Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 201026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
326 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly dry weather and warm temperatures are forecast
through the middle of this week. Expect breezy winds by Wednesday
afternoon followed by a chance for showers and much colder
temperatures into Thursday as a passing cold front moves through
the area. Additional chances for precipitation return over the


.DISCUSSION...Most shower activity has come to an end as high
pressure builds into the area from the southwest this morning.
Low clouds and some patchy fog will persist over much of the area
through about sunrise. The southern extent of another moisture
plume affecting CA has spread some low clouds into the Las Vegas
valley this morning which are expected to spread eastward into
Arizona through the day keeping areas from the Mogollon Rim
westward mostly cloudy. Otherwise, expect fair weather with
temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.

Southwesterly flow aloft will be in place through Wednesday with
troughing over the northwestern US and the aforementioned high
pressure moving into the southern plains. Expect warm weather with
high temperatures peaking on Tuesday. There may be just enough
moisture for a brief passing shower on Tuesday over the Grand
Canyon region with otherwise dry weather expected through

Southwest winds increase Wednesday as a cold front approaches
Arizona. Expect gusts of 30 to 40 mph. The front is slated to move
through the area Wednesday night through Thursday morning bringing
the best chance for light shower activity. Models are trending
drier on precipitation amounts, and most of the precipitation
looks to impact areas mainly along the I-40 corridor north to the
Utah border. Noticeably colder temperatures will follow for
Thursday - about 15 degrees colder.

There still remains plenty of spread among the depth and timing
of next weekend`s trough, but additional rain/snow are possible
with even colder temperatures.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect wdsprd bkn-ovc cigs from
3-5 kft agl through 20-22Z. Areas of IFR/LIFR condtions will
affect higher terrain sites, especially along and just west of the
Kaibab Plateau, Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Mainly VFR
conditions 22Z-02Z under bkn-ovc middle and high cloud layers.
Local IFR/LIFR conditions possible 02Z-12Z in low CIGS/VSBY for
elevations above 6500 feet MSL. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.






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