Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 011053
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
653 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ISSUED SPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...OTHERWISE PRIMARILY A TEMP FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WEST OF THE REGION WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN VERY DRY
ABOVE 800MB YIELDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEMES SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE MID 80S
MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH THE WARMEST READING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. MINS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY.
THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY COASTAL AREAS AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LATE IN THE
NIGHT AND IT APPEARS FRIDAY DAYTIME WILL BE DECENT. I HAVE FINE
TUNED THE POPS WITH THE FRONT NOW THAT IT HAS ENTERED THE SHORT
TERM DOMAIN BUT OVERALL LIKELY VALUES STILL HOLD. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH THE ONLY INTERESTING
NOTE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. THEY SHOULD BE ALMOST
IDENTICAL TO TODAY`S AS A LITTLE NORTHEAST SURGE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
PATTERN RELAXING VERY LATE. THIS DEEP TROUGH...CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL USHER IN A VERY FALL LIKE ATMOSPHERE WITH
THE ZERO DEGREE 850MB ISOTHERM DIVING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE MAIN AXIS OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION REACHES THE COAST SUNDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COOL
WITH SOME 40S SHOWING UP IN THE MEXILM BULLETIN FOR MONDAY AM. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MIXING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS MAY KEEP LOWS IN CHECK SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART
WITH NO POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...POCKETS OF DENSE FOG...MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z...WITH THE
WORST SPOTS BECOMING VFR AFTER 14Z. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ONCE AGAIN
WILL CONTINUE...FINALLY BEING REPLACED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TOMORROW
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY.
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING THURSDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE
FORECAST. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND SEAS IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS NOW FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL SEE VERY LIGHT
WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ON THE ORDER OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OT 15-20 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY SATURDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
FROM A TEPID 1-2 FEET THURSDAY TO 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS MAY DROP
DOWN TO BELOW TEN KNOTS VERY LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WITH SOME FIVE FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
SATURDAY WITH TWO FEET NEARSHORE. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR
CONFIGURATION ALBEIT WITH MUCH LOWER SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43




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