Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 250429
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1129 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

RADAR LOOPS INDICATE AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN 2/3 OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT. AFTERWORDS EXPECT NO MORE THAN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FLURRIES. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AND
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE AS TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ARE HARDLY
ANY COLDER THAN ACROSS OUR REGION.  OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

MODEL DATA INDICATE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING
THIS PERIOD. TODAY/S SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY LIFTING OFF INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY LATER THIS WEEK.

EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS
SUGGEST LOW CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE
PLAINS. OPERATIONAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN HOLDING OFF THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT UNTIL SATURDAY...BUT THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE
THIS MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THICKNESSES SUGGEST
A RAIN EVENT AT THIS TIME.

WILL NUDGE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY DOWN A CATEGORY DUE TO
EXPECTED LINGERING LOW CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE THE GUIDANCE LOOKS
REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD REGARDING
AMONG OTHER THINGS HOW QUICKLY FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS UPPER TROUGHING WORKS ITS WAY
OVER THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK WITH COLDER AIR SET TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS NEW YEARS. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY DID NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. WENT WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT MIXING WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT PER THE
PARTIAL THICKNESSES. OTHERWISE...ONLY WENT WITH SMALL POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
IN THE CARDS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

CONDITIONS AT LEAST MVFR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE IFR BORDERLINE THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...AND MAY BRIEFLY BECOME IFR AT TIMES...BUT THIS IS APPEARING
LOWER PROBABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY...AND WILL REMOVE TEMPO GROUP.

WHILE MOS SUGGESTS A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW...THIS IS OFTEN TOO QUICK AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MOISTURE BENEATH A WEAKENING
BUT STILL PRESENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS
WILL KEEP CEILINGS MVFR THROUGH SUNSET CHRISTMAS DAY. NOT ENTIRELY
CONFIDENT THAT LOW CEILINGS MAY NOT REOCCUR OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL MOVE THINGS TO VFR FOR NOW AS THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE SUGGESTS AS SUCH.

WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN SPORADIC AT BEST AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE THREAT IS DIMINISHING. THUS...WILL GO WITH WESTELRY WINDS OF
10-15KT OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY BACKING AND DIMINISHING BY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...NIELD

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