Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 310404
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1204 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move into the region tonight then
dissipate. Another cold front will move through the region on
Tuesday but not before temperatures warm into the 80s again. High
pressure will build in from the northeast Tuesday night through at
least Thursday night with cooler temperatures but fair weather. A
front moves through the area on Friday with a chance of showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
midnight update... shower activity has come to an end. stratus
deck is moving through Massachusetts and will impact the coastal
locations overnight. Inland expect fog to form in the river
valleys early this morning.



A weak cold front will approach from the northwest later this
afternoon. This may be enough to trigger a few thunderstorms. With
some CAPE in place along with modest deep layer shear, a few
storms may produce gusty winds and small hail. At this time it
appears as though the best chance of strong storms will be across
the western ME mountains as well as near the MA/NH border. One or
two severe storms are not out of the question. The activity should
wane after sunset with loss of daytime heating. Thereafter, areas
of fog are expected to develop overnight but it should remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Another cold front will approach from the northwest on Tuesday.
Ahead of this front temperatures should climb well into the 80s.
Dewpoints should mix out some and therefore limit instability. The
best forcing for ascent will be across northernmost zones and that
is where we have chance pops for showers and thunderstorms. Cooler
and drier air moves in Tuesday night as high pressure builds in.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds into eastern Maine and the Canadian Maritimes
on Wednesday with a cool easterly flow setting up over much of New
England. This pattern continues for Thursday with the flow
becoming a little more southeasterly as the high shifts east.
Temperatures will be warmest to the west of the mountains (mid
to upper 70s) and coolest near the coast (upper 60s to near 70).
With drier air in place than we have seen recently, nighttime
temperatures will cool into the 40s to low 50s most nights.

On Friday an upper level trough moving through Quebec send a cold
front toward our area. Ahead of it, warm/moist air will be sent
northward into our area. There will be a chance of showers as the
trough moves through Friday with the front making its way to the
coast by Saturday morning. Temperatures should be a few degrees
warmer behind the front Saturday due to less cloud cover and
better mixing behind the front... generally in the 70s.

A ridge briefly builds over the area on Sunday but low level winds
will still be off the water, so temperatures stay relatively cool
particularly in Maine. The next upper level trough crossing
through the Great Lakes will bring rain chances late Sunday into
Monday. GFS and ECMWF differ a bit on how to handle this system,
with the GFS developing a deeper and slower-moving upper level
wave and a more complex low pressure system while the ECMWF taking
a more progressive approach with a weaker low and shorter duration
of rainfall. Think the ECMWF probably has a little better handle
on this system at the moment as the initial wave in the GFS
tracking through the Northern Plains seems to be deepened too
strongly by convection in the model. The overall conclusion is
that there is a pretty decent chance for a wetting rain over all
of the area early next week sometime from late Sunday into
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions may temporarily give way to local
MVFR/IFR conditions in showers and possibly a thunderstorm late
this afternoon and early evening. Areas of fog may develop
overnight due to a moist boundary layer...especially on the
midcoast of Maine. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

Long Term...Expect VFR conditions Wednesday through Thursday with
the possibility of fog developing in the valleys at night. There
will be a chance of showers on Friday and the low level
southeasterly flow could transport some low clouds off the Gulf of
Maine and into eastern New Hampshire and western Maine at some
point with IFR conditions possible. Conditions improve to VFR
again behind a cold front on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Seas may reach 5 ft on the ocean waters overnight
tonight and into early Tuesday morning. However will hold off on
SCA as it is marginal and confidence is not high at this time.

Long Term...High pressure tracking through the Canadian Maritimes
will bring a light easterly to southeasterly wind flow to the Gulf
of Maine through the end of the week. With light winds expected,
seas will also likely remain below 5 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values are expected to drop to between 25 and 35 percent during
the afternoon hours on Tuesday along with some gusts around 20
mph. This may increase fire danger a bit but with recent rain and
greenup it won`t require any sort of headline.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Curtis
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...



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