Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210926

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
326 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Forecast challenges will be fog this morning, pcpn chances and
type for the band of echoes currently moving through the Devils
Lake region, and possible record highs again today. Starting in
order, fog continues along and east of the Red River Valley early
this morning. There are a few spots of locally dense fog, mainly
on the edge of the low clouds/clearing, or from Grafton to
Bemidji, and down toward Park Rapids. However, even in these
areas, the vsbys have been bouncing around. There is also a mid
cloud deck moving into that area, which has helped limit fog
formation over eastern ND. So at this point, a dense fog advisory
is not planned. Secondly, there is an area of light pcpn around
Bottineau heading toward Langdon. The echoes look worse on radar
than what sfc observations have been showing, which are very light
amounts. Did keep some low pcpn chances along the Canadian border
this morning for this, which is likely mixed pcpn.

Finally, it looks like Fargo will have one more day with a record
high, as we are forecasting temps to rise into the low 50s there.
Elsewhere, expect a fairly big north to south temp gradient.
Looking into tonight, models continue to show fairly big
discrepancies with the next shot of pcpn for the FA. There remain
some timing, placement, and amount issues, but they generally
keep the idea of better chances over the northern half of the FA.
Once again, pcpn type will be an issue. The warmer sfc temps
remain along the southern edge of this pcpn band, with colder
temps near the Canadian border. This would give a mix or rain
along the southern edge and a mix or snow along the Canadian

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Colder air will continue to sag southward on Wednesday, along
with the area of light pcpn. Once again models differ fairly
significantly on pcpn amounts. The WPC day 2 snow map shows an
inch or two possible across the central FA, but since this is
falling during the day, sfc temps could still be fairly mild. This
could cut into how much snow falls, and for that reason kept with
the idea of less than inch. Expect a break in the pcpn for late
Wed night into Thursday, before the next system brushes the far
southern FA with a little light snow Thursday night. This system
is still targeting areas further south of the FA with more
effects, or over southern SD into southern MN.

For Friday, models continue in general agreement on placement and
track of a Colorado Low system bringing heavy snow across the
Central Plains. At this time, the consensus is the system will track
south of the area. Otherwise...should see mainly dry northerly flow
across the region and light snow amounts for the far southern
portions of the forecast area. Temperatures Thursday will still
remain slightly above normal.

After the system passes, there will be a return to near normal
temperatures...with highs in the lower 20s to middle 30s...and lows
in the single digits to middle teens. The forecast for the weekend
looks mostly dry but cannot completely rule out some flurries over
the weekend as a shortwave disturbance or two pass overhead. By
Monday...surface high pressure tracks east into the Great
Lakes...and return flow will start to bring a bit warmer temps
to end the forecast period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Stuck with the idea of fog developing, potentially dense at times.
Most likely area for LIFR conditions will be east of the valley.
Any low cigs/dense fog will dissipate by early afternoon.




LONG TERM...Godon/Hopkins
AVIATION...TG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.