Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 251810 AAA

National Weather Service Jackson KY
110 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

Issued at 1250 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2018

Did a quick update mainly to take out the last of the showers
with the front. Also updated the sky cover and T/Td grids through
the near term per the latest obs and trends. These have been sent
to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshened set of zones
and new HWO.

UPDATE Issued at 1010 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2018

14z sfc analysis and radar imagery show a cold front slicing
through eastern Kentucky. This is represented by a narrow line of
showers and a wind shift to the northwest along with some gusts up
to 30 mph. Clouds cover the area - low in the east and higher in
the west. Meanwhile, readings vary from the mid 40s in the
northwest parts of the area behind the cold front to the mid 50s
in the southeast where southwest winds continue. Dewpoints
likewise, range from the low 40s northwest to the low and mid 50s
east. The rain threat ends with the front passing through during
the next few hours for the JKL CWA with clouds lifting and
breaking up this afternoon from west to east. Temperatures will be
tricky with the CAA battling insolation today - expect some
rebound in the northwest with steady or slowly falling values in
the southeast. Have updated the forecast to linger the thicker
clouds a bit longer into the first part of the afternoon and to
fine tune the temps and dewpoints through the rest of the day.
These updated grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
Will likely issue a fresh set of zones and HWO once the cold front
is through to clear out the shower mentions.

UPDATE Issued at 738 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2018

Widespread rains have shifted to our east and southeast early this
morning, so have let the flood watch expire as scheduled. The
cold front is now just making it in across area, with some
scattered showers developing along it. Some wind gusts to around
30 mph have been noted upstream with the frontal passage, and will
play this up in the HWO through the morning. Have freshened up the
POPs through this morning to account for the timing of the front.
Updates have been sent.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 455 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2018

A surface cold front is currently moving across western Kentucky,
with the main precipitation shield making steady progress to the
east out ahead of the boundary. The leading edge of the more
intense convection has exited eastern Kentucky with mainly
moderate rains following in its wake. Will let the Flood Watch
ride through 7 am, given the ongoing rainfall, but the flood
threat is diminishing and will likely let this expire as

The front will move through the area after 7 am, with gusty west
winds up to 30 mph occurring for a time. Most locations should be
rain-free by around noon, with some clouds hanging on into the
afternoon, as west southwest flow continues aloft. Highs will be
cooler today, ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Tonight into Monday, a mid-level trough axis will dampen as it
heads east from the Plains to the Appalachians. While deeper
moisture will be well southeast of our area, enough lift
associated with upper level support may brush our southeastern
counties with some showers. As such, will hold onto low chance
POPs. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s in the Bluegrass,
to the lower 40s across the southeast. Highs on Monday will be
similar to today, generally around the 60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 455 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2018

The models are in general agreement with a fairly amplified long
wave pattern to continue across the CONUS. Details for the middle
and late work week are still a little murky, but confidence is
increasing on another bout of wet weather from Wednesday through
Thursday for eastern Kentucky.

Ridging will start out across the area, with dry weather expected
Monday night through Tuesday. Moisture will then be on the
increase Tuesday night into Wednesday, as a southern stream short
wave moves across the lower Mississippi Valley. By Thursday, the
northern and southern streams look to phase, with a deepening
area of low pressure moving from the Ohio Valley to the mid-
Atlantic by Friday. This looks to be a more dynamic system,
with widespread precipitation a good bet across eastern Kentucky,
and a potentially very breezy day for Thursday. A decent cool
down will occur behind this system, with temperatures dropping
back closer to normal readings into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)

A cold front is exiting southeast Kentucky and it no longer has
much of a pcpn trace on the radar - look for just the last of the
MVFR ceilings to follow it out of the state over the next couple
of hours. VFR conditions will prevail through the period for all
the TAF sites, though some MVFR cigs and lower vis will be
possible in the far southeast parts late tonight as a wave brushes
by through eastern Tennessee in the pre-dawn hours. West winds
will diminish into this evening, with mainly just some higher
clouds sticking around. Winds will stay light and variable on
Monday as high pressure settles over the area.




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