National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KHUN 240457 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1157 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 814 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
AFTER AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON, A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. THE PREFRONTAL TROF
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE SHIFTED SOUTH
OF THE CWFA, WITH THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT NOW IN THE VICINITY OF
NASHVILLE. SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD THIS EVENING
PINPOINTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE
TN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY ORIENTED NE TO SW,
EXTENDING FROM JAMESTOWN TN SWWRD TO COLUMBIA TN, MOVING SLOWLY E/SE.
BOTH THE SREF AND HRRR SHOWED THIS DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE TWO HAVE VERY
DIFFERENT OUTCOMES BY DAYBREAK.

WHILE THE SREF CONTINUES TO ADVECT THIS CONVECTION SEWRD INTO THE
CWFA BY SUNRISE, THE HRRR CONTINUES WITH A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT IN
THE MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY, COMPLETELY MISSING MOST OF OUR AREA
ALTOGETHER. THIS IS MAKING FOR A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST UPDATE
THIS EVENING REGARDING THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY.

FOR NOW, WILL SIDE WITH THE SREF AND HAVE MADE UPDATES TO THE PUBLIC
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. DUE TO THE RAINFALL/ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FROM
EARLIER TODAY, HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTING TO FOLLOW IN
LINE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INCLUDED MAKING 50-POPS AREAWIDE, AND TWEAKING
THE QPF AS WELL. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

WILL RESEND ALL OTHER UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE, WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTH SAGS SOUTHWARD, MORE ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA WILL ARRIVE AROUND
DAYBREAK, TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.
ASIDE FROM DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS FROM TSTORM ACTIVITY (IFR
CONDS POSSIBLE), VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FROM MIDDAY THRU THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office