Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 201739
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1239 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period across SE
Texas. Showers expected along the coastal TAF sites, moving slightly
inland but south of I-10 through the early evening hours tonight
associated with the seabreeze. Winds should remain light out of
the SW/W between 3-7 kts through the afternoon, becoming weak and
variable into the evening hours. Similar to today, expect early
morning showers pushing inland at the coastal TAF sites tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The upper level high pressure ridge has drifted a bit more
southward this morning. Still have a 500 mb trough into the
coastal areas east of Freeport; however, the ridge was over these
locations at 850 mb and 700 mb. There was also still a weak
trough at the surface. The 12Z morning soundings do show potential
after the convective temperature is reached. PW/s ranged from 2.1
at the coast to 1.5 in the northern counties. By mid to late
afternoon the model forecast soundings show the potential for some
gusty winds in any strong storms that develop as an inverted V
profile forms below 850 mb.

The ridge has helped to suppress showers and storms for almost
the entire area at mid morning. However, do expect the sea breeze
and afternoon heating to help initiate isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms during the midday to early afternoon
period. Should also see some mixing to help dry out the surface
dewpoints a bit, especially in the northwestern and western set of
counties. This should help ease the heat index a bit this
afternoon. Update includes some tweaks to the rain chances,
temperatures, and dewpoints.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      98  76  98  76  96 /  10  10  10  10  20
Houston (IAH)              97  78  95  78  93 /  10  10  20  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            90  81  90  82  89 /  20  20  20  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...08


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