Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 261013
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STARTING TODAY AND HEADING INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

FOR TODAY...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM
THE WEST. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND FOUR CORNERS AREA. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH
BASED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING THE MAIN
THREAT.

ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER THAN THE LAST
SEVERAL SUCH DISTURBANCES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY AND THE COMING WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR ARE HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE 17Z-03Z ALONG THE
UTAH AND NEW MEXICO BORDERS...INCLUDING NEAR THE KPGA TERMINAL...
THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER ARIZONA. ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE UTAH AND NEW MEXICO
BORDERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND ARE IN
STORE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY
15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ



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