Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 030525
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
125 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RISE IN
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES
FOR STORMS INCREASING THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FEW REMAINING SHOWERS NEAR WEST CENTRAL OHIO ARE DISSIPATING.
CLOUDS IN THAT REGION SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS WELL. OTHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE OFF AS
WELL. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS FROM GUIDANCE
CONCERNING HOW EXTENSIVE OR THICK THE FOG WILL BECOME BUT DID OPT
TO ADD PATCHY DENSE TO RIVER VALLEYS WHERE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES
SEEM MORE PROBABLE. ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH
IS NOT THE CLEANEST OF HIGHS...WITH MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH AT
VARIOUS LEVELS. IN FACT...THE NAM AND SPC-WRF BOTH SHOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND LOOSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN.

THE SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT (AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY). MOST OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING NORTHERN
STREAM CONVECTION GETTING VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA EARLY
ON THURSDAY...DECAYING AS IT RUNS INTO THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.
A 20-POP WILL BE KEPT IN THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY...AT
LEAST UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEARER SKIES WILL BE
WARMER...WITH LOWER-TO-MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID-TO-UPPER 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.  IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE EXPECT WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY ALLOWING
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON
SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.

COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW REGIME...WOULD
EXPECT VSBYS TO CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THAT BEING SAID...VSBYS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND A BIT SO FAR...PERHAPS
DUE TO SOME OF THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. EITHER WAY...WILL HANG ON TO FAIRLY LOW VSBY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVING AS THE FOG LIFTS THROUGH
MID MORNING. WE COULD SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATER PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL






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