Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 012052
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
252 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front has moved through Southeast Texas and is currently
along the coast and will continue eastward this evening and
tonight. High pressure will build in from the north and keep
breezy conditions along the coast and offshore tonight while
inland areas should see winds decrease to lighter levels. With
light winds and surface ridge building should see some low
temperatures drop into the 40s for most of the area. Locations
right along the coastline could remain around 50 degrees.

Pleasant weather is in store for Thursday and Friday with a light
northeast wind Thursday gradually shifting to the southeast by
Friday afternoon. Highs should be mainly in the 60s both days with
partly cloudy skies.

An overrunning pattern will set up beginning Saturday with more
moist area pushing up over the region. This will increase rain
chances Saturday and especially Saturday night. A relatively
vigorous shortwave approaching Sunday will help to continue the
rain chances. Thunderstorms will also become possible on Sunday,
though CAPE should be somewhat limited. Monday features slightly
better CAPE, but strongest shortwave will have moved off to the
east. With additional weak shortwaves expected across the region
will keep a slight chance of showers and storms in the area
through Monday. Seasonal temperatures will prevail.

Significant model differences exist mid-week with GFS featuring a
deep trough over the central part of the country. ECMWF and
Canadian models have a trough...but much less amplified over the
upper Midwest. GFS blasts a strong cold front through East Texas
on Tuesday while the Canadian backs a front in later and ECMWF
does not really bring a surface boundary through at all. Will
stick with a blended solution at this time with such stark
differences in guidance options.



&&

.MARINE...
Expect strong winds to develop in the wake of a cold front this
afternoon/evening. Will maintain small craft advisory through the
night, may need to extend a few more hours in time on Thursday,
but will hold off until the picture becomes a bit more clear.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy conditions will develop again Thursday and Friday, but
mainly along the coast. Low RH levels also develop, but this will
be especially farther inland. At this time, conditions do not
appear to overlap to warrant any red flag warnings, but will
continue to monitor this closely.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      44  67  42  70  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)              48  69  45  70  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            56  66  54  67  60 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 6 PM CST this evening
     through Thursday morning for the following zones: Galveston
     Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...99
Aviation/Marine...99



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