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000
FXUS64 KHUN 010658
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
158 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low over srn IN is slowly starting to drift N/NE. Attm the
cloud cover associated with the upper low is not as widespread over
the TN valley as last night. Based on stlt trends most of the cloud
cover should be north of TN river for the rest of tonight and today.
Otherwise will go ahead and keep patchy fog wording for this mrng
based on current temp/dewpt depression.

The upper low is progged to continue to move NE thru the weekend as
an upper ridge builds eastward from the midwest. This scenario will
continue the dry conditions over the CWA as well as a slight warming
trend. Today highs will mainly be in the upper 70s but by Sunday and
into next week aftn highs will be in the low/mid 80s with mrng lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Attm the only chc of shra/tsra will be on Thursday as an upper trof
and sfc cdfnt approaches the TN valley from the west and hurricane
Matthew moves somewhere along the east coast. GFS is still the drier
model than the ECMWF with the chc pcpn on Thursday. Any way you cut
it, the chc of pcpn on Thursday looks fairly slim since the TN
valley should be on the west/dry side of Matthew.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1202 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016)
For 06Z TAFs: The SKC/BKN deck of clouds that has lingered over the
terminals tonight is breaking up leaving only a few clouds AOA
8,000ft. There is some uncertainty tonight about the potential for
fog. The guidance that picked up on the fog last night is showing
most of the fog tonight remaining in TN. However, light winds and
clear skies and temps expected to fall to the dewpoint values should
allow for some fog development for much of northern AL. Do not
believe dense fog conditions like we saw yesterday will develop
tonight. Opted for a brief period between 10-13Z this morning for 4SM
BR at both terminals. Will watch trends to our north closely and make
adjustments as needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the
remainder of the TAF period.

Stumpf

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville    79  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Shoals        80  57  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Vinemont      78  54  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Fayetteville  77  52  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albertville   78  56  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Payne    78  53  81  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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