Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 030240
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1040 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED.
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF THE COAST LATE
THIS EVE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR RUBLE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO OUR WSW REACHES THE AREA TOWARD
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN HAS BEGUN TO BACK
OFF...SHOWING LESS AND LESS IN THE WAY OF RENEWED CONVECTION. THUS
HAVE LOWERED THE POPS TO MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT INLAND.
ALONG THE COAST...HIGH POPS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION
FINALLY EXITS OR JUST SLOWLY DISSIPATES IN PLACE.

LOW LEVEL JETTING SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT...BUT
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN...
EXPECT WE WILL SEE LOW STRATUS DEVELOP AND EXPAND. THUS...IT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...EVEN AFTER THE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT.

THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS AND SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOWS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY THROUGH THE 70S THIS EVE AND TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER STEADY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...LOWER TO MID
70S.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GAUGE IN DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY EXCEED MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL
REMAIN IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUE AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUE INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THU. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY CREATING MVFR AT KFLO. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DECREASING IN STRENGTH AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
WILL MAINLY SEE VCSH/-SHRA FOR KLBT...WHILE THE COASTAL TERMINALS
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
KT AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT. ON
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK WITH TIME. LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL
BRING SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SEAS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS...FURTHEST
REMOVED FROM THE STRONGEST JETTING...WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED NEAR
20 KT AND SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 5 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS WHERE A
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE HAS BEEN RAISED.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUE. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL



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