Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 291718
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
118 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE
MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
THE WEEKEND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORNING FOG QUICKLY MIXING OUT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE STILL
PATCHY IN SOME AREAS. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
FROM LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL BUT
ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP JUST A TAD NORTH AND WEST OF DAYTON WITH FEELING THAT ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR IN ALL AREAS AND DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT WHERE
BEST CONVECTION WILL BE AT THIS POINT. HEAT INDICES CERTAINLY
APPROACHING 100 AND TOUCH IN SOME SPOTS IN THE EAST AND SOUTH.
SPS ISSUED EARLIER FOR THIS BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR HEADLINES BEING
THAT MINIMUM CRITERIA TIME AND ALREADY HEIGHTENED AWARENESS OF
HEAT POTENTIAL. LEFT HIGH TEMPS ALONE FOR NOW WITH THOUGHTS OF A
TWEEK UP A DEGREE OR TWO BUT WILL MONITOR FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR
ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
FRIDAY UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT CROSSES ON SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE MOST ROBUST FROPA AND NEXT
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY ATTM GIVEN A WIDE RANGE IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

HIGHS AFTER TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP BACK TO THE MORE NORMAL AND MORE COMFORTABLE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF PSEUDO-ZONAL
FLOW (GENERALLY COMING FROM THE WNW)...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS OR
SHORTWAVES.

ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT
ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST.
AS A RESULT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING
FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP AS FAR...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS).

WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE GOING INTO FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT OVER THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS FOR WHEN
THIS WILL OCCUR...AND THE FRONT IS BARELY DETECTABLE ON THE 12Z
ECMWF. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ONLY IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SOME SORT OF WEAK FRONT
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK.

THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND SHORTWAVES BEGIN
TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOK HIGHEST FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADDING TO
THE AVAILABLE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH. EXPECT MAIN
FOCUS FROM 19Z TO 23Z. SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LITTLE CONCERN ABOUT SOME STRATUS CLOUDS
DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR
SHOULD HELP OVERCOME THAT. SOME LIGHT FOG NEAR SUNRISE ESPECIALLY
NEAR OHIO RIVER. DON`T BELIEVE IT WILL BE AS EXTENSIVE AS THIS
MORNING WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. LIGHT WINDS THRU PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...PADGETT
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...PADGETT



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