Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 211607
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
807 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING RAIN...PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
&&

.UPDATE...TOOK OUT ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NV THIS
MORNING AS SATELLITE PICS SHOW CLEAR SKIES. ALSO REDUCED CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING OVER ALL THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE FAR
NORTH NEAR THE IDAHO/OREGON BORDER WHERE CLOUDS ARE INCREASING
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.  91
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 156 AM /

SYNOPSIS...A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING RAIN...PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
CUTTING ALONG THE SIERRA-NEVADA MOUNTAIN RANGE THIS MORNING...A
LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. THIS
HAS EVACUATED MOST PRECIPITATION FROM THE LKN CWFA. HOWEVER THERE
IS SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS SPINNING UP FROM THE LOW CENTER AND
FLOWING NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THERE
ARE PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND WITH THE
TROUGH DIGGING DEEPER SOUTH...THERE WILL BE A CALM TODAY THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT STORM ARRIVES.

A VERY STRONG JET STREAM WILL ACCOMPANY THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW ARE
EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. AS THE
STORM MATERIALIZES...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND
WIND GUSTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT CREATING LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW. AROUND ELKO AND SPRING CREEK...BELIEVE WARM AIR
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY OCCURRING LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS LOCATIONS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST IN HUMBOLDT...LANDER...EUREKA AND WHITE
PINE COUNTIES...MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FLASH FREEZE AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW...BUT DID NOT ADD ANY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WOULD LIKE TO GO ANOTHER SHIFT OR SO
BEFORE PULLING THAT TRIGGER GIVEN THAT THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE
LATER SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

GREAT TRAVEL WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA FOR THANKSGIVING...

ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ELKO COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY,
WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUITE CHILLY, WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION HOLDING MOST VALLEYS IN THE 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD. 00Z ECMWF PLACES A 1039 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE RUBY MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING, SO SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMONPLACE WHERE THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE
CIRRUS.

ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS FALLEN INTO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL DRAMATICALLY LOSING ITS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED STORM NEXT
WEEK. IT HAS BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE THIS FORECASTER HAS SEEN SUCH A
RELIABLE MODEL AS THE ECMWF, MAKE SUCH A DRAMATIC CHANGE. GFS/ECMWF
NOW BOTH BUILD IN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AGGRESSIVELY TUESDAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. AS SUCH, DRAMATIC CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE LONG TERM
GRIDS. REDUCED OR ELIMINATED ALL POPS, REDUCED SKY COVER, DECREASED
WINDS, AND RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. SOME VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP
UNDER THE RIDGE WITH THE WEAK SOLAR ANGLE, BUT NOW EXPECT EXCELLENT
WEATHER IN THE GREAT BASIN FOR THIS THANKSGIVING. BT

AVIATION...VFR AND DRY THROUGH 00Z SAT. CLOUDS DECREASE THIS
MORNING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. AFTER 18Z, MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER AS NEXT STORM APPROACHES. -SHRA WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA 00-12Z SAT, IMPACTING KWMC/KEKO WITH CIGS LOWERING
TO 3-4K FT, HIGH END MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. DEGRADED FLYING CONDITIONS
12-18Z SAT AT KWMC/KEKO WITH -RA AND MVFR CIGS. -SHRA MORE SCT
NEAR/NORTH OF KTPH/KELY.

EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA 18Z SAT-00Z
SUN, WITH IFR/LIFR MOST LIKELY AT KEKO. AT KWMC/KEKO, RA/SN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WEST WINDS SAT, 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 45
KTS. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

$$

92/99/99



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