Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 241757

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1257 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

Issued at 1237 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

Major to moderate flooding continues to impact portions of
northwest Indiana and southwest lower Michigan. This morning`s rain
impacting the greater US 24 corridor is gradually pushing out of
the area. Through the afternoon, there can be scattered showers
and areas of drizzle area-wide before steady rain arrives late
this evening and continues overnight. There can perhaps be some
thunder. Breezy, but drier, conditions arrive for Sunday.


Issued at 1043 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

Heaviest rain thus far has remained just on the fringe of our far
SE counties with most locations in the watch area seeing roughly a
quarter to third of an inch of rain so far. Upstream trends show
what will likely be a temporary diminishing trend in between lead
disturbance and main trough/cold front tonight. Will be trying to
add some temporal detail to the grids with a trend to chc/sct
showers along with possible token mention of drizzle. Pops will
quickly ramp up towards and after 00Z with the cold front
approaching but Hi-Res models vary on exactly how much precip
occurs across the area. Still think everyone will see at least a
period of showers/isol thunder overnight so categorical pops
appear warranted. No changes to Flood Watch (southeast) or Areal
Flood warning (northwest) at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 331 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

Rain was spreading from south to north across the area early this
morning. There may be a brief wintry mix at the onset this morning
but travel issues are not expected as temperatures stay above
freezing. Given recent radar observations and trends and given a
preferred model blend which has preformed well this past week,
have raised all rainfall amounts. Also, after coordination with
neighboring offices, have also issues a flood watch for areas
south and east of Fort Wayne. The grounds remain saturated earlier
rains this past week. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with
locally higher amounts will cause more rivers to flood as well as
flooding of lowlands.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

There will be a break from the rain early this coming week as an
upper trof lifts northeast and allows a dry pattern to prevail for
3 days. The bulk of the upper level energy will remain over
western North America. This will allow temperatures to rise much
above normal and help things dry out into Wednesday. A cooler and
more active pattern with rain developing is expected Thursday as
energy in the form of short wave trofs move east.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

The active TAF period continues, but with quieter conditions at
the end.

At SBN, rain likely holds off for the next few hours before rain
showers and IFR ceilings arrive as a moisture-rich area of low
pressure lifts into the Midwest. Moderate to steady rain spreads
over the terminal near 00z with a further decrease in ceilings.
Wind shear becomes a concern as an intense low-level jet moves in.
Overnight, winds will quickly become west-southwesterly as a cold
front sweeps through.

AT FWA, there is the greater opportunity for passing rain showers
through the afternoon with continued IFR ceilings. As eluded to
in the previous discussion, thunder was added to the TAF. I could
see future TAFs further zeroing- in on this thunder threat. For
now, 00-07Z looks to be the best window of opportunity. LIFR
conditions are likely for a time during this period as well.


IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ026-027-032>034.

OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ016-024-025.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Sunday
     for LMZ043-046.

     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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