Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 241124
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
413 AM PDT WED AUG 24 2016
Other than the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm or two near
the Sierra crest this afternoon into this evening, dry weather will
be the rule across the central California interior today and for the
next several days. Temperatures will run slightly warmer than normal
through Thursday before returning to seasonable levels Friday through
.DISCUSSION...Skies are clear throughout the central California
interior this morning, however infrared satellite imagery still
depicts the hot spots where the Cedar, Chimney and Soberanes
wildfires are still burning. Smoke from these fires will continue
to affect the air quality across parts of central California for
at least another 24 hours. The HRRR smoke dispersion model
forecasts the highest concentration of smoke particulates to
remain suspended over the southern San Joaquin Valley through
tonight. A northwest to north flow aloft will bring this smoke
into the Kern County mountains, too. Smoke will most likely
linger in the foothills and higher elevations of Tulare County
into at least Thursday morning. Otherwise, a ridge of high
pressure centered off the southern California coast will bring us
another day of above normal temperatures.
An upper level trough currently over the northern Rockies will
drop southward tonight and end up over the Great Basin Thursday.
The models bring a short wave impulse into central California
tonight ahead of this trough. A 300 MB jet max associated with
this feature could strengthen northwest winds aloft over the cwa
this evening, especially through and below the mountain passes
in Kern County. Additionally, this trough will sweep away what
residual mid level moisture has lingered over the high Sierra
the past few days. A couple of the high resolution models suggest
that there will still be just enough moisture and lift present
to produce an isolated thunderstorm or two along the Sierra
crest this afternoon. A slightly cooler, drier and more stable
air mass will settle into the central California interior behind
the upper level trough Thursday and remain in place through the
weekend. Temperatures during this period will average pretty
close to normal.
A minor warming trend is slated for early next week as the high
pressure ridge off the southern California coast builds back
over central California. This ridge will remain in control through
at least Tuesday and bring a continuation of dry weather along
with slightly warmer than normal temperatures. Next Wednesday
could trend cooler again or remain quite warm depending on what
model you look at. The GFS keeps a 590+ DM ridge over central
California next Wednesday while the ECM aggressively digs a trough
southward into California. We are leaning toward the warmer GFS
solution at this time on day 7. Whatever the case, the ensembles
forecast this trough to eventually win out by the latter part of
next week with increased onshore flow and the return of cooler
Smoke from wildfires will reduce visibilities to MVFR in some areas.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail over the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
please see SFOAQAHNX
!!!Forecaster, please DELETE the following AFTER inferring AQA counties
ISSUED: 08/23/2016 15:30
EXPIRES: 08/24/2016 16:00
The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District is continuing an Air Quality Alert due to smoke impacts from the Cedar and Tule wildfires in Tulare and the Valley Portion of Kern Counties.
This Air Quality Alert is in effect until Wednesday afternoon August 24.
The Air Quality Alert has expired for San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, Madera, Fresno, and Kings Counties.
Exposure to particle pollution can cause serious health problems, aggravate lung disease, cause asthma attacks and acute bronchitis, and increase risk of respiratory infections.
Residents are advised to use caution as conditions warrant. People with heart or lung diseases should follow their doctors advice for dealing with episodes of unhealthy air quality.
Additionally, older adults and children should avoid prolonged exposure, strenuous activities or heavy exertion, as conditions dictate.
For additional information, call your local San Joaquin Valley Air District office.
Modesto 209-557-6400, Fresno 559-230-6000, Bakersfield 661-381-1809
!!!END AQA DELETE!!!
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.