Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIND 011434
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1034 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY HOWEVER A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HINT THAT AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A DEEPENING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT STRETCHING APPROXIMATELY FROM TERRE
HAUTE TO MUNCIE. STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUE TO HOLD IN
NORTH OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT IN
MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE LAST HOUR AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE.
WITH THE SUNNY SKIES INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH INTO THE MID 70S.

REMOVED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING AND BROUGHT
CHANCES IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INCREASED SUNSHINE AND MORE
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE INCREASED THUNDER WORDING TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WITH THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND A JET MAX FORECAST TO ROLL INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS AROUND
0Z. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME HI RES MODELS...WHICH ARE CAPTURING THE
INCREASED SUNSHINE AND TEMPS...ARE NOT DEVELOPING MUCH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EXCEPT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND INSTEAD ARE HOLDING OFF
DEVELOPMENT FOR CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL AROUND 22-1Z. WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY PREFER TO LEAVE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES. NOT SURE ABOUT
THE LIKELIES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STARTING 22Z BUT WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY AND INSTABILITY WOULD PREFER TO LEAVE THEM ALONE AT THIS
TIME.

TONIGHT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS EVENING AND HIGH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  THEN SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...LOWERED HIGHS A LITTLE FAR NORTHWEST AS
COLD FRONT AND LOTS OF STRATUS TO THE NORTH MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES THERE.
OTHERWISE...WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES OTHER AREAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.   HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE
70S SOUTH.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER THEN.  YESTERDAY MODELS INDICATED COLD FRONT WOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST AND HIGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP US DRY.   MODELS TODAY INDICATE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER
AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD ONLY BE A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND BOTH GUIDANCE POPS SEEM A BIT TOO HIGH.
NEVERTHELESS WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD IN BY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG ON
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTH INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AS AN
UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY AND THE 60S TUESDAY...
WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT A LACK OF INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.  AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DELMARVA AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES
WILL END ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S.  A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE IN THE
PERIOD THOUGH AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

1430Z UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE JUST EARLIER WAS TO KEEP KLAF DOWN IN
IFR OR LOWER FOG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD MIX OUT
QUICKLY AND ABRUPTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS AND THIS WAS
REFLECTED IN THE UPDATED TAFS. OTHER THE OTHER SITES ARE ALL
CURRENTLY VFR AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING AT KLAF
WITH VLIFR CATEGORY...EXPECT MODERATE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AFTER
SUN 15Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AS A LULL IN
ACTIVITY CONTINUES. WEATHER COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AFTER SUN 18Z
THOUGH AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA...SO WILL CARRY
MENTION OF VCTS AND MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION OVERNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MON 09Z.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...JH/CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...SMF/TDUD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.