Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 272309
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
609 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PERIOD...
TSRA west of KDRT this afternoon will flirt with terminal space
through the first few hours of the TAF. Not expecting a direct impact
but an amendment may be needed if storms continue to develop farther
north and east. Otherwise, expecting CIGs to develop tonight to bring
terminals down to IFR and MVFR. Added lines for each anticipated
category change throughout the morning but also expecting development
of TSRA to begin reaching the TAF sites towards the end of the TAF
period. Did not include lines at this time due to uncertainty of
timing and direct impacts but wanted to include this possibility in
the discussion for later TAF issuances.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
Upper air analysis this morning showed nearly zonal flow over TX with
a trough over the central Rockies. At the surface, high pressure was
centered over the Gulf making the winds across our CWA from the south
to southeast. The dryline was stretched from north to south across
Terrell County west of Val Verde and a frontal boundary was across
OK and the Panhandle. The upper trough will move away from the
Rockies into the central plains and turn the flow over TX to the
south-southwest. Tonight the dryline will move slightly toward our
northwestern area and help develop convection over the Mexican
mountains. There is a chance some of these storms could cross into
TX and we have included slight chance POPs along the Rio Grande. The
frontal boundary will drop down to our northern border by Sunday
morning and then move through our CWA during the day. Thunderstorms
will develop along the front Sunday and continue into the evening.
Model soundings show high CAPE and moderate vertical wind shear and
SPC has included most of our CWA in a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms. The most likely threat will be damaging wind gusts
with a lower chance for large hail and a very low tornado threat.
There is also a chance for locally heavy rain from efficient, slow
moving storms. Storms should continue but weaken overnight into
Monday morning.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
The upper flow will remain west-southwesterly into the coming week.
A series of short wave troughs will move through the pattern bringing
chances for showers and thunderstorms for much of the week.
Convection will be more likely during the afternoons and evenings
with daytime heating and decrease at night. Monday looks like it will
have the best chance with the surface front still near our southern
border. With front to our south PW values will be reasonably low,
around 1.5 inches, so heavy rain is not likely. In addition there is
not strong signal for any severe storms, but it is still the end of
our climatologically most favored month for severe weather so we will
have to watch closely each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  91  70  83  67 /  -   40  70  50  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  91  69  82  66 /  10  30  70  60  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  91  70  81  66 /  10  30  70  50  30
Burnet Muni Airport            74  87  67  81  64 /  10  40  60  40  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  92  71  84  68 /  20  30  70  50  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  89  67  82  65 /  10  40  70  50  30
Hondo Muni Airport             75  92  70  83  66 /  10  30  70  50  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  91  69  82  66 /  10  30  70  60  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  91  71  82  69 /  10  30  70  60  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  92  71  82  68 /  -   40  70  50  30
Stinson Muni Airport           76  92  72  82  69 /  -   30  70  60  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...04
Public Service/Data Collection...Treadway



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