Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261144

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
644 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Drier conditions are likely across the Western High Plains today as
any lingering rain across central Kansas will dissipate by mid day
as short range models indicate an upper level shortwave shifting
further east across the Central Plains into the Mississippi River
Valley. Well below normal temperatures can be expected today as
colder air surges southward into western Kansas in wake of the
cold frontal passage yesterday, dropping H85 temperatures to
around 5C across central Kansas to a little above 10C along the
Colorado border. Considering cloud cover may linger through much
of the morning, look for highs only up into the 50s(F) across
central Kansas to possibly the lower 60s(F) in extreme southwest
Kansas where clouds are likely to scatter out earlier in the day.
Expect lows down into the 30s(F) in central Kansas tonight with
the lower 40s(F) possible in far southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Precip chances return Thursday afternoon/evening as a series of H5
vort maxima transition across the Northern and Central Rockies
within a northwest flow aloft and kick out into the Western High
Plains. Medium range models continue to show them interacting with a
developing surface low generally across eastern Colorado and an
attendant frontal boundary resulting in possible shower and
thunderstorm development late in the day. Based on the projected
location of the developing surface low/boundary, the best chance for
precip is expected to be across west central and central Kansas late
in the afternoon through the evening hours. Considering the lack of
instability, any possible thunderstorms are likely to be isolated in
nature with low severe potential, if any.

A more significant chance for rainfall will be late this week into
the early part of the weekend as the GFS/ECMWF/GEM show an upper
level shortwave digging southeastward across the Four Corners Region
Friday, setting up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft
across the Western High Plains. There seems to be fair agreement
between the GFS, GEM, and the ECMWF indicating surface low pressure
developing to our south across the South Plains in response to the
approaching shortwave with an attendant frontal boundary extending
northeast somewhere generally across the Red River Valley into
Oklahoma. Meanwhile a modest upper level jet will lift northeast
across the panhandles of Oklahoma/Texas providing increased dynamic
support aloft. Although instability will remain fairly limited, this
will set the stage for rain shower development Friday night into

A slight warm up is expected Thursday as a strengthening surface
trough lee of the Rockies helps set up a south to southeasterly
upslope flow across western Kansas. This will draw marginally
warmer air into the high plains allowing highs to push well up
into the 60s(F) across southwest Kansas. A few mid to upper 50s(F)
will still be possible across central Kansas where the cooler air
mass will be slower to erode. Much colder temperatures are likely
this weekend as the GEM/ECMWF show another cold air mass surging
southward into the high plains, dropping H85 temperatures to near
0C in some locations by late Saturday. Near freezing surface
temperatures are a concern toward early Sunday morning.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

HRRR model shows the current MVFR cat cigs rapidly  lifting
around sunrise, but given the lower ceilings than what the HRRR
was showing we will hedge on lower for longer going into the
morning as update as needed. Drier air will overtake the area
however scouring out the low clouds as north winds remain in the
16 to 20 with 26+(gusts) knot range through the day.


DDC  60  38  64  41 /  10   0  30  40
GCK  60  38  65  40 /  10   0  30  40
EHA  62  42  69  40 /  10   0  20  10
LBL  61  41  71  41 /  10   0  20  20
HYS  57  35  57  41 /  10   0  50  60
P28  58  38  65  46 /  20   0  30  40




LONG TERM...JJohnson
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