Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 301919
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
119 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
227 AM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016
Widely scattered thunderstorms will slide across western and
southern portions of the area during the overnight/early morning
hours. These are associated with another weak shortwave trough
rotating around the upper ridge. Models suggest the next one will
bring a chance for thunderstorms this afternoon in northeastern
parts of the forecast area...nudged slightly further north by the
strengthening ridge aloft. A severe storm or two is possible given
favorable instability and deep layer shear parameters. There could
be some residual storm chances tonight with any convection moving
out of eastern Colorado...but with increasing CINH and decreasing
shear by that time those will not likely pose a severe risk. An
outflow boundary or front is forecast to sag into the area from
the north overnight. Easterly surface winds and low level moisture
behind it will be favorable for the development of low clouds and
areas of fog overnight and into Sunday morning.
The aforementioned boundary could be a focus for convection
Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night. It will be very
unstable north of the boundary and a fairly well defined upper
wave is forecast to move out of Colorado Sunday evening. One
negative factor for severe storms will be relatively weak deep
layer shear at around only 20kts. Increased pops to chance
category Sunday night mainly because of the better synoptic scale
forcing with the shortwave aloft.
Location of the low level surface boundary will probably be the
key to thunderstorm chances on Monday. Models suggest it will be
hanging around and be the focus for convection. Synoptic scale
forcing continues to be rather nebulous but there are indications
of a possible embedded wave rotating around the upper ridge to our
south...which has been more than enough forcing the last few days
given the very unstable environment. However, deep layer shear on
Monday will be weak, less than 20kts, which may mitigate the risk
for severe storms.
Temperatures will be near normal today then warm to above normal
Sunday and Monday with the strengthening ridge.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 118 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016
The extended period will have an active weather pattern. The source
of moisture everyday will be the Monsoonal moisture from the
southwestern states. Even though each day has the potential for
precipitation and storm chances, the process in which they will
occur will vary as the week progresses.
The beginning half of the period, Sunday night through Tuesday, will
have the CWA under a ridge. Sunday night in particular looks to have
a boundary set up that will help increase PoP potential, as well as
a mid-level shortwave that moves through. Monday and Tuesday are
similar, weak shortwaves will move through the region under the
ridge and help with precipitation chances. Right now storms are not
anticipated to be severe.
Wednesday and Thursday will be influenced by a low pressure that
moved into the Pacific Northwest on Monday and began to trek across
the USA, Canadian border through the week. Come mid week, that low
pressure will start moving just north of the CWA and push the ridge
east of the region. This will create a southwesterly flow into the
CWA, thus creating a better chance to tap into the Monsoonal
moisture and bring it into the area. Late Wednesday night has a
boundary that sets up over the CWA, and that in addition to a
shortwave will help bring precipitation chances to the region. Come
Thursday a cold front will push over the northern portions of the
CWA helping with forcing and creating better storm potential all
By the end of the week the low pressure will have moved over the
northeastern states and a ridge begins to push into the western
states. Friday is variable on what may happen though. Current
surface analysis has the cold front lingering over the region. If
this holds true it will continue to help with precipitation chances.
Yet, via current model runs, there is an embedded upper level trough
in the ridge to the west of the CWA. So this will also help with PoP
chances Friday, due to keeping a southwesterly flow into the region.
Temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s Monday
through Wednesday before dropping into the low 80s to low 90s by the
end of the week in the wake of the cold front passage.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016
For Kgld...isolated thunderstorms are expected during the late
afternoon and early evening. At this time it looks like they will
be just east of the site. So will only insert vcts from 00z to
04z. Some fog is expected again late tonight into early Sunday.
Chose to just have 6sm from 12z to 16z.
For Kmck...There will be a better chance of thunderstorms to
affect the site. However due to spotty coverage will only insert
vcts from 22z to 04z. Later tonight, mvfr conditions are expected
from 10z to 15z.