Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 281610
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1010 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. HAVE ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FROM HAYS TO BEXAR TO VAL VERDE
COUNTIES. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM KERR TO
WILLIAMSON. THIS REQUIRED AN EXTENSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR KERR...KENDALL,,,AND BLANCO COUNTIES UNTIL NOON. THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING CONTINUE FOR GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET...
TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON. SEE BELOW FOR WHICH COUNTIES ARE IN WHICH
PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES OVER THIS AREA HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING AND
WE EXPECT THEM TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER AREA OF DRIZZLE IS MOVING INTO TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND
THIS DRIZZLE WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH FROZEN SURFACES. WITH
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ICY OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON UNTIL NOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT ANY ICE ON
ROADWAYS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING REGION WIDE WITH WORST
CONDITIONS AT KAUS WITH -FZDZ INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH
14-15Z COMBINED WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
ONGOING WITH -RA/DZ THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ICING ON
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE WITH A SATURATED SURFACE TO 1000 FT LAYER
THAT IS BELOW FREEZING WHERE LIQUID WATER EXISTS. THIS WATER COULD
ACCRETE TO EXPOSED METALLIC SURFACES. ICING RISK WILL END AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH 16-18Z AS ENTIRE PROFILE WARMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              45  42  64  52  67 /  50  40  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  43  64  52  69 /  50  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  43  66  55  71 /  50  40  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  39  61  45  59 /  40  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  44  69  55  72 /  20  20  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  40  61  46  63 /  50  40  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  44  68  56  73 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  43  65  54  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  48  66  57  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  44  67  56  71 /  50  40  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  45  68  58  74 /  50  40  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLANCO...BURNET...GILLESPIE...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




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