Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 101145
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
645 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.AVIATION...
AN IFR CLOUD DECK IS SPREADING TO THE WEST AND NORTHEAST FROM THE
EAST SIDE OF SAN ANTONIO. IFR CIG HAS MOVED OVER SSF AND WILL MOVE
INTO SAT SHORTLY. NOT EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO MAKE IT TO AUS...
BUT LOOKING FOR VIS TO DROP TO MVFR THERE. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD COME
TO ALL TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST TO THE LOWER
20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ALONG I-35.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND FAR NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
MOISTURE DEPTH WILL INCREASE. HAVE BOOSTED POPS SLIGHTLY OUT WEST
TODAY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OF LAST THREE DAYS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN MAINLY ISOLATED. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
OUR RIO GRANDE COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
SHOWING AN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING RAIN EVENT. HAVE BOOSTED
POPS INTO THE SCATTERED CATEGORY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES INDICATE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. LATER
SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE TRAINING OF RAINS IN THAT AREA.
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SLOW TO DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
HAVE LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE AIRMASS ALOFT DRIES WITH NO POPS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOWER LEVEL THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES INDICATE A SLOW WARMING TREND IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.
SOME SPOTS ALONG I-35 FINALLY SEE THEIR FIRST 100 DEGREE HIGHS OF
THE YEAR BY TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FORCING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BACK WEST. ALL MODELS NOW SHOW A
COLD FRONT MAKING A RARE MID JULY APPEARANCE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE GEM HAS A TUESDAY ARRIVAL WHILE ALL THE OTHER MODELS
HAVE A WEDNESDAY ARRIVAL. FAVOR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP A CATEGORY OR SO ACROSS
THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              97  73  97  73  98 /  20  -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  69  96  69  97 /  20  -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  70  96  71  97 /  20  -   10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  71  95  70  96 /  10  -   10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           96  72  92  74  96 /  20  40  30  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  70  96  71  98 /  10  -   10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  71  94  69  96 /  20  20  20  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        95  71  96  70  97 /  20  -   10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  74  95  73  96 /  20  -   20  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  94  73  96 /  20  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           94  73  95  72  96 /  20  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00




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