Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 241755
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1255 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture will continue to stream into the region, bringing a
chance for heavy rain today into tonight. A cold front will move
through the area tonight, bringing a chance of severe
thunderstorms, but also an end to the chance for heavy
rainfall. High pressure will then move into the region on
Monday, bringing drier conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Moist southwesterly flow with a tropical connection evident on
water vapor imagery. Mid level shortwave and associated low
level jet to pivot thru the area today providing an enhanced
chance for rain. Have slowed the return north of the e-w
oriented front over KY. This will keep temperatures cooler
today, especially across ILN/s northern counties. Expect a
gradient to daytime highs with readings ranging from the the
upper 40s far north to near 60 in the far south.

Energetic mid level s/w to eject northeast from the plains into
the Great Lakes and take on a negative tilt overnight. The
front to push back north this evening with non-diurnal
temperature rises. Very strong dynamics with 75-80 kt swrly low
level jet developing into the Ohio Valley this evening. This
will allow pw/s to increase and approach 1.4 inches...which
would be a record for this time of year. Marginal instby
expected to develop into the tri-state region and get pinched
off overnight. With strong wind flow...damaging winds will be
possible with this convection. Due to the favorable shear in the
lower levels, isolated tornadoes will be possible. The best
time for severe weather looks to be between 2 am and 7 am.

With several rounds of rain this afternoon and tonight in this
very moist environment have continued the flood watch.Addtional
rain of 1 to 2 inches likely with local amounts in excess of 3
inches possible. Although the storms will be progressive, with
an increase in pw/s...flash flooding will be possible tonight
with this embedded convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tonight, a strong shortwave trough is forecast to take on a
negative tilt as is lifts out through the nrn MS Valley. At the
same time, a surface low deepens at it moves into the wrn Great
Lakes. The low will whip a cold front up the Ohio Valley
tonight. Wind fields will increase (50-70 kt in the 850-500 mb
layer) and wind shear in the warm sector will contribute to
increasing severe weather potential. SPC has placed the fa in
marginal to slight risk for severe weather tonight. Damaging
winds and heavy rain will be the main threats from these storms.
Models are consistent in pushing the cdfnt through fa by 12Z,
bringing an end to the severe weather and flooding threat,
although rivers will stay out of their banks into next week.
With a strong gradient overnight, winds could gust up to 35 mph.

Surface high will build in from the southwest on Sunday. Expect
early highs on Sunday in the east. In the west, temperatures
will fall in morning, before recovering a little in the
afternoon.

Some high clouds will affect the region Sunday night into
Monday as upper level energy lifts northeast in the flow.
Temperatures will be a little cooler, but will remain above
normal with highs Monday from the upper 40s north to the upper
50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build across the Great Lakes
offering dry weather into the middle of next week.
Temperatures Tuesday look to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal,
with highs from the middle 50s north to the lower 60 south.

Mid level shortwave and surface low to eject northeast from the
central plains Wednesday into the Great Lakes Thursday. Some
timing and placement solution differences exist, so will limit
pops to chance category Wednesday afternoon, with a return
moisture. Then will ramp up pops to the likely category
Wednesday night into Thursday.

On the warm side of the system temperature look to remain 10 to
15 degrees above normal Wednesday with highs generally between
55 and 60.

With mid level trof settling into the Great Lakes will continue
a chance of showers across the north Friday. Temperatures
cooler and closer to normal Friday with highs from the lower 40s
north to near 50 south. As temperatures turn cooler the rain
showers may mix with and change to snow late Thursday
night/Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Scattered areas of rain to diminish in coverage with a temporary
lull in pcpn activity early this afternoon. MVFR to IFR CIGS
to continue across the TAf sites today north of an east-west
oriented front across Kentucky.

This front will lift north this evening, with pcpn becoming
more showery in nature, and a chance of thunderstorms given
the stronger dynamics and marginal instby. Expect low level
wind shear to affect the TAF sites for a period tonight with
a strong low level jet pivoting through the area.

Showers and embedded storms will end toward sunrise and CIGS
will lift to VFR early Sunday with the surface cold front
passage. Winds will shift to the sw and gust up to 35 kts with
the frontal passage in the low level CAA pattern.


OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Wednesday and Thursday in
showers.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos/Sites
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR


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