Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 202207 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
607 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING THE CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE..
MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR ONGOING TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT DISCREPANCIES. SEABREEZE WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AND
SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED AS A LAST GASP...BUT THESE SHOULD DROP OFF
SHORTLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE RH VALUES
CONTINUE TO MIX OUT TO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT THANKFULLY FUELS ARE
MOIST AND WINDS ARE NOT THAT STRONG. THAT SAID SEVERAL BRUSH FIRES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING ALLOWING
FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME THICKER CIRRUS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF MID DECK IN THE
NORTH...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A BLEND OF THE MET AND
MAV TEMPS WAS USED TO DERIVE MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NICE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER AND A SWLY BREEZE
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 70 IN THE INTERIOR...BUT
REMAIN A GOOD BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO DEVELOPING ONSHORE
FLOW. CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A WARM FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY ON LONGWAVE PATTERN
BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE. HENCE...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION...AND RESULTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER...
DECLINES MARKEDLY AFTER DAY 5. A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. TUESDAY WILL
BE A MILD DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SHOWERS REACH WESTERN
SECTIONS BY AFTERNOON...AND THE COAST TOWARDS DUSK. THE FRONT
CLEARS THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE
LINGERING CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE
FLOW AND AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWS DOWN AND CLOSES OFF NEARBY.
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT THEN ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN
UPPER LOW THEN ARRIVES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE PM - WED AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

WED...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

TUE PM - THU...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 70...DEW POINTS IN THE 20S...AND SSWLY WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE SPREAD ON
MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH. ELSEWHERE...RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES





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