Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 011959

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
259 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Cloud cover and fog again tonight in our southeastern counties
will be the main forecast issue for the period.

Some radar returns have increased again in the far northern Red
River Valley as the weak shortwave continues to lift into southern
Canada. A few sprinkles may be hitting the ground, so included a
mention for a bit longer but think the sprinkles will be finished
before 00Z. The night should be fairly quiet as the surface high
pressure moves slightly further east while the surface trough
remains over the Northern Rockies. Southeasterly winds will keep
going throughout the night, which may bring a bit more mixing to
the eastern CWA than they have had the past few nights. On the
other hand, the wind direction is such that it could bring in
stratus and fog from central MN. Many of the high resolution short
range models have some lowered visibilities over the southeastern
counties for at least a portion of the night. Do not think we will
have widespread dense fog but will include a patchy to areas
mention for tonight. Lows will be in the 50s with some mixing.

Tomorrow the upper ridge axis begins to move off to the east, with
an inverted surface trough entering central ND. Southeasterly
winds will continue, and stratus and fog should dissipate over the
southeast by mid morning. Highs should again get into the upper
60s and 70s. Think at this point that precip along the surface
trough will stay west of the CWA through 00Z so kept us dry
through then.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Monday through Tuesday...Models overall remain a little slower on
bringing in any pcpn to the FA with this next system. May start
to see some more light pcpn move into the Devils Lake region and
northern Red River Valley late Sunday night into Monday. Looks
like more of a WAA situation with sfc low/front well west of
region. This combined with low elevated CAPE leads to more of a
rain versus thunder pcpn type in the grid work. The activity will
move slowly eastward by Monday night. Sfc low slowly edging out of
northern high plains with warm front stretching from Saskatchewan
through Manitoba offers decent dry slot chances on Tuesday. Best
chances for showers or some isolated thunder probably later Tues
night with approach of occluded/cold front.

Wednesday through Saturday...Some def zone pcpn possible during part
of Wednesday, especially north of US 2 before attention turns to
a bout of some colder air to end the week. 850 mb temps will tend
to dip a few degrees below 0C at times Thu/Fri. A cylinder of high
pressure will be the dominate surface feature during this time,
but any mid to upper ripples that move through could touch off a
few showers of rain or dare we say snow. High temperatures near 60
on Wednesday will show a marked decrease into the low 50s by
thursday and Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Some lower stratus has been hanging on at KBJI, but think it
should come back up to MVFR in the next hour or so and then all
sites should be VFR for a period this evening. With southeasterly
winds continuing, think there will again be some stratus and fog
moving into our southeastern forecast area later tonight, and the
short range models seem to bear this out. Have KBJI going back
down to MVFR then IFR in ceilings and vis after 08Z tonight, with
some 1SM or lower possible. That site should recover by the end
of the period back up to VFR. Do not think at this point the
stratus and fog will get too far north and west so will keep other
TAF sites VFR throughout the period. Winds will stay out of the
southeast at 8 to 12 kts.




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