Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 031052
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
552 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE DEEPENING TODAY OVER EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM 1 TO 3C FROM 00Z
WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS WARM UP AND HIGHS
YESTERDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING FROM
90 TO 95 DEGREES.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, HOWEVER SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS MORNING ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO EXTEND THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS THIS MORNING DIFFER ON
WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED TONIGHT AND
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS
MORNING AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE FURTHER SOUTH, NAM AND
RAP, SOLUTIONS. THIS SOLUTION WILL PLACE A COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE AN AREA OF FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATE TODAY,
HOWEVER BASED ON THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST
OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATE TODAY BY THE NAM AND RAP THERE APPEARS TO
BE ENOUGH CIN IN PLACE TO LIMIT THE CONVECTION CHANCES. HAVE
LOWERED THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE TODAY BUT KEPT SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR WHERE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HAIL
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER, HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD SHOULD ANY STORM
DEVELOP LATE TODAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL
BE NEAR THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND WERE A MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE 0-1KM LAYER NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IN THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG
THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN
FAVORING THE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL STAY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
MAIN HAZARDS FOR THESE STORMS LATER TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SATURDAY. A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE GFS
MODEL IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER WAVE AND DELAYS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO MONDAY. ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO. VERY WARM TEMPS WILL MAINTAIN ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.

THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE HARD TO PIN
POINT THIS FAR OUT AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS, AGAIN
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE I-70
CORRIDOR. ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, HOWEVER MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES DO
NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS AND SUPERCELLS.
MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATER IN THE PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND SHOULD BE SIMILAR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED
SOMETIME AROUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEW GUIDANCE MAINTAINS HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AFTER FRIDAY, BUT MAY BE TOO COOL AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS THEN COOL INTO THE 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
18-30KT THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 15-24KT THIS EVENING. SOME
STORMS MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE KHYS AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  93  67  93  67 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  94  66  92  66 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  65  92  65 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  97  67  94  67 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  90  67  91  65 /  20  40  20  30
P28  91  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE


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