Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221355 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
655 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN
DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST BY
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SIT OVER WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND DUE TO THE CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...THIS CIRCULATION WILL TEND
TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. CURRENTLY 1.0"+ PW AIR HAS MOVED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH 1.5"+ PW AIR OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
IS THE AIRMASS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE...THEN
CHANCE SHRA/TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS FLAGSTAFF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN TO THE GRAND CANYON COUNTRY BY THE WEEKEND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIALLY FORM WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS...THEN WETTER
STORMS WILL REPLACE THE HIGHER BASED STORMS AS THE MOISTURE
PROGRESSES NORTHWESTWARD.

THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FROM THE
COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z  PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS FU WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. LOOK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA BTWN 18Z
TUE -03Z WEDS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF












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