Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 250924
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
324 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Strong surface based storms across Lavaca, DeWitt and Karnes
counties overnight are beginning to wane as the front slips a little
further south. Back to the southwest, a mid level shortwave is
approaching the region. There should be an expansion in the
development of showers through the remainder of the early morning
hours across the Winter Garden area then expanding quickly north and
east into portions of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and eastward
near and after daybreak. Mid level lapse rates should be sufficient
to generate isolated to scattered embedded thunderstorms through the
day. Temperatures across the eastern 2/3rds of the eastern half of
the CWA will remain cool, in the low 60s under cloud cover, while
clearing across the western CWA this afternoon should allow temps to
climb into the mid 70s.

The disturbance will lift northeast of the area mid afternoon
through mid evening and showers and storms will end west to east.
Drier air should temporarily work into the region tonight through
Monday allowing for warmer high temperatures Monday afternoon across
the eastern half of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Moisture surges back north into the area Monday night into Tuesday
morning with a warm front and another mid level shortwave from the
southwest. Should see patchy drizzle and fog developing southwest to
northeast overnight and into Tuesday morning along with isolated
showers. The better rain chances will likely shift northeast of the
CWA Tuesday afternoon as the mid level shortwave exits to the
northeast.

An upper level low will be digging into the desert Southwest Tuesday
night and the open and lift northeast on Wednesday and Wednesday
night through the Southern Plains. Ahead of it, models continue to
key in on a disturbance in the southwest flow aloft generating
chances for showers and storms Tuesday night across the western CWA
and into the Hill Country, then spreading northeast into portions of
the I-35 corridor on Wednesday.

Another cold front is advertised Wednesday night. The ECMWF has
trended toward the more progressive GFS and Canadian solutions. Low
chance PoPs are forecast for late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night along and ahead of the front. Better chances will likely
remain northeast of the area with the stronger forcing.

This front will be a Pacific in nature, bringing slightly cooler and
drier conditions to the region for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              64  48  70  54  70 /  60  10   0  20  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  64  44  69  53  71 /  60  10   0  20  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     63  46  69  54  72 /  60  10   0  30  50
Burnet Muni Airport            63  44  67  51  68 /  40  -    0  20  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  47  72  56  75 /  -    0   0  20  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        63  43  67  52  68 /  50  10   0  20  50
Hondo Muni Airport             68  44  72  55  73 /  60   0  -   30  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        63  46  69  53  72 /  60  10   0  20  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   64  50  69  56  73 /  70  20   0  20  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       65  48  70  55  72 /  60  -   -   30  50
Stinson Muni Airport           66  49  70  56  74 /  60  -   -   30  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...Runyen


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