Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 210330
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH CLEARING SKIES SHOULD
MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF
CALIFORNIA AND MOVING SLOWLY EAST. FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40. DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO WESTERN AZ SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 340 PM...

FOR OVERNIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
WILL PROVIDE WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT AND SOME COOLING ALOFT ALONG WITH
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROM THE WESTERN AND EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWEST TO THE KAIBAB PLATEAU. THERE COULD BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN
NORTHWEST AZ.

ON SUNDAY...THE LOW BEGINS TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD. WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER
ARIZONA...MAINLY NORTH OF  I-40. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS
WILL BE NORTH OF I-40 AND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH
GRADUAL DRYING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
QUICKLY THE DRYING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY...AND THERE CERTAINLY
WILL BE SOME UPDATES...TO TRIM PRECIP CHANCE OVER PORTIONS OF
YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES IF NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. A VERY STABLE AIR MASS
OVERHEAD WILL SHARPLY LIMIT DAYTIME CONVECTION WITH FAIR NIGHTS
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW THAT A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY
INTERACT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...TIMING IS THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE OF MODELS. WE`LL KEEP YOU POSTED.
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AT 15
MPH...WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. EXPECT SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40.
CLEARING CONDITIONS MOVE INTO WESTERN AZ SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL  TEC
AVIATION.......DL  BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











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