Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 312233
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
333 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY
AND A STEADY DECREASE NEXT WEEK AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&
.DISCUSSION...IT WAS AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WERE NOT MOVING VERY FAST SO THERE WAS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY
EXPECTED.

FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO MOVE
INTO ARIZONA WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVER MOST
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNS TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH WITH CHANCES OF STORMS INCREASING.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA IN
TO THE EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE LOCAL
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY RAIN. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER
AROUND 17Z SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DECREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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