Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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252
FXUS66 KHNX 012120
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
220 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
TODAY...THEN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING SHRA AND TSRA THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SIERRA...TEHACHAPI AND DIABLO RANGE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY ACROSS THE SJV...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND WEAK NE
FLOW ARE KEEPING DESERT TEMPS DOWN TODAY.

MODELS ARE BUILDING IN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FORECAST GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO GET MORE IN LINE WITH TIMING
AND TRACK OF A DIGGING CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE CENTER DROPPING OUT OF
THE GULF OF AK AND MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST BEFORE MOVING
INLAND ACROSS SOCAL FRIDAY EVENING. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE
IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY AS STRONG PVA ALONG THE EAST SIDE
OF THE LOW WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT ACROSS THE CWA FOR SHRA AND
TSRA...WHICH OF A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE LOW MOVES INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY WILL TRIGGER SHRA
AND TSRA FRIDAY. THE CLOSED LOW IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS AN
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE SET UP AND THE UPPER LOW SETS UP
SHOP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND IT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE SIERRA...WITH EVEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SJV ON SATURDAY. THINGS DO SETTLE DOWN A
BIT ON SUNDAY AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY IS WELL EAST OF THE
CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA
IN THE SIERRA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z MONDAY DUE
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA
NEVADA...AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS.
LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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