Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 160131
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
831 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY COMPLEX SURFACE MAP THIS EVENING. A 7 PM ANALYSIS SHOWED A
WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR IAH UNTO SW LA...A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
PSN TO CLL TO GYB...AND A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF
WATERS ABOUT 20 NM OFF THE COAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ALSO
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE PAN HANDLE.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT HAVE DISSIPATED AS OF 830
PM. DO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WORK THEIR WAY ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE AS WELL GIVEN THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION...

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE GULF REFLECTS TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE LOWER
TX COAST WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST.
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCXO WHERE SOME
LIMITED VSBY MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. LEANED MORE ON NAM/WRF/HRRR TO GET
TIMING OF VCSH AND VCTS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTH OF KSGR/KHOU IN THE MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY DEVELOP
FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR AT 3 PM HAS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE COAST (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE) MAKING GRADUAL WESTWARD
PROGRESS...AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS (ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE) MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS OFF THE GULF (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO >2 INCHES) AND WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAJA AREA HURRICANE ODILE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THINK ALMOST EVERYONE WILL SEE
SOME RAIN AT LEAST ONCE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ANY TRAINING THAT
DEVELOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY LEAD TO SOME 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND (BETTER CHANCES
CENTRAL AND COAST COUNTIES AND LOWER CHANCES UP NORTH). THERE ARE STILL
TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK`S COLD FRONT.
OUR AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POTENTIALLY
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOME TIME DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42

MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCEC CRITERIA AND
START TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW THANKS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN STRONGER STORMS. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3K BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW MORNING GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THANKS TO PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN THE
CIRRUS OVERHEAD HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. TOMORROW RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. FOR OUR AREA THE WAVE WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF RAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES AND K
INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF RAIN TO TAF SITES KIAH AND SOUTHWARDS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  87  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  87  75 /  20  50  30  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  80 /  30  60  40  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



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