Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 030802
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
302 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED UPPER LOW HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD...WITH
THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER NORTHWEST GEORGIA. CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO
STREAM SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...WITH
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE TN RIVER OBSERVING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
THIS HAS IMPEDED THE RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH
TEMPS STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. NOT EXPECTING MUCH BREAK IN THE
CLOUD COVER BEFORE SUNRISE...SO TEMPERATURES MAY NOT COOL MUCH FROM
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. THIS COULD HELP WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE
LOWERED DEWPOINTS AND INCREASED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
HOWEVER...OUTSIDE OF CLOUDY AREAS...LOWERED VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY
DUE TO THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE.

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE E/SE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
WEST. NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PRECIP FORECAST...AND
EXPECTING THE GREATER CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ALONG THE
EASTERN COAST. N/NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH BY SUNDAY.
SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
MONDAY...THOUGH STILL ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH THE HOTTEST DAY EXPECTED TO BE ON
FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW RAIN CHANCES.

BEYOND MONDAY...DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO DEVELOP WITH FORECAST
SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE MODELS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
STRENGTHENS. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND TRAIL S/SW THROUGH THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...BEFORE IT STALLS...WITH ANOTHER
IMPULSE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE...THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH IT STALLING TO THE SOUTH.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEKEND...BRINGING A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...WITH EITHER SOLUTION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WETTER
PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK...AND HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1235 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
STRATUS THAT AFFECTED MUCH OF THE AREA TUE HAS FADED THIS EVENING...
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW MIST/FOG TO FORM BEFORE
DAYBREAK WED. HAVE KEPT LOWER MVFR TO IFR VIS REDUCTIONS IN THE
TAF...BUT HAVE RAISED CIGS ABOVE IFR THRESHOLD. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WED AM. A WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER EASTERN TN WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD. ITS PROXIMITY WILL KEEP LOWER
END CHANCES OF CONVECTION MAINLY NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER WED AFTERNOON.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    83  63  83  64 /  20  10  20  10
SHOALS        82  62  84  64 /  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      80  62  83  64 /  20  10  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  79  61  81  61 /  20  20  30  10
ALBERTVILLE   81  62  83  62 /  30  20  30  10
FORT PAYNE    80  62  81  63 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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