Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 231055
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
655 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE STICKY CONDITIONS ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SEVERAL SMALLER ITEMS TO TRY TO SORT OUT FOR THE FORECAST. FIRST OFF
WILL BE COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ALLOWING FOR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS ALREADY TAKING PLACE...WITH
ISSUES EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 10 AM BEFORE SUFFICIENT
MIXING OCCURS TO HELP BREAK THINGS UP.

NEXT UP WILL BE ATTEMPT TO ADVECT IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FROM THE NE
AGAINST THE PERSISTENT BUT WEAK SW FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A SUBTLE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM S LK MICHIGAN TO
VICINITY OF FT WAYNE. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH WHAT APPEARS TO
BE A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OR SERIES OF GRAVITY WAVES...HELPED SPARK
SMALL AREAS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SW OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR HIT OR MISS SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVE IF
SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNTIL THE NE FLOW CAN STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS RIDGE INFLUENCE
BRIEFLY RELAXES WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S (LOW 60S
NE). A FEW RUNS OF THE RUC TRY TO BRING THIS DRIER AIR A BIT FASTER
IN NE SECTIONS THAT CURRENTLY DEPICTED. GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF
SLOW...THINK SLOWER IS BETTER AT THIS POINT UNTIL DEGREE OF MIXING
CAN BE DETERMINED. AS A RESULT...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S WITH
HEAT INDICES NEAR OR JUST INTO THE 90S.

NE FLOW WILL PUSH AXIS OF BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO THE SW OF
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS...LEADING TO WHAT SHOULD BE A
PLEASANTLY DRY NIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. HAVE
KEPT A LINGERING SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IN FAR SW AREAS EARLY EVENING
BUT THEN REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER 3Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

STRONG SHRTWV MOVG THROUGH NRN NEVADA THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
MOVG EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. LACK OF FORCING AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO OUR AREA IN THE H925-H85 LAYER DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LWR GRTLKS SUGGESTS DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW
MIXING UP TO NEAR H850 WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE M-U80S.

NRN PLAINS SHRTWV EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO ONTARIO ON MONDAY. RIDGE
OVER THE UPR GRTLKS WILL FLATTEN OUT IN RESPONSE BUT SHOULD HOLD
STRONG IN OUR AREA KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SLOW WARMING TREND AS WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHERLY WITH HIGHS
IN THE U80S/L90S.

ONTARIO SHRTWV EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT AND LIFT ENE INTO QUEBEC TUE
WITH TRAILING CDFNT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OR CLOSE TO NRN
PORTION OF OUR CWA BY WED MORNING. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AND MAY PROPAGATE SE INTO UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA...
BUT CAPPING INVERSION MAKES THIS SCENARIO DOUBTFUL... SO JUST CONTD
WITH LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 AND LOWS NEAR 70.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE WEEK WITH ECMWF/GEM
SUGGESTING NEXT STRONG SHRTWV TO MOVE INTO MEAN WRN TROF WILL
CUT-OFF OVER THE ROCKIES AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST... WHILE GFS
SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO. IN EITHER CASE... LOW POPS
STILL WARRANTED FOR WED-THU... WHILE GFS INDICATES COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GOING FCST AND GIVEN EXCESSIVE UNCERTAINTY
WITH LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES... STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

FOG CAUSING WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS TO GRDLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS AFTN. STNRY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSRA THIS AFTN... HWVR CHANCES
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE EAST TONIGHT... BUT STILL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS IN BR TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT


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