Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 260637
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
237 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

A front sinking south of the area will confine thunderstorm
chances to the southern portion of central Indiana through most of
the next 48 hours. Upper level disturbances moving into the area
later in the week will allow thunderstorm chances to again
overspread most of the area. Temperatures throughout the 7 day
forecast will remain near normal for the time of year, much cooler
than in recent days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 939 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

A combination of cloud cover and little or no wind has kept
dewpoints and surface temperatures from falling much so have
adjusted hourly trend for a more slow fall. Satellite trends show
clouds to begin thinning some after midnight so still expecting
min temps close to previous forecast...especially in the south
where clouds will be thicker from remnant convection earlier this
evening.

Kept low chance pops across the south as residual surface energy
within diffuse surface trough are forecast by all models to
redevelop precipitation there before daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Will have to maintain at least a slight chance across the south
Tuesday through Wednesday, although the area will likely remain
dry most of the time. Chances will again overspread the entire
area Wednesday night into Thursday as upper level troughing works
its way into the area. Significant organized convection does not
appear particularly likely at this time.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable throughout with minor
tweaks. Temperatures will be cooler than in recent days but still
near seasonal normals. This will still represent a refreshing
break for the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...

Issued at 237 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

ECMWF suggests a low pressure system and cyclonic flow pushing
through the Great Lakes and Indiana on Friday and Saturday. Aloft
ECMWF suggests a weak...broad trough in place across the upper
midwest and great lakes. Superblend keeps chc pops in place as
these features passes...which seems reasonable.

As the low moves to the east coast on Sunday through Tuesday...High
pressure...ridging and subsidence is expected as depicted by the
ECMWF. Given this and the relatively cooler and drier air mass
that is expected across the area...have tried to add value to the
forecast by removing pops as suggested by superblend.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 260600Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

MVFR conditions possible at times through mid morning in fog
otherwise predominantly VFR expected.

Convoluted forecast as diffuse frontal boundary becoming quasi-
stationary over southern portions of central Indiana for much of the
period. With only weak high pressure located to the northwest...dry
air and deeper subsidence has been unable so far to make much of a
southward push into the region. Model soundings and RH progs showing
boundary layer moisture lingering and expanding over much of central
Indiana along and south of I-70 overnight...with the possibility of
stratocu to go along with patchy fog. With that being said...lower
level cloud coverage being overdone by most models currently. Only
terminal where there is reasonable confidence at minimal ceilings is
KLAF but even here there are likely to be visibility restrictions
during the predawn through daybreak period.

With the front stalling in south central Indiana...HRRR/WRF/NAM all
try to develop few showers into areas as far north as the I-70
corridor as early as the predawn hours and continuing into Tuesday
as weak disturbances ride the boundary. Mesoanalysis indicating
a zone of enhanced convergence over southern portions of central
Indiana in the vicinity of the front and expect any precip would
develop in this area if at all. KBMG would stand the greatest chance
to be impacted by rain showers but overall...have very low
confidence in any precip impacting the terminals at this point
through this evening. Expect additional cu development during the
day with the amount of low level moisture present. May see more
pronounced scattering of clouds this evening as boundary shifts
further south and drier air attempt to spread in from the north.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN



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