


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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329 FXUS63 KIND 140539 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 139 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog possible late tonight and into tomorrow morning`s commute - Not quite as warm/humid through Monday, with otherwise humid and very warm/marginally hot conditions returning Tuesday - Daily chances of showers/t-storms next week for mainly Tuesday and onward with isolated downpours/localized flooding possible && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 139 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Observations show dense fog near/in northern Carroll County, with fog developing to the west and northwest of central Indiana. Latest hi-res guidance shows dense fog continuing to spread across the northwest forecast area overnight, and this seems reasonable with the light winds, lower cloud cover, and high moisture content of the lower atmosphere. Have thus issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the northwest forecast area. Will continue to monitor for changes and if the need to adjust the advisory arises. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)... Issued at 259 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Central Indiana is seeing cumulus clouds across the area with approaching showers and storms just off to the west. Isolated showers have formed in our NW as of mid-afternoon but that coverage will continue to expand as showers and storms fill in and the system gradually approaches. While our NW border is already seeing a few showers as of this issuance, our SW border should see the arrival of storms around 4 to 5pm. Main threats with storms this evening will be lightning, localized heavy rain, and a few strong winds gusts within stronger storms. Best threat for isolated damaging winds will be along and south of I-74, where an expected vort max will interact with a warm, buoyant environment, and the threat is expected to come to an end around sunset. This system will continue progressing eastward through the evening and into tonight. Past midnight, the best chances for PoPs will be south of I-70. With a moist airmass in place, calm winds, and lingering showers, patchy fog will again be possible for late tonight and into tomorrow morning`s commute. As the morning goes on, fog should mix out and most of the lingering rain should have pushed eastward. However, a boundary could stall just to the SE so our SE counties could see rain into the afternoon or evening hours. Afternoon heating may also work to enhance coverage later in the day as well, but strong storms are not expected. Lows tonight will be near 70 and highs tomorrow will again be in the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)... Issued at 259 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Overall forecast thoughts remain generally the same for the extended thus an update to the discussion was not needed. Expect daily storm chances through the period with localized flooding being the primary threat. Weak deep-layer shear should tend to limit the severe threat, but deep moisture and daytime heating promoting strong instability most afternoons could support isolated strong to severe wind gusts in loosely-organized storms mid to late week. Please refer to the previous discussion below for additional details on the long-term forecast... Stagnant mid-summer synoptic pattern to continue over the Midwest this week, as the H500 588 dm height contour to remain generally in a zonal west-to-east alignment just north of central Indiana through at least mid-week. Weak surface ridging through Monday night will suppress better deep moisture to the south, with precipitable water values closer to only 1.50 inches over the local region. Corresponding surface dewpoint reductions will be minor, but should be enough to get lows Monday night into the upper 60s for much of the region. Light southerly breezes Tuesday afternoon will then return several marginally hot and humid days through the mid-week. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F...will combine with dewpoints in the low to mid-70s...to yield afternoon maximum heat indices into the mid-90s to low 100s. The return of loosely-organized diurnally-driven convection Tuesday should increase on to numerous showers/scattered TRWs for both Wednesday and Thursday...which should at least provide late-day heat relief for some locations. An increasingly-active northern jet should send several short waves eastward along the Canadian border through the mid- to late week. While there is so far low confidence in any of these weaknesses plunging cooler air into the local region by the end of the long term, they will at least encourage surface low pressure to take form across the central Plains, with associated gradient and weak convergence over the local CWA fueling convection with oppressive humidity, lift...and just enough wind shear to present the potential for stronger storms by the late workweek. Greatest threats in any stronger mid/late week thunderstorms will be isolated flooding from downpours and possibly strong to severe winds. Chances for a cold frontal passage will be highest by the end of the long term, with the periods` lowest temperatures possible as the workweek ends. Indianapolis` normal max/min will maintain the year`s peak values through July 22...85/67. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 103 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Impacts: - IFR and worse conditions at most sites in stratus and fog developing during the night and lasting until about 13Z - Isolated showers around during the night with isolated storms mainly southern sites Monday afternoon Discussion: Stratus and fog will continue to develop across the sites overnight, with most sites reaching IFR conditions. KLAF should see the lowest visibility with lower than IFR conditions possible. Elsewhere should see mainly MVFR visibility with IFR ceilings. Fog and stratus will mix out during the morning, with a scattered to broken cumulus field developing. Isolated showers and storms will be around at times through the period, primarily at the southern sites. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ021-028- 029-035-036-043-044. && $$ UPDATE...50 SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...AGM/Melo AVIATION...50