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000
FXUS63 KGRB 011749
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1149 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

NO CHANGES TO ONGOING HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. NOTICED WINDS AT
MANITOWOC HAVE DIMINISHED THE LAST FEW HOURS. ITS POSSIBLE
CONVERGENCE REGION OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE SNOW BAND IS
OVER THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. RADAR RETURNS ALSO
HAVE STARTED TO FILL IN OVER DOOR COUNTY AS WELL BUT OBSERVATIONS
STILL GREATER THAN 6 MILES AT SUE. DIFFICULT TO SEE AN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND WITHIN THE SYSTEM SNOW COVERAGE RETURNS BUT IT APPEARS
AN AREA OF HIGHER RETURNS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KEWAUNEE INTO
MANITOWOC COUNTY AT 615 AM. CALL TO SHERIFF INDICATED 3-4 INCHES
AT TWO RIVERS AND 2 INCHES AT MANITOWOC...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN
KEWAUNEE COUNTY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

LARGE WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE...WITH
WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA SNOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...OR ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
29. OVERALL HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 21 THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER RADARS EARLY THIS AM ALREADY SHOWING BANDED SNOW FROM ISW
TO ATW. DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE A HEALTHY CUT OFF
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. DUE TO A COMBO OF 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW AND STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WILL ISSUE A SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...AND ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR MANITOWOC COUNTY DUE TO SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH ANY LAKE ENHANCED BANDS. HOWEVER THE TIPPING
POINT OF PUTTING MTW COUNTY INTO THE WARNING IS THE DEVELOPING
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH LINGER INTO THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL
OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OVER MTW COUNTY
TODAY DURING THE PEAK OF THE WINDS. WEAK RETURNS WERE SHOWING UP
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AFTER 2
AM THESE RETURNS WERE GETTING COVERED UP BY THE EXPANDING SYSTEM
SNOW...AND AVAILABLE GROUND TRUTH INDICATE MINOR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY SO FAR. ANOTHER ISSUE IS KEWAUNEE COUNTY WITH RESPECT TO
THE STRONG NE WINDS...EVEN THOUGH SYSTEM SNOW AMOUNTS PROBABLY ONE
INCH...AND ONLY ABOUT 2 INCHES ON THE GROUND...WILL ISSUE A
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TO BUFFER MANITOWOC COUNTY...BUT LIKELY
THE BLOWING SNOW MIGHT BE THE DOMINATE ISSUE. CONFIDENCE OF LAKE
SNOW BANDS STAYING OVER KEWAUNEE COUNTY LESS. THE LARGE SNOW
GROWTH REGION WITH THE GRB FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SUPPORT THE
BANDS MAY BE MORE ROBUST DEPENDING ON THE WINDS.

SYSTEM PULLS OUT TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS
OVER THE LAKE SHORE REGION. QUIET BUT COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

TIMING AND LOCATION OF SNOW CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD BE MAINLY WEST-NORTHWEST SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD.

00Z GFS BROUGHT QPF ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT 00Z
ECMWF/GEM/NAM WERE ALL FARTHER NORTH WITH IT SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR THAT PERIOD. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THOUGH
THE GEM LOOKED TOO FAST. HAVE A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR PART OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN 18Z TUE-00Z WED. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA. CHANCES SHOULD BE MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. SNOW
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN UNCERTAIN DUE TO TIMING AND
LOCATION DIFFERENCES IN MODEL QPF. HAVE A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY FROM THE INITIAL BLEND SO HAVE
STAYED WITH THAT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL IFR
WEATHER AT MANITOWOC AND OSHKOSH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED NORTH OF THERE TO ROUGHLY A
WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO DOOR COUNTY LINE. MAINLY VFR NORTH OF THERE
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 30000 FEET. BECOMING VFR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE NEAR
GALE GUSTS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF KEWAUNEE AND NEAR GALE GUSTS FOR
LOCATIONS NORTHWARD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ045-
048-049.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ040.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ050.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......
MARINE.........TDH