Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 211108 AAA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
408 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AND MORE FALL-LIKE TODAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND VERY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WARM AND DRY AFTERNOONS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...ON
SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE MOVE QUICKLY OUT
OF AREA. WILL DROP VCSH FROM KWMC AND DROP VCTS FROM KEKO. KEEPING
VCSH AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z WITH TEMPO VRB GUSTY WINDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 237 AM /


SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING,
WITH VERY STRONG DYNAMICS BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN MOST NUMEROUS IN THE EXPECTED AREAS, SUCH AS EASTERN HUMBOLDT
AND NW ELKO COUNTIES. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, AS VERY STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY SUNRISE, USHERING A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS INTO NEVADA. SHORTWAVE EJECTS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MODELS INDICATING VERY FEW IF ANY SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE, AND
REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. DRY FOR ALL ZONES AFTER NOON AS
SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. A COOL REALITY CHECK IS IN STORE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING ABOUT 20 DEGREES FROM
MONDAY`S READINGS. A W/NW BREEZE OF 10-20 MPH WILL ADD TO THE
BRISK CHANGE.

TONIGHT...SEASONABLY COLD, WITH MOST VALLEYS FALLING WELL INTO THE
20S. HOW COLD WE GET WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, AS A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECASTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
COLDEST MET AND MILDER MAV GUIDANCE, WITH MID 20S EXPECTED AT
ELKO/SPRING CREEK.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY AS SW FLOW
RETURNS TO NEVADA. MOST LOCALES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WARMING TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY. SW BREEZES RETURN
WEDNESDAY AT 5-15 MPH, INCREASING FURTHER TO 10-20 MPH ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY, A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL BE
SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MOISTURE FEED
WILL JUST CLIP N/NW NEVADA WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND A FEW SHOWERS ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY.  BT

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS AGREE ON MOVING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN THE FLOW TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE TROF OFFSHORE
DEEPENS AND TRIES TO TURN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT. IT DOES NOT
SUCCEED IN GETTING VERY NEGATIVE BUT DOES MANAGE TO BRING A BIT MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THAN OTHERWISE WOULD BE THE CASE WITH
JUST OVER-THE-SIERRA-CREST-DRY-FLOW. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH MINIMAL EFFECT OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE SMALL TO
INSIGNIFICANT. FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND LOWER POST FRONTAL SPEEDS...BUT SIGNIFICANT
COOLING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA...AND 50 IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
LOWS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...BUT
THICKNESSES DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SNOW PROCESSES. STILL...SNOW
LEVELS MAY DROP TO LOWER THAN 6000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANY PLACE THAT GETS PRECIP WILL LIKELY
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ANYWAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES FROM 12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE
JARBIDGE WILDERNESS GETTING UP TO FOUR INCHES TOTAL. CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY MEDIUM THIS FAR OUT...JUST WANT OUTDOOR WORKERS AND RECREATORS
TO BE AWARE. SLOW WARMING AND RAPID WARMING OCCUR AFTER MONDAY.  BB

AVIATION...VFR AT KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SCT DECKS BELOW 5000 FEET AGL MAY OCCUR AT KEKO BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z TUESDAY FROM VCSH. THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
AROUND THE REGION...DO NOT EXPECT THEM AT FIELDS. WILL INCLUDE VCTS
AT KEKO THROUGH 14Z TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
WEST AND DECREASE TUESDAY NEAR SUNSET. CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES
RAPIDLY AFTER TUESDAY 18Z AT KWMC AND KEKO. ALMOST NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT KELY AND KTPH.  BB

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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