Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 310147
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
847 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS ONLY PATCHY RAINS LEFT OVER FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
RAINS WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION
AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO STABILIZE WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING.
TTU-WRF HAS DONE WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS INDICATING WHERE THE RAIN
WILL FALL AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH OVER TEXAS. IT SHOWS
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS THE ONLY MODEL TO DO SO AND FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN ONGOING RAIN FREE FORECAST THERE...ALTHOUGH WILL BOOST
POPS TO THE MID TEENS. RAIN COOLED AIR IN AREAS HAS ALLOWED THE
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR FORECAST LOWS AND EXPECT STEADY TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE REESTABLISHED TRENDS TO THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH POPS DEPENDING ON THE MEANDERINGS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE SEABREEZE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION. CURRENT
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND BE GONE AFTER SUNSET.
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY
SHOULD SEE LESS AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT AREAS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF I-35. CURRENT GUIDANCE
IS NOT INDICATING ANY MVFR CIGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TRENDS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INCLUDE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
AT KDRT AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR AFTER 15Z.
OVERNIGHT LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS.
AFTER 16Z-19Z MONDAY WILL SEE WINDS BECOME SELY NEAR 10 KNOTS.
WILL SEE AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 18-20 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES SOUTH
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND
PRODUCE 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS. OVERALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WITH SOME PLACES
GETTING UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH. HIRES SOLUTIONS SHOW A BREAK FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER...RAIN RETURNS LATE MONDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY...EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. ALSO...THE INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES. CANT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS WITH PATCHY FOG THERE
AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
NOON MONDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. AS ABOVE-MENTIONED...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EAST OF I-35 WITH MAX-T REACHING CLIMATE NORMAL VALUES ACROSS MOST
AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
BETWEEN EAST TEXAS AND COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS A NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE GULF WITH ELEVATED PWAT
VALUES. SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
STAYS OVER SOUTHERN LA THROUGH FRIDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES LATER IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE GONE WITH 20-30% POPS EAST
OF I-35 EACH AFTERNOON WED-FRI. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND KEEPS THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  94  74  94  74 /  10  10  -   20   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  94  72  92  71 /  -   10  -   20   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  95  73  94  72 /  -   10  -   20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  93  73  93  72 /  20  10  -   10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  97  75  97  75 /  20  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  94  73  93  73 /  20  10  -   20   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  95  72  94  72 /  10  10  -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  93  73  93  72 /  -   10  -   20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  94  73  93  72 /  -   10  10  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  94  75  93  75 /  -   10  -   20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  95  74  94  74 /  -   10  -   20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04


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