Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 242151

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
251 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure will be parked over Arizona
through the holiday weekend with clear and dry weather. Daytime
temperatures will be near record warm levels through Sunday. Windy
and much cooler conditions are expected early next week with some
showers possible along the Utah border.


.DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure will slowly shift to the east
over the next few days while remaining the dominant weather
feature for northern Arizona. This will bring continued near
record warm temperatures, dry weather, and generally light winds.

Models are in good agreement on a trough and associated cold
front crossing the region Monday evening. Strong winds aloft will
mix to the surface ahead of the cold front with gusts of 40-45 mph
possible across a large chunk of the area. Latest guidance
continues to indicate moisture along and ahead of this front will
remain near the UT/AZ border with a chance of showers. Behind the
front, temperatures will cool to around normal values for this
time of year Tuesday and Wednesday. Model solutions diverge with
the track of another weak trough late Wednesday into Thursday.
The latest GFS tracks the trough farther south over northern
Arizona while the ECMWF and GEM keep the system to the north of
the area. Therefore, confidence from mid week onward is low.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions will continue under
mostly clear skies. W-NW wind at 10-20 kt becoming light and
variable after 02z. S-SW wind around 10 kt developing after
18z Sat. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Strong high pressure will lead to a continuation of
record setting temperatures through the weekend. Otherwise, expect
dry weather under mostly clear skies.

Monday through Wednesday...Expect strong southwest winds Monday
ahead of an approaching cold front. Light showers are possible late
Monday and Tuesday north of Interstate 40. Winds switch to the north
on Tuesday, with cooler temperatures forecast for Tuesday and






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