong upper level disturbance moves across the Midwest
region. We do not expect any lowering of ceiling or reduction in
visibility behind the front, so the VFR forecast will continue
through this TAF period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  25  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  45  24  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  49  24  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  52  27  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  43  23  35  24 /   0   0   0   0
P28  56  28  44  25 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Umscheid


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