Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 060857
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
357 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS TODAY AND
LINGERS OVER WESTERN TEXAS INTO THE BIG BEND THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS
INTO THE WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH PWS OF 1.7 TO 2 INCHES.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU TO THE RIO GRANDE. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS ON
TUESDAY AND SOME HEAVIER RAINS ARE POSSIBLE. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL IMPACT THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. MOISTURE DECREASES WITH PWS OF 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES
AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH NO POPS MENTIONED. LITTLE OR NO
TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE VAL VERDE COUNTY.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN
STATES SHIFTS WEST TO OVER TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE...WARM
MID LEVEL CAPPING TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIRMASS WITH PWS OF 1
TO 1.5 INCHES KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR A BRIEF INCURSION OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWS UP TO 1.8 INCHES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD ALLOW
SEABREEZE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE.
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON THIS AND WILL NOT MENTION POPS
FOR NOW TO AWAIT SOME CONSISTENCY AND ONLY HAVE SILENT 10S. ONLY A
VERY SLOW WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER LEVEL THICKNESSES ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASE ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL SOIL MOISTURE FROM THE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER RAINS. MAY
SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH 100 BY THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

BEYOND THIS FORECAST...MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WEST
AND A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EAST ALLOWING A VERY RARE MID JULY
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
CREATING A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  76  92  76  92 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  77  91  75  92 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     92  76  92  74  93 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  74  89  74  91 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  77  94  77  95 /  10  20  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  76  90  75  93 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  75  92  75  92 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        91  76  91  75  92 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  76  92  77  92 /  -   -   10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  76  91  76  92 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  76  92  75  92 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04



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