Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 021421
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1021 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWING A NICE END
TO THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BRING TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM SUNDAY...I HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT
ACROSS ALL AREAS VIA LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. EVEN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US LATER HOVERING AROUND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS QUITE A WAYS OFF. THIS WILL BE THE CHALLENGE
FOR THE NEAR TERM FOR LATER PACKAGES AS TO WHAT EXTENT THIS SYSTEM
BRINGS RAIN TO THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY MONDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY
DISSIPATE OVERHEAD MONDAY THANKS TO RIDGING SLOWLY BULGING OUT OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LEADS TO A MORE TYPICAL MID-LEVEL PATTERN
FOR AUGUST WITH VERY WEAK BAROCLINIC GRADIENTS...ERODING THE
BOUNDARY COMPLETELY.

BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH...ENOUGH FORCING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
FRONT AND AN AFTN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE PWATS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER SE OF THE
FRONT...AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND ENHANCING PRECIP ALONG
THE CAPE FEAR COAST. WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH THIS
FEATURE...HAVE SEEN A FEW WAVES ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THUS THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN ONE MORE THIS PERIOD.
HAVE BUMPED POP TO LOW-LIKELY FROM ABOUT HOLDEN BEACH TO CAROLINA
BEACH AND SE...WITH HIGH CHC JUST INLAND FROM THERE. THERE WILL
BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT HOWEVER...AND THE BEST CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN LURKING JUST OFFSHORE.

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD AGAIN BE TOO DRY AS A VERY SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT
FOR THE I-95 COUNTIES. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ABOUT 90 AT THE COAST...RISING
TO AROUND 97 IN THE WARMEST INLAND ZONES. MINS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO ACROSS THE AREA...72 WELL INLAND TO AS WARM AS 78 ON THE
BEACHES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO DAYS...BUT ALSO HOTTER THANKS
TO HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AS THE RIDGE DISPLACES THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20C...AND PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5
INCHES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 6-HR SREF PROBS
FOR 0.01 INCHES DEPICT A SMALL AREA OF 40-50% ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS WELL BELOW THE PERSONAL THRESHOLDS OF 80%+ FOR
THIS PARAMETER FOR PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND WILL KEEP POP SILENT ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
WARM TUESDAY...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...UPR 90S IN THE WARM SPOTS...WITH LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID AND UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HOT WEATHER ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE
MID- ATLANTIC. THICKNESSES LOCALLY DO NOT GET EXCEEDINGLY
ROBUST...BUT WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...AND COMBINE WITH WARM 850MB
TEMPS TO KEEP HIGHS AND LOWS LIKELY 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WED
THU AND FRI. WED AND THU ALSO LOOK TO BE PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY AND NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SCHC WED FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY...AND DROP POP FROM INHERITED FOR THURSDAY FOR
THE SAME REASONS. BY FRIDAY...A BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SO CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
RAMP UP...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP POP IN THE CHC RANGE FOR D6/D7 WITH COOLER TEMPS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...PATCHY LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF
MYR/KFLO AND NE OF KLBT...BUT ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR. SHOWERS
ARE WELL OFFSHORE EXCEPT SOME SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING OUT OF MID
CLOUDS NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A LAND BREEZE IS APPARENT ON
DOPPLER RADAR MOVING OFFSHORE OF KILM.

LIGHT NW-N WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT N-NE THEN E THROUGH THE
MORNING. SCT LOW CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS. AT KFLO/KLBT SCT MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED. BY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME SE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE CHANCE
OF VCSH IS LOW AT THE TERMINALS...WITH EVEN LESS CHANCE OF VCTS.

THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KFLO/KLBT AND LIGHT SW
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT VFR BECOMING MVFR DUE TO BR
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT KFLO/KLBT. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR
POSSIBLE MAINLY KMYR/KCRE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS MONDAY...
OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM SUNDAY...WEAK LANDBREEZE FLOW STARTING TO MIX OUT
THIS MORNING AS THE SEA BREEZE WILL GET THINGS GOING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS FLOW INCREASES ESPECIALLY
LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP JUST OFFSHORE. LONG STORY
SHORT...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE WAVERING ALONG THE COAST. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL
PINCH...CAUSING S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. HAVE
EASED WINDS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE SINCE THE WAVE SHOULD BE
WEAK...BUT 15-20 KT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A WIND
WAVE OF 5 FT AT 6 SEC...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2FT/11SEC SWELL
TO PRODUCE 4-6 FT SEAS MUCH OF MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
LATE MONDAY WITH A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT LEFTOVER FOR TUESDAY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING TOWARDS THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
A SW WIND OF 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS WILL FALL TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
EARLY IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FLOW
WED AND THU AS A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINDS AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL BE FROM THE TYPICAL SW DIRECTION...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE A
WIND CHOP ATOP AN 11 SEC GROUND SWELL...AND SEAS WILL BE 3-4
FT...ISOLATED UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES...BOTH DAYS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR



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