Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290619
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
119 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 711 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

WARMER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING INTO THE 40S BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

UPDATE PRIMARILY FOR MI COUNTIES FOR MENTION OF LOW POP/QPF
TONIGHT. WITH 40-45 KT SRLY JETLET IMPINGING UPON SRN TIP OF LK
MI CONTS TO FOCUS PRIMARILY LIGHT/PARTIALLY ALOFT RETURNS THAT
EXTEND UPSTREAM INTO CENTRAL WI. DIFFICULTIES WITH RESPECT TO ICE
INTRODUCTION LENDS TOWARD LIGHT SN/FZDZ AS PRIMARY PTYPE...THOUGH
A FEW POCKETS OF HIR RETURNS INDICIATIVE OF SLEET APPEAR TO
MAINTAIN INTO SWRN LWR MI/VAN BUREN CO. SHARP GRADIENT OF
POPS/QPF WITH ADVISORIES HOISTED TO NORTH...STILL WITH INCRSG
RUC13 925 MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...EXPECT MAJORITY OF SITES TO TRACE AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
290K SURFACE WAS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SNOW...HOWEVER...A DRY
LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS WAS INHIBITING SOME SNOWFALL. THE SNOW
SHOULD END OVER NORTHEAST AREAS EARLY TONIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT IN THE LOW LEVELS. 925/850 MB MOISTURE INCREASES TO
OVER 6 G/KG OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE
SATURDAY ALL AREAS. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WHEN THE PRECIPITATION STARTS...HOWEVER...FOR
NOW...KEPT JUST DRIZZLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINOR. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD NEARLY OFFSET DIURNAL
COOLING...WITH TEMPERATURES POISED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

BRIEF WARM UP TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE UPPER TROF OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL ROTATE DOWN INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. COMBINED EFFECT WILL HAVE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WAA OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES INTO NORTHERN INDIANA WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 12-14C.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NON-DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPS SAT NITE WITH
STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING IN THE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...POSSIBLY REACHING 50F IN SW CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING
SHARPLY FALLING TEMPS AFTER REACHING HIGHS IN THE 50S. SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC LEAVING
VERY LITTLE FORCING OVER OUR AREA AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GULF
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LACKING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ONLY
A SHALLOW SFC BASED SATURATED LAYER BELOW INVERSION SO WOULD
EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IF ANY PRECIP WERE
TO DEVELOP. NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT ALONG WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR LES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 3KFT AND DELTA T ONLY 10-15C SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND
BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA MONDAY-TUESDAY. MODELS OFFER
VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP. MOST CONSISTENT
SIGNAL HAS BEEN TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH GOING FCST AND SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR PRECIP THU-
FRI. GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY...GETTING
BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL BY END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

SFC CYCLONE DVLPG OVR THE WRN DAKOTAS WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY THIS
PD AS IT LIFTS OUT TWD JAMES BAY. CORRESPONDING WARM SECTOR WILL
DEEPEN RAPIDLY TDA AS SIG LL THERMAL RIDGE ADVTS EWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY. FLEDGLING MSTR RTN OUT OF THE WRN GOMEX LIKELY ENOUGH WITHIN
WEAKLY FORCED BNDRY LYR TO PROMOTE SOME DZ THIS AFTN W/MVFR FUEL ALT
CONDS LIKELY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MURPHY
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...T


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