Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 252100
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
COOLING TREND AND STRONG WINDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVED OVER CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA AND RAIN
TO MAINLY MERCED AND FRESNO COUNTIES. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF MERCED COUNTY AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WERE PRESENT...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND
20 MPH COMMON THROUGH THE VALLEY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
WEST TO NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND
30 MPH ACROSS THE VALLEY. AS FORECAST...THE LINE OF RAIN MOVING
INTO MERCED COUNTY DISSIPATED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT NOT
BEFORE DROPPING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. SAN LUIS DAM REPORTED
0.02" WHILE GUSTINE IN MERCED COUNTY AND THE PANOCHE ROAD RAWS IN
FRESNO COUNTY EACH PICKED UP 0.01"

THIS RAIN IS FORECAST TO BE SPOTTY AT BEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH MUCH OF THE FOCUS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THE HRRR AND HIGH RES ARW AND WELL
AS HIGH RES NMM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE VALLEY COULD SEE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 5 PM PDT...WHILE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE AREA...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS IN KERN COUNTY. THE HIGH
RES MODELS PICK UP ON THIS WELL...INDICATING A FEW HUNDREDTH OF
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

AFTER SUNDAY MORNING...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION...AIDING IN THE COOLING TREND OVER THE
REGION. SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S...WHILE ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ANOTHER FEW DEGREES TO THE LOW 70S. MONDAY`S TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER.

OTHERWISE...A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
80S.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST IS INDICATING ANOTHER SHOT OF
RAIN FOR THE AREA BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY WITH THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST IS STILL VERY LOW...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND FOR FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA CREST AT TIMES THRU 06Z SUNDAY. ALSO...LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA THRU 06Z. AREAS OF
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
VALLEY FACING SLOPES FROM 06Z THRU 18Z SUN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-25       91:1966     61:1998     62:1982     36:1971
KFAT 10-26       89:2003     57:2004     58:1927     35:1939
KFAT 10-27       89:2003     58:1896     61:1987     35:1970

KBFL 10-25       94:1917     62:1939     66:1982     35:1899
KBFL 10-26       92:2003     58:1996     61:1959     35:1939
KBFL 10-27       99:1906     56:2004     64:1987     34:1919
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...MOLINA

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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