Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 012231
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
331 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MODERATE TEMPERATURE
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLING TREND FOR NW CALIFORNIA AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SMOKE FROM THE HAPPY CAMP COMPLEX TOWARD THE
COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE NOSING TOWARD
NWCA FROM THE SSW WHILE A MORE ZONAL PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE PAC
NW. THIS RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO WARM QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE RIDGE
SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE ESE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, OVERNIGHT
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODERATE. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE ZONAL
PATTERN BUCKLING OVER THE NEXT DAY AND DIGGING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD TURN THE FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE WESTERLY
ORIENTATION, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO
INDUCE A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO BE
MORE N TO NE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SMOKE FROM
THE HAPPY CAMP COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS THIS WIND
DIRECTION WILL LIKELY DRIVE SMOKE TOWARD OF NWCA THE COAST THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TO NWCA AS IT
PULLS IN COOL AIR FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE TROUGH ITSELF
PROVIDE A MIXING MECHANISM TO BRING SOME OF THAT COOL AIR TOWARD THE
SURFACE. OVERALL, THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY NICE, BUT
COOLER THAN TODAY.

FOR LATE WEEK WE ARE STILL WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES GRAVITATING TOWARD A
SOLUTION WITH ONE RUN MAINTAINING A CUTOFF LOW SOMEWHERE ALONG THE N
CAL COAST AND THE NEXT RUN ABSORBING THE UPPER LOW INTO THE BROADER
PATTERN. THE TWO PIECES TO WATCH WILL BE IF THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS
INTACT AND HOW MUCH SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
LOW. IF THESE OCCUR, THEN WE`LL BE LOOKING AT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
FOR CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES. DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO HAVE ANY
VALUE IN CHANGES. BFG

&&

.AVIATION...OFFSHORE WIND FLOW WILL RELAX TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE
AS A TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE PAC NW. SLIGHTLY MORE STRATUS AND
FOG MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY TUE MORNING ALONG THE NORTH COAST. THE
STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. NE-E FLOW FROM
THE HAPPY CAMP COMPLEX WILL PROBABLY TRANSPORT PATCHY SMOKE WESTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD AGAIN TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. SOME VSBY OBSCURATIOON
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE MORNING FROM THE SMOKE. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE PAC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS BUILDING RIDGE COUPLED WITH A
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATELY STRONG NORTH WINDS...MAINLY IN THE OUTER
WATERS...THROUGH WED NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REACH GALE FORCE AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUE. NORTHERLY GUSTS OF 40-45 KT ARE EXPECTED IN
PZZ470 ON WED AS THERMALLY INDUCE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES. A
WARNING HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE OUTER WATERS STARTING ON TUE AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WED NIGHT. A WATCH FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN
HOISTED FOR THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE MENDO...WITH STEEP SEAS
AROUND 13 FT EXPECTED WED NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO
TREND DOWNWARD ON THU AND FRI AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. THE NAM12 AND DGEX CONTINUE TO SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
ON THU SOUTH OF THE CAPE. THE SOUTHERLIES MAY ALSO SPREAD NORTH OF
CAPE MENDO BY FRI...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY
     PZZ450.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM PDT THURSDAY PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
     PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY PZZ475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM PDT THURSDAY PZZ475.

&&

$$

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