Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 021844
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
244 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH A GOOD CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIP ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...AS EXPECTED...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO PICK
UP THIS AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY DESTABILIZED.
AN ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDING DATA SHOWED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
COLUMN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A DEVELOPING PIEDMONT-STYLE
THERMAL TROUGH...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL PROVIDE FOCI FOR DEVELOPMENT. A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS IT
IMPINGES UPON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER
PICTURE ALSO LOOKS GOOD FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A
DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.
GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE...THE PRESENT FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STILL LOOKS GOOD...AS DOES THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND CLOSEST IN VICINITY TO THE
THERMAL TROUGH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE INTO
THE SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN
CONUS. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SERIES OF FACTORS COME IN TO PLAY...INCLUDING FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES...DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED MORE OR
LESS ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL EITHER
STALL OR SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE THEREAFTER. BOTH GFS AND NAM
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS COULD BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THEN. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL DRYING AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS THE
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...SO EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED
OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...EASTERN EDGE OF OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP LATE
IN THE WEEK WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. THE
5H LOW/TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL LIKELY
LEADING TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE WITH NORTHERN LOCATIONS THE MOST
FAVORED. SIMILAR STORY...MINUS THE COLD FRONT...FRI AND POSSIBLY
SAT. MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVERHEAD GENERATING INSTABILITY SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...KEEPING COVERAGE LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO.

BLOCK STARTS BREAKING DOWN/SHIFTING EAST ON SAT WITH 5H RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR SUN AND MON. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES WHICH PREVENTS MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN AND SETS
UP DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN ADDITION TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES SAT NEAR CLIMO BUT THEN ABOVE CLIMO SUN AND MON.
WEAKENING OF THE 5H RIDGE AND CONTINUED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
RIDGE AXIS MON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN AS THE PERIOD
ENDS. DO NOT THINK PRECIP WILL FALL MON DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOCALIZED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG SEA BREEZE AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AS BOUNDARY PUSHES
INLAND FARTHER AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS ACTIVITY AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINING WEST OF LUMBERTON. THINK ACTIVITY
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z. MVFR
WILL BE THE FAVORED CATEGORY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH
ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION AHEAD
AND ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH WED MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS SE TOWARDS THE WATERS. SEAS OF RIGHT AROUND 3 FT WILL
INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE. WILL BE POSTING
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT TO COVER THIS SCENARIO. IN
ADDITION...THE WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL STAY SW THROUGH TUESDAY AND ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ADVISORIES TO BE POSTED...CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT FURTHER EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS. IT IS LIKELY THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING LATE THU AND THU NIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION AS HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH WIND SPEEDS
CLOSE TO 20 KT LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. GRADIENT STARTS TO SLOWLY
RELAX FRI WITH WINDS DROPPING FROM 15 TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING TO
10 TO 15 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS 10 TO 15 KT
INTO SAT BEFORE DROPPING CLOSER TO 10 KT LATE SAT AFTERNOON. SEAS
PEAK THU NIGHT...RUNNING 3 TO 5 FT DUE TO THE STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW. SEAS START TO SUBSIDE ON FRI...DROPPING TO 2 TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH 2 FT OR LESS EXPECTED BY SAT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...REK/III


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