Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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997
FXUS64 KHGX 141204
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
604 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.AVIATION...
PERIODIC IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL PLAGUE MANY TERMINALS IN THE
COMING HOURS...GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR OR SCATTERING OUT TO VFR
THROUGH LATE MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW STRATUS
DECKS AND PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG. AFTERNOON VFR TO HIGH END
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS...ONCE SUN SETS...MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD RE-FORM AND LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATTER ON MONDAY WILL WEAKEN ONCE MODERATE DOWNSTREAM ONSHORE
WINDS AND SHOULD ALLOW MVFR DECKS...POSSIBLY IFR...DECKS TO HOLD
ON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND AND AROUND
60 AT THE COAST. A LITTLE BIT OF FOG IS BEING REPORTED ACROSS PARTS
OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FOUND AREAWIDE...
GENERALLY IN A 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME VERY WEAK
ECHOES IN OUR NORTHERN GULF WATERS...BUT COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH
LESS THAN SOME MODELS HAVE BEEN PREDICTING. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING
TODAY AND THE CURRENT ECHOES ON RADAR...THINK IT IS BEST TO KEEP 20%
POPS IN TODAY`S FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S. LOW RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER NUMBERS ACROSS PARTS OF OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS AND BETTER LIFT
WILL BE FOUND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON MONDAY. THE ENTIRE AREA IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A DRY
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OUR NEXT BEST
RAIN CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  42

MARINE...
THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BECOME TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SCEC LEVEL WINDS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. NEAR 15 KNOT WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY...GENERALLY OVER 3 TO
4 FOOT SEAS. NEARSHORE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNDER SCEC WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER SEA HEIGHTS AT OR UNDER 3 FEET. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STORMS MONDAY AHEAD OF A LATE MONDAY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL VEER WINDS
AROUND TO OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING...BACK ONSHORE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...STRENGTHENING TO CAUTION LEVELS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE AND A PLAINS
TROUGHING TIGHTENS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  57  74  50  76 /  20  20  20   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  59  75  52  76 /  20  20  30   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            72  61  71  56  70 /  20  20  30  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



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