Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KHGX 062029
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
329 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
ONSHORE WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS SKIRTING THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE NAM AND SREF ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SATURDAY OVER THE W/SW
ZONES BUT NOT SURE LOW LEVEL MSTR WILL BE SUFFICIENT. CIRRUS
SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE PREVALENT ON SATURDAY AND HAVE TRENDED
SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN
TO TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE.
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER ON SUN/MON AND BREEZY CONDS
EXPECTED AREAWIDE BOTH DAYS. CLOUDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MSTR DEEPENS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BUILDING CAP AND VERY
DRY AIR AT 800 MB. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP MAX
TEMPS IN LOWER/MID 80S. TEMPS WARM A BIT ON MONDAY AND PW VALUES
ALSO MOVE UPWARD. PW VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.60-1.70
INCHES. CAPPING WEAKENS OVER THE NORTH AND WEAKENS TO A LESSER
EXTENT FURTHER SOUTH WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 AND LI`S
BETWEEN -6 TO -8. A WEAK S/WV WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND THE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC DRY LINE SHOULD HELP TO
INITIATE SHRA/TSRA MONDAY AFTN. ITS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THE
CONVECTION WILL BUILD BUT HAVE TAPERED HIGHER POPS NORTH WITH
LOWER POPS SOUTH AND TOWARD THE COAST. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NORTH
LATE MON AFTN/EVENING.

850 TEMPS WARM TUE/WED AND PW VALUES DROP BACK TO AROUND 1.40
INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 90 DEGREES. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUES/WED BUT WITH THE LOWER MSTR LEVELS AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS...FEEL COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. 500 HEIGHTS
DROP A BIT ON THU/FRI SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD TREND A TOUCH COOLER. PW
VALUES PERK BACK UP TO AROUND 1.60 INCHES ON THURSDAY SO WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. 43

&&

MARINE...
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLIES OVER SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STATION ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND...WITH LOWERING WESTERN PLAINS PRESSURES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL LOW...ONSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH
SUNDAY. SOUTHERLIES WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY...SUBSIDING A BIT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AT CAUTION LEVELS...ALTHOUGH FAR OFFSHORE WINDS
MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVEL MAGNITUDES DURING THE OVERNIGHT EARLY
MONDAY MORNING HOURS. A LONG DURATION SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DRAW
UP A LONGER PERIOD SWELL FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK. EARLY WEEK
AVERAGE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FEET NEARSHORE...6 TO 8
FEET OFFSHORE WITH ABOUT A 7 TO 8 SECOND PERIOD.

THIS PROLONGED ONSHORE FETCH WILL LIKELY PUSH WATER LEVELS UP TO
BETWEEN 3.5 TO 4.5 FEET ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER TO INUNDATE THE LOWEST LEVEL BEACH
ROADS...OR THOSE AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO EXPERIENCE WASHOVER ONCE
WATER LEVELS ACHIEVE 3.5 FEET. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      59  84  64  83  69 /   0   0  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  85  65  83  71 /   0   0   0  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  78  72  80  75 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.