Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 010540
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
140 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture associated with the remnants of Bonnie will be very slow
to leave the area even as the actual system finally moves northeast
of the area during Wednesday. The risk for showers and thunderstorms
will persist into the weekend as a cold front drops into the area
and stalls. The front will move offshore early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1010 PM Tuesday...KLTX continues to indicate the remnant
Bonnie low just south of Cape Fear, moving very little. However,
with the loss of heating a nocturnal shift has occurred with the
bulk of the convection now found off the coast where the best
instability will reside. Shallow convection is associated with the
remnant low`s center while a larger area of convection was
occurring with the plume of deeper moisture east and southeast of
the low. At any rate, have lowered pops across the inland areas and
held onto chance pops across coastal southeast North Carolina to
account for showers wrapping around the low and pushing onshore.
The remainder of the forecast is on track with ample cloud cover,
above normal low temperatures, and the potential for patchy fog
across the Pee Dee.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Tuesday...The remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie will
continue to move very slowly to the NE this period...maintaining its
influence on the local weather. Wednesday morning...the remnants
will likely be just east of Wilmington and will drift NE to finally
exit the local coastal waters Wednesday night. As this low drifts
NE...a continued tropical airmass will support scattered showers
with heavy rainfall...but the heaviest rain should be focused NE of
the CWA on Wednesday. This is due to at least somewhat drier air
noted on today`s WV imagery and in forecast PWAT values advecting in
from the W/SW. Still...expect scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms across the eastern third of the CWA...aided by the sea
breeze boundary as temps rise again into the low/mid 80s. There will
be more sunshine inland...but enough dry air should preclude much
convection. Most showers/tstms will wane after dark but another very
warm night is forecast with lows falling only to around 70.

The residual low pressure from Bonnie will move towards the Outer
Banks Thursday...and the driest day in some time is expected
locally. Dry air from the west...drying NW flow...and building
heights aloft will keep convection mostly capped on Thursday. Cannot
rule out isolated showers and will maintain inherited POP mostly for
sea breeze activity...but Thursday will be a much better day with
highs in the mid 80s and lows again falling to around 70 beneath
more widespread sunshine and aftn diurnal cu.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 PM Tuesday...The mid level pattern will continue
to evolve slowly as would be expected as we transition into the
summer months. A poorly defined west to southwest flow will be in
place through the weekend over the southeast. With precipitable
waters remaining well above 1.5 inches, the Piedmont trough will
keep good chances of showers and thunderstorms in the area for the
weekend. Difficult to distinguish what day will be wetter or
drier. There is a subtle drying of the mid levels Sunday so this
would appear to be the better (drier) of days. By Monday and
Tuesday a decent mid level trough will allow a cold front to move
across the area. A drying trend will commence as well as cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 06Z...The remnants of the tropical low will slowly meander
northward. Models seem in fairly good agreement in introducing IFR
stratus after 06Z. The NAM is more pessimistic, keeping IFR
ceilings for much of the day. Showers will continue to move across
ILM through about 09z. By mid-day, expect convection to break out
again, mainly for the coastal terminals. FLO may not see any
convection, with a VCSH mention for LBT. Northeast winds will
become more easterly in the afternoon. Convection will all but end
by 23Z, mainly for diurnal reasons.

Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR with mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1010 PM Tuesday...Based on latest Waverider data and wind
speed observed at Johnny Mercer Pier have opted to raise the
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline to account for 20 kt
winds and 4 to 5 ft seas north of Cape Fear. Fetch to the north
of the nearly stationary remnant Bonnie low is creating these
conditions which should last into the overnight hours. Otherwise,
scattered showers will persist for the Cape Fear waters.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Tuesday...Remnants of Bonnie will finally "exit stage
right"...or in this case coastal waters right...by Thursday as it
moves slowly off to the NE allowing for broad ridging to expand
across the waters on Thursday. Winds Wednesday will be dictated by
the departing storm...E/NE far NE waters...W/NW southern
waters...becoming SW at 10 kt or less all waters late. On
Thursday as the ridge expands winds will remain out of the
SW...but increasing to 10-15 kt. Seas will be generally 2-4 ft
both Wednesday and Thursday...with a SE swell dominating the
spectrum Wednesday before a southerly wind wave amplifies during
Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM Tuesday...A relatively weak pressure pattern will be in
place through the period. The gradient will tighten up a bit on
Sunday as a decent front edges closer from the west. Southwest winds
on the lower end of a 10-15 knot range will suffice for Friday and
Saturday. With the slight increase in the gradient, winds should
increase to the top end of the range. Significant seas will be 2-3
feet early increasing a bit with the winds Sunday to 2-4 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RJD/DL



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