Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 061651
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
951 AM MST MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY. THIS DRIER AIR
TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...SKIES HAVE CLEARED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SELIGMAN TO TUBA
CITY, TO FOUR CORNERS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN SEASONABLY HIGH
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THIS
MORNINGS BELLEMONT SOUNDING INDICATE SOME DRYING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS UP TO AROUND 15K FT ABOVE SEA LEVEL. STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING THOUGH POSSIBLY NOT AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY. AREAS NORTHWEST OF FLAGSTAFF COULD BE QUITE
ACTIVE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT RESIDE IN THAT
AREA. UPDATES SENT A SHORT TIME AGO TO END MORNING SHOWERS SOUTH
OF I-40, OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /345 AM MST/... VERY MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FINALLY WINDING DOWN ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY AT
3 AM AFTER RAINING FOR MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA IS LIKELY
WORKED OVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND CHANCES WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT
CHANCE PER HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE.

ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD DELAY THE ONSET OF CONVECTION TO AFTER 11 AM...WITH STORMS
MOST LIKELY FORMING OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND EASTERN RIM
FIRST...AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TUESDAY IS LOOKING SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. DRIER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SWRN
AZ.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WE SHOULD BE SEEING DRY WEATHER
WITH MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM PAGE
TO PAYSON. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED EAST OF THIS LINE. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SETS UP ALONG THE WEST COAST. FORECAST HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES PER MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MODELS SHOW THE MONSOON PLUME TO PUSH WESTWARD STARTING SATURDAY
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOLLOW SUIT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH 04Z WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDS IN STORMS. ISOLD-SCT
TSRA/-SHRA MAY ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A MOIST AND USTABLE
CIRCULATION PATTERN GOING TODAY FOR A GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE MOISTURE LEVELS
RESULTING IN LESS STORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE...WITH DECREASING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/DL
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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