Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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187
FXUS64 KEWX 210429
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1029 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/

So far no fog has formed over eastern counties, but dew point
temperatures are suggesting low level saturation is likely along/east
of a TPL-EDC-T20 line in the next few hours. Will include some patchy
fog from 06 to 10z around AUS, and expect the westerly winds to
begin increasing after 09z. Otherwise a fair weather day is expected
over the TAF sites through at least late Tuesday night with a
moderate NW breeze. Persistence of north winds and/or drainage flow
should limit the potential for the ground fog to return early
Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

UPDATE... /ADDING PATCHY FOG & RW- EAST/

Sfc analysis shows the upstream surface low has recessed slightly
this evening before it is forecast to fill and shift east. Thus
surface southerly winds east of AUS should allow rain soaked soils to
mix into the low levels for a few hours overnight. A small pocket of
mid-level instability will drift southeast overnight, as some light
showers was seen slipping across AUS at 10 pm.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
The latest water vapor loop shows an upper level trough axis across
Texas and northern Mexico. Any precipitation associated with this
system is mainly across southeast Texas. There are some light echoes
on radar data along the Highway 77 corridor and we will hold on to a
low chance for showers for the next few hours across this region.
With the loss of daytime heating, any showers will dissipate.
Otherwise, a cold front will sweep across the region tonight,
dropping overnight lows into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Dry weather
and warm temperatures can be expected on Tuesday as highs range from
the mid 70s to mid 80s.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
A quiet weather pattern is in store for the upcoming work week as
zonal flow aloft remains intact across south central Texas. This will
lead to highs in the 80s on Wednesday and Thursday followed by
slightly cooler temperatures behind a dry cold front on Friday.
Temperatures cool down to near normal on Saturday as high pressure
and east to northeast winds spread across all areas. Return southerly
flow in the low-levels may bring a slight chance of rain Sunday into
Monday along and east of Highway 281. As of now, we will keep rain
chances low as model QPF and pops remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              53  78  51  84  55 /  -    0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  53  78  48  83  51 /  10   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     52  79  49  83  51 /  -    0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            49  75  48  82  52 /  -    0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           50  84  50  89  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        51  76  48  82  52 /  -    0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             48  81  47  86  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        53  78  49  83  51 /  -    0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   53  77  50  80  53 /  20   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       53  80  49  85  52 /  -    0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           52  80  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...Oaks
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams



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