Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 261735
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
140 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air and slightly cooler temperatures will begin spreading
across the area today as high pressure edges in from the west.
An upper disturbance will bring a few showers late on Tuesday
followed by a reinforcement of cooler and drier air through mid
week. Summer warmth and humidity will return late week into next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM Monday...Just tweaked (down) sky cover forecast with
the benefit of this morning`s visible satellite imagery. Despite
perhaps more sunshine and thus destabilization expected the last few
runs of the HRRR (which initialized great with the activity
offshore) suggests that no showers will develop over land today.

As of 3 AM Monday...A long awaited cold front is situated
northeast to  southwest from just south of Wilmington to just
north of Kingstree South Carolina. A few showers are breaking
out along and south of the boundary as expected as favorable
upper level jetting passes by. These should wind down in the
next few hours and warrants only slight chance pops through 12
UTC mostly along coastal and southern areas. The front will
continue to slowly push offshore through the day and with
precipitable water values dropping to below an inch, no
convection is expected. I opted for the slightly warmer MET
numbers for daytime highs in the middle to upper 80s. Tonight
will be very pleasant with lows in the middle to upper 60s with
the possibility of even lower values in extreme northwest zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Primary headlines this period include an
upper disturbance in the cradle of a trough aloft followed by
unseasonably drier and cooler air for late June on Wednesday.
The moisture profiles for late Tuesday appear unsupportive of
TSTMS and only depicted showers. Height rises early Wednesday
will reinforce surface high pressure, prompting cool air flux
with falling dewpoints. Mugginess will disappear and maximums
Wednesday even under sunshine 83-87, vastly more comfortable
than recently, minimums 60-66 degrees at daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Cooler and dry high pressure will become
established across the forecast area through much of the period.
Aloft a ridge is well establish for most of this forecast with
a trough moving into the Carolinas by next Sunday.

At the surface by the last half of the forecast period, return
flow on the back side of the Bermuda high will see a slight
increase in chances of precipiation by the end of the period
with little larger scale forcing forcing present.

High temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal on
Wednesday and then slowly warm to normal by Sunday. Lows are
expected to be in the middle 60s inland to near 70 at the coast
on Wednesday before returning into the low to middle 70s by the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 18Z...VFR through the period in a post-frontal drying regime
intically. Moisture will return as the front washes out offshore and
the winds start to turn back onshore. At this time this is not
expected to lead to fog or low clouds.

Extended Outlook...Isolated flight restrictions possible with
with scattered showers late Tuesday afternoon to early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM Monday...No changes planned for midday. Here`s the
previous discussion:

As of 3 AM Monday...Winds have shifted across the northern waters
with a northerly component now being reported at 41013 and JMPN7
as  a cold front eases off the coast. The southernmost waters
are probably seeing southwest winds continuing. They to will
eventually see north to northeast winds of 10-15 knots which
will prevail through the near term forecast period. As usual the
sea breeze may distort the typical summertime synoptic flow.
Significant seas will be 2-3 feet.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Manageable but atypical marine conditions
since N-NE winds will prevail as high pressure from the west
spreads slightly cooler and drier into the area. Seas however
should hold at 3 feet or less and winds 17KT or less this period
so no caution headline or advisory anticipated. A few marine
showers may form Tuesday night as a disturbance aloft skirts by
and a few TSTMS near the Gulf Stream may erupt, but move east
not into shore. Seas 2-3 feet in a mix of weak SE swell, waning
S waves and a moderate N-NE chop.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...High pressure will dominate this forecast
with northeast winds at or below 10 knots on Wednesday. By
Friday there will be a break in the high pressure ridge and
winds will return from the south but only around 10 knots. Seas
will generally range around 2 feet with an 8 to 9 second period
from the southeast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...MBB/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...DRH
AVIATION...MBB


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