Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 210544
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...06Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH PATCHY 5-6SM VISIBILITY IN BR AROUND AUS.
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GENERALLY EXPECTING IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z-09Z OUT NEAR DRT AND LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
AROUND 12Z. IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING 10Z-12Z AT AUS/SAT/SSF. IFR
CEILINGS THEN PERSISTING UNTIL 16Z-18Z...BECOMING MVFR FOR THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND VFR OUT WEST NEAR DRT. E TO
SE WIND AROUND 5-10 KTS THIS LATE EVENING BECOMING LESS THAN
5 KTS AT AUS/SAT/SSF OVERNIGHT. S WIND 4-8 KTS DEVELOPING SUN
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...
TAKING A LOOK AT LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE/HI RES MODELS...ALL ARE
TRENDING TOWARDS FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
AREAS IN OUR NORTHEAST INCLUDING TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES
ARE ALREADY SEEING VIS DOWN TO 6 SM AS OF 03Z. WITH WIND FIELDS
LIGHT OR CALM AT MOST OB SITES...THINK VIS WILL BE DECREASED
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH
AREAS YET BUT WILL KEEP MONITORING AND WILL UPDATE WITH MORE
PRECISION IF WARRANTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY UPDATE FOR THE EVENING SHIFT WAS A TWEAKING OF THE MIN T GRID
AND HOURLY T GRIDS TO ENCOMPASS SOME MICRO CLIMATE EFFECTS IN THE
CWA. LOCATIONS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE ESCARPMENT ARE SEEING SOME
ACCELERATING COOLING DUE TO TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND TRIED TO MIMIC
THAT IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. SINCE A COUPLE LOCATIONS JUST OFF THE
ESCARPMENT ARE ALREADY WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THEIR FORECAST
LOWS...ATTEMPTED TO ADD A LITTLE MORE PRECISION TO THE MIN T GRID
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS MICRO CLIMATE EFFECTS. MAYBE AN EXERCISE IN
FUTILITY BUT AN EXERCISE NONETHELESS.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY QUIET. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EXCEPT FOR THE HILL COUNTRY. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CONTINUING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TOMORROW AFTER
MORNING LOWS REACH THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 40S. WE SHOULD HAVE MORE
CLEARING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE 40S AND 50S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THINGS WILL BE CHANGING BEGINNING MONDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD AND DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY. MOST OF OUR CWA WILL
SEE SSW WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH STRONG SW WINDS AT 850 MB. THIS
WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER
INCREASES TO THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WHICH WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST.

A STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
WILL ROTATE THROUGH TEXAS TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S
TO UPPER 30S. MANY AREAS IN THE HILL COUNTRY WILL LIKELY BE AT
FREEZING BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE.

THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA BY THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL BRING THE FLOW BACK FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
THIS WILL EQUATE TO LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. AS
THAT NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...IT WILL
SEND ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              43  60  51  70  50 /   0   0  -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  60  48  70  49 /   0   0  -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     42  61  50  72  51 /   0   0  -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  59  47  71  46 /   0   0   0  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           43  64  45  74  49 /   0   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        42  59  49  70  48 /   0   0  -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             40  62  48  73  47 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        42  61  49  70  50 /   0   0  -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   43  62  51  72  54 /  -   -   10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       44  61  51  72  50 /   0   0  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           44  62  50  73  50 /   0   0  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03





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