Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 281125
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
425 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY BRINGING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS
SUGGEST PEAK WIND GUST POTENTIAL AT AROUND 40KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A SYSTEM CLIMBING THE
RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN IN THE EVENING THEN LIGHT
RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOWING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND NAM NOTABLY DRY AT
THIS POINT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF A NORTON TO LEOTI LINE IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SATURDAY...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY THEN SLOWLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE TROUGHS ARRIVAL WILL IMPACT CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AS WELL AS COLD FRONTS ARRIVAL. ONCE THE FRONT DOES MOVE
THROUGH GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED. STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY BEFORE
DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.

SUNDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE (FOR THIS MODEL CYCLE) THAT CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE LEAVING A MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY. DURING
THE NIGHT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS FROM THE WEST
PRODUCING A PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. MAY SEE A BIT OF
GUSTINESS TO THE WIND DURING THE MORNING BEFORE THEY SUBSIDE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 20S
TO LOW 30S (EAST TO WEST). HOWEVER...850MB TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF/GFS
OF -3C TO -14C (WEST TO EAST) AND LATEST MEX GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT
READINGS A FEW TO PERHAPS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY 10F TO 16F...COLDEST ACROSS THE EAST AND PARTS OF FAR
EASTERN COLORADO.

MONDAY...SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THAT PERHAPS MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
(PER MODEL RH FORECASTS) THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SHOULD BE DRY
DURING THE DAY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR MUCH OF OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES WHERE 850-500RH MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
EXTENDED FORECAST PROCEDURE PAINTS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MCCOOK
AND NORTON AREAS OVERNIGHT...CANT SAY IT WONT HAPPEN PER ABOVE
MENTIONED 850-500 MOISTURE SO WILL RIDE WITH IT FOR NOW. WARM AIR
ALOFT NUDGES ITS WAY INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE EASTERN PART
OF THE AREA UNDER THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT. CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW 30S
EAST AND LOW 40S WEST LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE 850MB FORECAST TEMPS. LOW
TEMPERATURES MID TEENS EAST TO LOW 20S WEST.

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR THE EXTENDED PROCEDURES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE NIGHT AS ECMWF/GFS 850-
500RH FORECASTS PUSH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM AND CURRENT FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 30S EAST
TO LOW/MID 40S WEST LOOKS REASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING
UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PEAK WIND
GUSTS OF AROUND 40KTS EXPECTED AT KGLD AND 30KTS AT KMCK DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024



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