147
FXUS63 KFGF 150303
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1003 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms this
  evening into tonight. The main hazards will be damaging wind
  gusts, hail, and flash flooding.

- There is a level 1 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms for
  portions of west central Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. Hazards
  could include damaging wind gusts and hail.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The low level jet is starting to kick in. It is now just a
matter of time until storms develop on the nose of the jet,
which is still expected to reside near US Highway 2. The
environment in this area will favor large hail to about ping
pong balls. If these storms set up over more urban areas such as
Grand Forks, street flooding is also be a concern in the
typical poor drainage areas.

Further south and west, storms have developed over south central
ND into SD. Storms over western and central SD have had severe
wind gusts. This environment does extend into our far southern
FA, characterized by DCAPE of up to 1500 J/Kg and MUCAPE of 4000
J/Kg. Questions remain, but recent radar trends show an uptick
in activity, aiding in the idea that at least strong storms
will push through the southern FA. Severe risk in this area
should be confined to mostly a wind threat.

UPDATE
Issued at 705 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

We are in a wait and see period right now as to how convection
will evolve this evening. Several boundaries are evident on
radar, the clearest running west to east north of Highway 200,
but nothing has formed yet. As the sun sets, storms should fire
on the nose of the WAA regime, generally along/to the north of
US Highway 2. Shear, as shown in long looping hodographs, will
support large hail as the main threat with any elevated clusters
(or even stray elevated supercell) that form. Another area to
watch is west of the FA, where storms are developing in SD.
Depending how this holds together, storms could push into our
southwestern FA as well tonight. Otherwise, just blended in
observations to the latest forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...Synopsis...

Zonal H5 flow prevails through the next several days, with ridging
supported in the southeast CONUS and a deep H5 trough over the
Hudson Bay. Several shortwaves traverse the flow this week, with the
first bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area this afternoon
through around Wednesday morning. Very warm temperatures today fall
towards normal values heading into the middle part of this week. The
active shortwave pattern prevails into the end of the week and into
the weekend; however, the best chances for precipitation will be
this afternoon into Tuesday.

...Severe Thunderstorms Possible Today and Tuesday...

MUCAPE values this afternoon and evening continue to climb into the
1500 to 2000 J/Kg range. Cooler air at the surface and very warm
850mb temps are ensuring strong capping for most locations. A
frontal boundary continues to lift north, however, which will
provide an axis of development in the 850mb layer and up, with
favorable conditions for elevated clusters of storms. The primary
risk will be hail and flash flooding; however, damaging wind gusts
could be a risk as well, mainly during the mid to late afternoon.
With PW in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range, and a slow-moving boundary, we
need to consider the possibility of flash flooding.

The front moves slowly southward on Tuesday as the shortwave pushes
across the area. Similar expectations exist for the environment
Tuesday afternoon and evening, with the risk area shifting slightly
to the southeast. There remains about a 30 to 40 percent chance
of 1 inch or more precipitation this evening and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 705 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Complex TAFs for the next 24 hours, with thunderstorms and smoke
bringing potential impacts. Thunderstorms are expected to fire
after sunset, impacting KGFK and KTVF after midnight. There is
less certainty with how storms will form further west and east,
thus went with a PROB30 for KDVL and KBJI for overnight storms.
Heavy rain reducing visibility and ceilings down to MVFR will
be possible. Storms slowly clear Tuesday morning, bringing
ceilings. However, model guidance is hinting at a brief but
potent period of smoke Tuesday afternoon, especially at KGFK,
KTVF and KBJI. Right now, went with 6SM during the period of
smoke concern, but this will be refined in
timing/severity/location in the next several sets of TAFs before
it arrives.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Rafferty