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000
FXUS63 KFGF 120937
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
337 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
CHANCES/AMOUNTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND
WILL USE BLEND.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES INTERACTING WITH FAIRLY STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

LEAD BAND OF -SN HAS EXITED FA TO THE EAST WITH NEXT AREA OF -SN
PUSHING INTO SE CORNER OF SASK. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THIS BAND
WILL HOLD TOGETHER TODAY. GFS/GEM BRING BAND THROUGH DURING THE
DAY HOWEVER ECMWF/NAM AND MESOSCALE MODELS MAINLY DRY AS BAND MOVES
INTO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. FOR THIS WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW END
AND ADJUST ONCE -SN APPROACHES. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS SPREADING
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE STARTING OUT MUCH WARMER THIS AM. BAROCLINIC
ZONE DRAPED ACROSS FA FROM NW-SE CHANGES LITTLE TODAY SO EXPECT
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS SW AND COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
WITH WARMER START MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 ACROSS THE FAR SW.

STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE FA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. ALL MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING SNOW IN AND ADJUSTED
TIMING BUT FAVORED LOCATION REMAINS THE SAME. STILL LOOKS LIKE
PARTS OF THE DVL BASIN INTO FAR NORTHERN VALLEY REGION MAY PICK UP
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES SO STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NE WHICH HAS BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING LESS CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013

LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS TIMING OF
WAVES THIS FAR CHANCY. DOES LOOK LIKE NEXT WAVE MAY SHIFT -SN MORE
TOWARDS NE FA SO BUMPED POPS UP A LITTLE THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN WILL HINGE GREATLY ON CLOUD COVER SO MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT BUT STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
SUNDAY/S SHORT-WAVE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER
NORTH...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...THE GFS/ECMWF IS ON THE WARM/COOL SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE FOR SUNDAY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE USING ALLBLEND AS A
FIRST GUESS WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MOST
PLACES. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEARLY 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT WARMING BY MONDAY AS A STRONG WARM
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO BETWEEN -2 AND -8 C...AND WITH A FAVORABLE WESTERLY SURFACE
WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY RISE INTO THE 20S AND MAY EVEN SEE
SOME LOWER 30S ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

COOLER AIR MASS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
HIGHER THAN OUR CURRENT ICE BOX WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS
ABOVE ZERO. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL WITH BUILDING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE.

LATE IN THE PERIOD...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ALLOWING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO BECOME A BIT MORE ZONAL OR EVEN SOUTHWESTERLY. MODELS HINT
AT SNOW CHANCES BEGINNING TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW. WILL BE WATCHING
THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY OVER THE ENSUING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS CIGS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL FORECAST AREA HAVE STAYED ABOVE 3500 FT.
CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE KDVL AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREADING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THEN SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...ROGERS/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR