379
FXUS64 KHUN 151104
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
604 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Nighttime microphysics RGB satellite imagery shows a little bit of
fog has developed in the Paint Rock Valley, but not nearly as much
 as yesterday. High pressure remains anchored across the Southeast
today with an inverted trough off to our east stretched through the
Carolinas, GA, and down into FL. It will feel like a rinse and repeat
of yesterday with partly cloudy skies and a low chance (10-20%) of
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will have
the potential to produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Greater
coverage of convection will be found closer to the inverted trough
axis.

Highs will be near normal in the lower 90s. There will be a tad more
moisture in place that will push heat index values to 99-104 degrees
in most locations, remaining below Heat Advisory criteria though.
Regardless, heat safety remains important today and through the rest
of the week. Stay hydrated, and never leave people or pets in
vehicles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1017 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Any convection that does develop on Tuesday will quickly wane with
the loss of heating and expect another warm/muggy night with lows
in the low to mid 70s. With dewpoints continuing to trend ever so
slightly upward, heat will begin to become more of a concern
Wednesday and Thursday as highs are forecast to reach the low to
mid 90s -- with heat index values progged to reach at least the
100-105 degree range (with some locally higher values above 105
degrees noted across portions of northwest and north central
Alabama). Combined with lows remaining in the mid to potentially
upper 70s at night, this may create some elevated heat concerns
and an Advisory may need to be considered in future updates. One
aspect of the forecast that could temper our highs a little lower
will be cloud cover and PoPs as the aforementioned trough axis
from the low over the Gulf gradually shifts to the west. Low to
medium (30-50%) chances of showers and storms will return to the
forecast each day favoring the afternoon and evening hours. A few
storms could become locally strong each day, with gusty winds and
heavy downpours again being the main threats.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 1017 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Our attention in the extended will focus on the progress of Invest
93L that will be moving westward over the northern Gulf during the
middle of this week. Some guidance indicates this system may
develop tropical characteristics before it veers into the LA/MS/AL
coastline during a Thursday night to Friday timeframe. All this
would mean for the Tennessee Valley will be the potential for a
gradual increase in PoPs Friday and potentially into the upcoming
weekend. How widespread this activity will be will depend on the
eventual track of this system -- but long range ensembles are
honing on at least medium chances for showers and thunderstorms.
This would especially be true if this feature begins to interact
with a weak frontal boundary attempting to push southeast from the
Ohio/Mid-Mississippi Valley. Given the deep tropical moisture
that will be present across the Deep South, locally heavy rainfall
and potentially flooding would be the primary concerns. Thus, the
track of this system and how it evolves is something we`ll need
to watch in the coming days. Given the added cloud cover and
potentially higher rain chances, heat impacts don`t appear to be
as high during this late week timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Patchy fog will continue to reduce visibilities into MVFR at KMSL
until ~14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period at KHSV and KMSL. A few thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon, however coverage will be isolated, so did not include
it in this TAF issuance.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ008>010.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TNZ097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...JMS