Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
FXUS62 KILM 101123
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
623 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016
Arctic high pressure will maintain some of the coldest
temperatures of the season through tonight. A warming trend will
begin late Sunday into Monday. A cold front will move into the
area Monday night,remaining in the area through Wednesday before
a second stronger cold front will bring below normal
temperatures back to the area Thursday and Friday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Temperatures at or below freezing early
this morning throughout the CWA but have been a bit slower to
fall than anticipated due to continued mixing. If winds do drop
off we can expect nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions to
bring widespread mid and lower 20s by daybreak. If not, then
temperatures will bottom out a couple of degrees higher. Cold
any way you look at it.
The cold and dry Arctic high centered over the Mississippi River
Valley early this morning will transition to eastern CONUS today and
tonight, with the high axis aligned along the east coast by daybreak
on Sunday. Below normal temperatures and cloud-less skies will
continue for another day, with highs in the mid to upper 40s and
lows in the mid to upper 20s, with lower 30s closer to the coast.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Ridge axis overhead will shift offshore
on Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west. This front
will move SE and offshore overnight Monday. Pre-frontal WAA will
bring a warming trend, with temperatures rising back above
normal by Sunday night, with highs on Monday will be well up in
the 60s. Precip chances increase as the front approaches, with
the chance for showers from Sunday night through Monday. Keeping
QPF on the modest side considering shallow layer of available
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM Saturday...A cold front will not get too much of
a push as flow remains rather zonal aloft with a very broad
trough across the upper mid west. The surface boundary may make
it south of area but winds aloft will remain W-SW producing some
overrunning with likelihood of clouds and possible pcp around
through Tues into Wed. By Wed it looks like a minor perturbation
in the mid levels may ride across helping to develop weak low
pressure along lingering boundary and keeping unsettled weather
over the area. This low should move off to the east Wed night
into early Thurs as a stronger cold front moves through.
Temperatures will have less diurnal swings with plenty of
moisture and clouds around. Expect above normal temps overnight
and near normal temps during the day for Tues/Wed, closer to 60
for max temps during the day. Cooler temps should follow as high
pressure builds in rather briefly behind cold front for Thurs
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 12Z...High confidence VFR will continue over the next 24
NW-NE winds 5-10 kt expected this morning, highest at the coastal
terminals. Speeds decrease to 6 kt or less by this afternoon as
surface high pressure builds in. This evening winds become light and
variable or light NE as the center of high pressure settles in
overhead. As the high slips off to the east later in the evening,
winds will become E in the boundary layer opening the door for low
level moisture to begin to increase. Sct 1.8-4k range SC possible at
the coastal terminals, most likely KMYR, towars sunrise.
Extended Outlook...MVFR/-RA Sun evening with IFR Mon morning. VFR
developing Mon. Periods of MVFR/-RA Mon night through Wednesday with
IFR most likrly during the morning hours.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Cold and dry Arctic high pressure will
build east across the waters today and tonight. N winds of 10 to
15 kts today will veer to the NE tonight. Seas will stay in the
2 to 4 kt range through the period.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...High pressure will move east of the
waters as a cold front approaches from the west. This front will
move offshore by around daybreak on Tuesday and will be
accompanied by showers, mainly from Sunday night through Monday.
We may see seas build as high as 4 to 6 ft Sunday night in the
tight southerly gradient preceding FROPA, so it is possible that
a Small Craft Advisory will be issued for then.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Winds will veer around to the north by
Tues as cold front drops south, diminishing down to 10 to 15 mph
with seas subsiding down to 2 to 4 ft. This front may stall
across or just south of the waters on Tues and may linger over
the waters producing more variable winds and seas through mid
week. For now, will maintain light northerly flow becoming more
southerly on Wed as low pressure develops along lingering
boundary and then a stronger cold front follows behind pushing
through the waters by early Thurs. Winds will pickup out of the
north behind the front with seas increasing up to 4 to 5 ft, but
ahead of it expect seas on a downward trend through Tues into
Wed basically remaining between 2 and 4 ft most waters.