Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 302239
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
339 PM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIMITING STORMS TO
THE FAR EASTERN BORDER BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. HAIL HAS GENERALLY BEEN ON THE SMALL SIZE,
ALTHOUGH WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF DIME SIZED HAIL IN YAVAPAI COUNTY
EARLIER IN THE DAY. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

BEGINNING TUESDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO SET UP
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE
TO THE EASTERN BORDER BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THE
DRIER AIR WILL COME COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH...ALONG WITH GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT TSRA TO CONTINUE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS EVENING...DECREASING AFT 03Z.
EXPECT MVFR CIG/IFR VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
EXPECT ISOLD -SHRA AFTER 03Z...WITH STORMS REDEVELOPING AGAIN OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY 18Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...BAK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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