Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 260458
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1158 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.AVIATION...
Ceilings are at (or forecast) to lower into MVFR cats through the
reminder of the overnight hours. As the region falls downstream
of an approaching cold front...stout south winds will persist
through sunrise per a tight onshore pressure gradient. An
overnight early Wednesday morning passing low level jet will cause
turbulent mid- level flying conditions. Lower level winds should
be high enough to preclude any ~06Z to 12Z lower 2k ft mention of
wind shear. Either periodic IFR or prevailing MVFR stratus decks
to persist through mid to late morning. Veering southwesterly
winds should aid in scattering the late Wednesday AM/early PM deck
out with the front timed to pass across CLL around 3 or 4 PM
LT...the city between 5 and 6 PM...and be off the coast around 9
or 10 PM tomorrow evening. Downstream mid-level capping will
exclude precipitation from many sites but will throw in an early
afternoon VCTS for CLL and UTS with the front just upstream from
them. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies across Southeast Texas tonight and a
moderate onshore flow will help to keep overnight low temperatures
from falling below 70 degrees. Normally, springtime overnight low
temperatures stay below 70 degrees until May 28th for College
Station, May 24th for the City of Houston, May 19th for Houston
Hobby and May 5th for Galveston.

Current grids have things covered this evening, and do not plan
on making any major changes on the evening update.  42

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Moderate onshore flow and above-normal temperatures will continue
into tomorrow before the arrival of a cold front tomorrow
afternoon/evening. A few showers may be possible ahead of the
front beginning as early as tomorrow morning with thunderstorms
potentially mixed in during the afternoon. Right now it looks
like there may be a cap in place overhead that limits the
thunderstorm potential, but chances for breaking the cap will be
best across the Piney Woods region tomorrow afternoon. The most
noticeable difference behind the front will come in the form of
low temperatures on Thursday morning, with only a slight downtick
(mid 80s) expected for highs on Thursday.

Any relief from Wednesday`s front will be short-lived as highs
will climb to near 90 on Friday with heat indices reaching into the
mid 90s. The next source of relief from the heat will come this
weekend as a much more substantial cold front approaches from the
west Saturday/Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms are also
expected with this front, with potentially some locally heavy
rainfall as PWs increase to near 2.0". Much cooler and drier
conditions are expected in the wake of this second front Sunday
into the beginning of next week. 11

MARINE...
Moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds will persist through
Wednesday morning. Have expanded the advisory flags into the bays
overnight and into mid morning. Tide levels may approach the Highway
87/124 intersection a few hours before/after the 5am high tide, but
am not expecting any other issues for the rest of the day.

The winds will briefly decrease Wednesday afternoon as a cold front
nears the coast. The front should cross the coastal waters between
6-10 PM Wednesday evening. Might need a short duration advisory behind
the front as winds increase to around 20kt Wednesday night.

Onshore winds resume on Thursday as high pressure moves off to the
east. Winds/seas increase to near advisory criteria once again this
weekend. Will need to keep an eye on elevated water levels and risk
of rip currents going into the weekend. The next front is penciled
in for Sunday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      72  87  52  84  67 /  10  20  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)              74  88  56  84  70 /  10  30  10   0  10
Galveston (GLS)            76  83  65  78  74 /  10  20  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters
     from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31


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