Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 281007
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
307 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
THROUGH FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY WILL TREND WARMER AGAIN
AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE RATHER QUIET DURING
THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER CA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. MAXIMUM
TEMPS WILL FLIRT WITH THE CENTURY MARK IN MANY SJ VLY AND
DESERT LOCATIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN A BIT FASTER AND
FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT IS SLATED
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
IS ABOUT 24 HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT
ITSELF WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE MORE THAN SOME ALTOCUMULUS
AND CIRRUS. OTHERWISE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT THIS WEEKEND WITH MINOR SYNOPTIC
COOLING. A SHALLOW INTRUSION OF MARINE AIR IS LIKELY IN THE SJ VLY
THIS WEEKEND BUT IT WILL NOT BE VERY NOTICEABLE UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN
AFTERNOON TEMPS VALLEYWIDE WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 90S.
OCEAN COOLED AIR WILL BEGIN FLOWING THROUGH THE SAC DELTA SATURDAY
AND WILL PROBABLY BLEED INTO THE SJ VLY NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE SJ VLY STAYS
RELATIVELY HOT.

THE COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AND BY LABOR DAY
ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER CA. THE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO
REMAIN OVER CA THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BRING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE PAC NW DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO THE
REESTABLISHMENT OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND A MODEST COOLING TREND
SEEMS LIKELY AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR ON DAYS 6 AND 7.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY AUGUST 28 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES
AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-28      108:1924     78:1953     77:1894     52:1907
KFAT 08-29      109:1915     79:2010     76:1915     52:1895
KFAT 08-30      109:1988     80:1957     81:2007     49:1966

KBFL 08-28      109:1944     82:1953     78:1972     48:1903
KBFL 08-29      109:1915     79:1953     78:1931     45:1903
KBFL 08-30      108:1988     80:1957     80:2007     45:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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