Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 311922
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
222 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Precip chances will continue for portions of southwest and south
central Kansas tonight as short range models indicate a closed off
upper level low shifting eastward across extreme northern Mexico
setting up an increasingly difluent flow aloft across the South
Plains. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will backfill across the
Northern and Central Plains behind a frontal boundary in the Texas
Panhandle pushing further south into north Texas overnight, in
turn re-establishing an easterly upslope flow across eastern
Colorado. Even with a relatively weak flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains, thunderstorms are expected to develop
across eastern Colorado late this afternoon and evening as an H5
vort maxima is projected to eject out of the Colorado Rockies. The
storms will then spread slowly eastward toward the Kansas border
overnight with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms possibly
drifting into extreme western Kansas before dissipating as they
move into a more stable air mass. Additionally, a few post-frontal
showers may develop as far north as the Oklahoma Panhandle and
extreme southern portions of southwest and south central Kansas
tonight as the closed off upper low approaching the South Plains
interacts with the frontal boundary advancing southward into north
Texas. Severe weather is unlikely.

Near normal temperatures can be expected tonight as surface high
pressure moving eastward into the Northern Plains reinforces the
cooler air mass across the Western High Plains. Even with increased
cloud cover overnight, look for lows down into the 50s(F) early
Wednesday morning. The air mass will remain relatively unchanged
Wednesday as a result of an easterly upslope flow and increased
cloud cover across western Kansas. Highs only up into the 70s(F)
can be expected Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Precip chances will diminish across much of western Kansas
Thursday through the end of the week as medium range models
indicate the closed off upper low in the South Plains shifting
slowly eastward across Texas during the period. A weak flow aloft
and limited instability will hinder precip chances for the most
part, but a few stray showers cannot be ruled out near the
Oklahoma border considering better proximity to the closed low as
it passes immediatedly to our south. The quieter pattern is
expected to continue through the weekend as upper level ridging
amplifies across the Intermountain West. Meanwhile, a gradual
warming trend will continue Thursday even as the cool air mass
across the Western High Plains is slow to erode within a
southeasterly upslope flow. TheGFS/ECMWF show the air mass warming
only slightly with H85 temperatures nearing 20C in extreme
southwest Kansas. Depending on the extent of cloud cover from the
passing closed low to our south, highs are expected up into the
70s(F) Thursday afternoon with the lower 80s(F) possible further
north. The warming trend will continue Friday as the near surface
flow becomes more southerly ahead of an approaching cold front.
Should see highs in the 80s(F) Friday afternoon with the warming
trend leveling off this weekend in wake of the projected frontal
passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early
Wednesday morning. Light north to northeast winds will persist
across southwest and central Kansas through tonight as surface
high pressure moves slowly eastward across the high plains of
eastern Montana and eastern Wyoming.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  75  53  79 /  30  10  10  10
GCK  52  75  52  79 /  30  20  10   0
EHA  53  73  54  77 /  40  20  10  10
LBL  53  75  53  77 /  40  20  10  10
HYS  52  77  52  80 /  10  10   0   0
P28  58  77  56  79 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson



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