Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 210436
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1136 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES AT THE PRESENT TIME.
WE SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AT KDRT AROUND SUNRISE AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE RIO-GRANDE
PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES SHOW VERY
LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MVFR AT THIS TIME.
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. HAVE
MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO
A TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH NO POPS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM WITH
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE WEAKENING PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW SHOWN BY ALL MODELS TO REMAIN AN
OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MID INTO LATE WEEK. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS BACK EAST A
LITTLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THIS FORMER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR LEFT OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM AND NO POPS
ARE MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS ANY
RAINS WILL EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE RIDGE THEN FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES INTO
THE PLAINS NEXT MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...NO
POPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  62  84  62  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  80  57  83  57  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  60  86  58  85 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  59  82  58  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  66  83  65  84 /  30  20  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  59  83  60  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             80  62  85  59  85 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  60  84  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   82  60  85  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  64  86  61  85 /  10  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  63  86  59  85 /  10  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




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