Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 071131
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
431 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND OVER THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR 37N/130W HAS PROVIDED A COOLER
AND DRIER ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE START OF THIS WEEK. MONDAY
CONVECTION WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SIERRA CREST AND MANY
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WERE BELOW CLIMO. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK...SWINGING IT INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY...LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
BY FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC COOLING AND CONTINUED
INFUSION OF OCEAN COOLED AIR WILL LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT AFTER
SATURDAY BUT GENERALLY MAINTAIN SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER THE
WEST COAST FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED BROUGHT IN BY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
RECENT DAYS HAS BEEN SHUNTED EASTWARD WITH THE THE INCOMING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP CONVECTION CHANCES LIMITED TO THE
SIERRA AGAIN TODAY. AS THE LOW NEARS US WEDNESDAY AND TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE...BUT WITH
LITTLE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...INCLUDING ALONG THE COASTAL
RANGE. EXCEPT FOR JUST A FEW POSSIBLE STORMS NEAR THE SIERRA
CREST...THE FORECAST AFTER THURSDAY IS DRY ACROSS OUR AREA BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND 06Z WED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-07      111:1905     84:1891     76:2014     53:1903
KFAT 07-08      115:1905     84:1983     81:1896     51:1891
KFAT 07-09      113:1905     78:1936     81:2008     55:1983

KBFL 07-07      114:1905     85:1983     81:1968     46:1903
KBFL 07-08      114:1905     85:1983     79:1907     50:1899
KBFL 07-09      113:1905     83:1980     84:2008     52:1923
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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