Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 070056
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
856 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A RETURN FLOW BEHIND
THE HIGH WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY AND IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR PARTY SUNNY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
855 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST MESONET DATA. ANOTEHR VERY QUIET NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING OFF COAST...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SUNNY SKIES AND A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN RESULTED IN A QUICK WARM
UP THIS MORNING WITH MANY SITES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S BY 10
AM. THEREAFTER WE HAVE ONLY WARMED A FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST
CASES INTO THE LOWER 80S. PORTLAND REPORTED A SEA BREEZE JUST
AFTER 10 AM SO THE WARM READINGS ALONG THE COAST MAY HAD ALREADY
PEAKED BY THAT TIME. OTHERWISE THE LITTLE MOISTURE THAT WAS
AVAILABLE CONTRIBUTED TO A CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE REGION.

EXPECTED CU TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTER
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND EAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT A WARM FRONT NEARS THE AREA FROM THE SW DRAWING
MOISTURE NORTH AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN SOMETIME AFTER
DAYBREAK IN NH AND MOVE INTO MAINE THEREAFTER. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE INCREASING BY
AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS NOT THAT GOOD BUT IS ENOUGH THAT WE MIGHT GET
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OTHER THAN
MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH MODERATE RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. A FEW
OF THESE MAY PULSE UP TO STRONGER STORMS FOR A FEW MINUTES AT A
TIME... BUT STILL THINKING SUB SEVERE.

MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION... BETWEEN A PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
HAS SPED UP FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND SHOW IT CLEARING THE COAST BY
12Z. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC AND BASED ON TERRAIN AND PATTERN
RECOGNITION BELIEVE THIS WILL BE CLOSER TO 15-17Z. WE WILL SEE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DISSAGREEMENT
AS TO HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THE FRONT WILL SETTLE BY LATE IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WHICH HAS RAMIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST DOWN THE
ROAD. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE PUSHING THE FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH AND ALLOWING DRY AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS...EURO AND ENSEMBLES ARE A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ANY CASE...THERE IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THIS FORECAST.

CYCLONIC COLD POOLS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES
FIRST THING IN THE MORNING FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BUILD UP OF CU
FIELDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY PATCHY FOG FORMING DURING THE COOL...MOIST OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME ADVECTION
FOG NEAR AUGUSTA AND PATCHY RADIATION FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
SCT MVFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING IN
SHRA AND TSRA.

LONG TERM...LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE IMPROVING TO VFR AS THE FRONT
MOVES OFF THE COASTLINE. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY BARELY
REACH 5 FT AND TOUCH 20 KTS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
ENTERS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
LINGERING SWELLS WILL BE REACHING THE COAST DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



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