Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 231038
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
638 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY. RETURN
MOIST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INTERACT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
ALOFT TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A MIX
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM TIME
TO TIME. SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO SOME MID CLOUDS. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE SOME OF
THIS DWINDLE THIS MORNING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND HEATING. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE REGION. IT WILL
BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL REGION WILL
EVENTUALLY EXTENDED FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. OUR AREA WILL EVENTUALLY SEE A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY. IT WILL
REMAIN WARM BUT IT WILL BECOME MORE HUMID.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A REPEAT OF MONDAY CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE INTERACTING WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT. WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME LEADING TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
FRAME. A BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR
STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES. DUE TO THIS HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPANSIVE MID DECK /12KFT-20KFT/ HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. DON/T EXPECT CIGS TO
DROP BELOW ABOUT 10KFT THIS MORNING...AND THEN SLOWLY BREAK UP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THUS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FLOW WILL BE WEAK/VARIABLE THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD AS WELL. IF
WINDS DO GET ABOVE 3 OR 4KTS...LIKELY TO BE AN ESE COMPONENT
THOUGH WILL BE VARIABLE MOST OF THE TIME.

A LITTLE BETTER INCREASE IN WIND ON SUNDAY MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY IN STRONGER WARM ADVECTION REGIME. ALSO COULD SEE SOME
SCT-BKN 4KFT-6KFT CIGS DEVELOP VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THIS STRONGER PUSH OF WARMTH/MOISTURE...AND HINTED AT
THIS IN NEW 30 HOUR CVG TAF VALID SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...BINAU






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