Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 030434
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1134 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING A LITTLE LATER...AROUND 08-10Z.
MVFR SHOULD LAST UNTIL 16Z AND THEN LIFT TO VFR CIGS. THE I-35
SITES SHOULD HAVE SCT CLOUDS AFTER 20Z...BUT ALSO A PROB30 OF -TSRA
FROM 20-24Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AND BECOME 14G24KT AT 17Z
FOR KDRT...AND 12G22KT AT THE I-35 SITES AFTER 20Z. LOOK FOR A
REPEAT TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS STRATUS RETURNING TO THE
I-35 SITES AROUND 09Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
AREA RADAR DATA SHOWS CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WE HAVE SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST TO EXPAND RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. WE
STILL EXPECT A DECREASING TREND THIS EVENING...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MINOR
CHANGES HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE TO THE SKY COVER...WINDS AND DEW
POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD TO SCT SHRA WILL DISSIPATE BY 02Z AND HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT A REPEAT TONIGHT OF THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH
MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND 07Z AT THE I-35 SITES AND 10Z AT
KDRT. MVFR SHOULD LAST UNTIL 16Z AND THEN LIFT TO VFR CIGS. THE
I-35 SITES SHOULD HAVE SCT CLOUDS AFTER 20Z...BUT ALSO A PROB30 OF
TSRA FROM 20-24Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AND BECOME 10G22KT
AT 16Z FOR KDRT...AND AFTER 20Z AT THE I-35 SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A DEEPER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS NEAR 2 INCHES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING BY A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET. AS DOLLY MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS...THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE MORNING NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH DISSIPATION MOST AREAS BY SUNSET. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED
IN THE SOUTH AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCING
LIFT AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NIGHTTIME RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. A SLIGHT
COOLING OF HIGHS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REMNANT LOW OF DOLLY WILL DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SLOW TO DECREASE AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...RETREATING TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTLES OVER OUR AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. IN ADDITION...ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY BRIEFLY
MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BY TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES AND THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT ENDING THE RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER THE RIDGE...EXCEPT
A BRIEF DIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  98  76  98  77 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  97  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  96  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  95  75  95  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  96  74  96  74 /  20  30  10  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  96  77  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  96  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




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