Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS61 KILN 272016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
416 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

High pressure off the east coast will result in warm and humid
conditions with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through
Sunday. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night into


Convection across the fa remains fairly capped as some drier mid
level air has worked into the region. An isolated shower did pop
up in Scioto County, so isolated convection is possible late this

As for the the rest of the night. Several of the
models, especially the convective allowing models are showing the
the orographic convection in WV and ern KY drifting n this evening
and possibly affecting the se portions of the fa. Carried a 20 PoP
between 00-06Z to cover this possibility. As for the rest of the
fa, went dry this evening as the best lift remains w of the fa.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.


On Saturday, the H5 ridge over the ern U.S. continues to protect
the region a little. The best lift will remain out over the plains
and MS valley in the vicinity of the H5 trof/low. Lowered PoPs
for tomorrow down to 30 percent as the lift looks disorganized,
but some weak vorticity lifting ewd should help pop some

Convection should die down again Saturday Night. By Sunday, some
moisture and energy from subtropical low that came onshore in the
Carolina`s will affect the region. This will interact with the
ejecting H5 s/w in the upper MS valley, to kick off some more
scattered thunderstorms. Still kept PoPs in the 30 percent range

Temperatures over the weekend will see highs in the lower to mid
80s. lows Saturday night will be in the mid to upper 60s again,
before cooing to the lower to mid 60s Sunday night.


Dry weather appears to be in store for Monday when weak surface high
pressure is forecast to develop under a flattened upper ridge. The
dry conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday as the
surface high travels slowly eastward on a weak westerly flow aloft.

Look for a transition to a more unsettled period starting Wednesday
when the upper flow backs to southwest, carrying a plume of moisture
to the Ohio Valley ahead of a surface cold front. Went with lower
chances for thunderstorms Wednesday, increasing on Thursday when the
cold front and associated convergence and lift may be crossing the
region from the west. A few thunderstorms may linger into Friday in
decreasing moisture and forcing behind the front.

Temperatures are forecast to stay about 5 to 10 degrees above normal
Monday through Thursday in the persistent southerly flow between
surface high pressure and the cold front. Readings may slide a few
degrees Friday in weak cold advection behind the front, with highs
still close to 80.


Mid level ridging will continue to extend from the mid Atlantic
coast into the upper Ohio valley through Saturday.

Our terminals will be in a lull this afternoon and tonight in
terms of the threat for showers/storms, with an isolated
possibility existing southeast of the terminals late this
afternoon into this evening. Diurnal cumulus should give way to
some mid and high clouds overnight. Some river fog is expected
again at KLUK and have placed a TEMPO 1/2 mile between 08Z and

On Saturday, low to mid level flow will continue from the south.
There still looks to be a lack of any strong forcing. Thus, some
scattered showers/storms could still develop in the heat of the
day, perhaps aided by any weak disturbance rippling through the
flow. Have added a VCSH at the 30 hour KCVG terminal to account
for this.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday.




LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hickman is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.