Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 200534
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
134 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC RIDGE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERING TO THE SW BY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SE HALF OF ILN/S FA. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ACRS THE SE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 NW TO THE UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-71. GIVEN THIS AGREEMENT HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED AND FORCING NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT
PREDOMINANTLY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER.
STILL NOT CLEAR HOW EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE. BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH. SO BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH THAT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT. PREFERRED
WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS. THEREAFTER USED A
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED...BUT WITH A FEW
COMPLICATIONS IN THE FORECAST TO DISCUSS. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW BY MORNING...TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY (UP TO 20 KNOTS)
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED GOING INTO
THE DAY...GENERALLY IN THE 4000-6000 FOOT RANGE. MVFR FOG AT KLUK
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT
IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO THE TAF SITES BY 05Z-08Z.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS






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