Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 040650
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
250 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOLLOWED BY UNSETTLED
AND COOLER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF UNSEASONABLE HEAT IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS SET TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TEMPERATURES
PEAKING IN THE MID 90S MOST PLACES WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COAST. FORTUNATELY...DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A BIT LOWER
THAN RECENTLY EXPERIENCED...AND ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES TODAY
RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND 70.

ONCE AGAIN WE WILL SEE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE COLUMN DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. AVAILABLE MOISTURE NOT QUITE AS PLENTIFUL AS
YESTERDAY...WITH P/W VALUES OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. EXPECT SCATTERED
DIURNAL-TYPE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIAL
FOCUS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL
FADE WITH THE SUNSET...ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES DO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...MID/UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER TX AND NEW
ENGLAND SUPPORTS A BROAD BUT WEAK TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RESULT.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS BRINGING COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LOWER LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS TO THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH HARD TO PIN-
POINT IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS. THERE COULD
BE A LULL DURING SATURDAY AS THE GFS SUGGESTS A SLUG OF LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.
AFTERWARDS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REBOUND FOR SUNDAY WILL SOME
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV/MET NUMBERS
FOR THE HIGHS EACH DAY...WHICH NEAR OR JUST BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION
THE LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD TROUGH AT
500MB SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DURING MONDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER MONDAY...GETTING BACK
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOME DRYING BY MID-
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...NO PCPN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN FRI
HOURS. THE 5H VORT OVER EASTERN GA...IS PROGGED TO MOVE SE AND PASS
SOUTH OF ALL ILM TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH ITS DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. WITH A
RELAXED SFC PG EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN CALM WINDS NEARLY
EVERYWHERE...AND EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS HAVING THINNED
OUT...EXPECT MVFR FOG AT ALL LOCATIONS. A FEW TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY
ONES HAVING RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY...MAY OBSERVE IFR FOG.

BY MID-MORNING DAYTIME FRI...WILL SEE IMPROVEMENTS TO VSBY TO P6SM
WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS MYR/CRE TERMINALS WHERE HAZE MAY BECOME AN
ISSUE AND REDUCED VSBY TO 4SM TO 6SM THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS
USUALLY OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WHERE THE
SFC PG REMAINS RELAXED AHEAD OF IT WITH NO BIG-TIME MIXING FROM
ALOFT. VARIOUS MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE REMAIN A BIT HESITANT ON
WHETHER CONVECTION WILL OCCUR EITHER ALONG OR POSSIBLY AFTER THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDE CONVECTION VCNTY FOR THE INLAND
TERMINALS WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY IS PROGGED...BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SEA BREEZE AND
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COOL FRONT IN ORDER TO UPGRADE VCSH TO VCTS
ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE FRONTS PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE SUBTLE WITH A CHANGE IN THE WIND DIRECTIONS FROM
SW-NW TO NE-E OCCURRING FROM AFTER DAYBREAK FRI THRU MID EVENING
FRIDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR...IN MORNING FOG...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP
WINDS TURN TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WHILE REMAINING LIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING N AND NE. A SLACK GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE
LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THIS EVENT. EXPECT SEAS OF AROUND 2 FT OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE FAR OFFSHORE WILL SUPPORT A
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS...TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT
TIMES. SEAS WILL AROUND 3 FT...TO 3-4 FT AT TIMES BY SATURDAY
EVENING AWAY FROM THE COAST.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THEN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THE WIND
WILL VEER TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION LATER IN THE DAY. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY MORNING WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN LATE TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...REK/SRP


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