Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 250215 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
915 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Minor tweaks to night-time lows and patchy fog for the late night.


A similar situation to the past few nights with lingering showers
and thunderstorms over and near this portion of the Tennessee Valley.
The nearest "strongest" shower/storm over the forecast area was
fading over western Jackson county. Motion of this activity is to the
WNW around 5 mph. Strong upper ridging in place over the the southern
Rockies and Desert Southwest, along with a weak upper low forming
over Florida continued a general northerly upper flow pattern over
the region.

Earlier today, another very warm to hot day was realized for much of
the Tennessee Valley. The warmest temperature noted so far over the
region was a 98F at the Muscle Shoals Airport --- who were then
cooled by 1.18 inches of rain from thunderstorm activity. With
residual moisture from this rainfall and last night`s rain, light
winds and mostly clear skies late tonight will be favorable for the
formation of patchy fog. Forecast lows from the day shift look fine,
only made a few 1 degree or so changes here and there. An update for
the evening has been sent. After shower activity completely ceases,
will send out another update for the overnight.



(Issued 653 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016)
For 00Z TAFs: A few showers/storms lingering late this afternoon may
impact at least vicinity of KHSV/KMSL TAF sites over the next few
hours. SHRA have developed INVOF KHSV during the last hour. None of
these have produced ltg as of 2330Z (per North Alabama LMA). However,
another tstm has developed upstream from KHSV in eastern Morgan
County and could approach vicinity of KHSV by 01Z. A VCSH was used
to address this activity since confidence is low in any eventual
direct impact at KHSV. An area of shra/tsra were also located to the
SE/upstream of KMSL. Best timing suggests this activity could reach
vicinity of KMSL around 02-03Z. Confidence is also low for impacts at
KMSL just yet, so utilized VCSH in KMSL TAF. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are likely to prevail for the TAF period. Scattered
convection expected again tomorrow especially after 18Z.



(Issued 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016)
Afternoon convection once again developing across parts of the area
in response to latent heating, as temp trends climb into the lower
to perhaps mid 90s. Heat indices for the most part are right around
100F, although these will likely climb a couple of more degrees in
locations which do not receive any rainfall this afternoon. Activity
is mainly low topped/water loaded convection, with very little in
the way of lightning thus far. This will likely change though over
the next few hrs as weakly sheared updrafts gain a little more
momentum. This can certainly translate into a few strong tstms
capable of gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rainfall, before
overall activity diminishes early this evening with the loss of max
heating. Overnight lows will again fall into the lower/mid 70s for
most areas under partly cloudy/mostly clr skies.

The latest model suites are still hinting at a weak frontal boundary
out of the OH Valley/Midwest states dropping into the region during
the day Mon, but likely stalling just n of the local area. What this
means is another unseasonably hot/humid day Mon and again Tue, as
Gulf moisture pools s of the boundary and temps climb well into the
lower/mid 90s during the afternoon periods. A few areas, mainly over
nw AL, may approach the 105F heat index mark during max heating. But
this is not xpcted to be for a large area nor for a long period of
time. With a slight increase in vertical shear, this may also result
in a few more strong tstms with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall
the main hazards.

The latter half of the global model spreads are still showing the
area under a general weakness aloft by mid week, with an upper ridge
axis located w and e over the Desert SW and the ern Gulf region.
This looks to result in perhaps a few more showers/tstms during the
day, with max temps trending a little closer to normal values/or
right around 90F thx to an overall increase in rain/cloud cover.
Most of the convection still looks to wane in the evening hrs, with
lows more in the lower 70s for most locations into next weekend.



.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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