Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 051201

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
401 AM PST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Cold air is filtering into the state from the
northwest under a series of weak waves. Showers will continue off
and off through the week over much of the region from US Highway
50 to the north. Temperatures will cool off again to below normal.
Biggest snow accumulations in the mountains with much smaller
amounts the valleys.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday. Weak wave moving southeast
across northern Nevada with light snow or flurries over mostly
northeast Nevada early Monday morning. No accumulation expected in
populated areas in the valleys below about 6500 feet. Models have
backed off total amounts for the short term period with a couple
inches total in most valley south to Highway 50 and mostly nothing
south of that. Mountains get perhaps 3-4 inches in the elevations
above about 8000 feet. With continued injection of colder air and
small waves to keep it coming, expect high temps to drop from the
30s and 40s today to the 20s and 30s Wednesday. Lows in the
singles and teens tonight...down to the singles and even below
zero Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through next Monday. An abrupt
transition to a ridging pattern is expected Wednesday and
Wednesday night ahead of the next Pacific storm system.
Temperatures will steadily warm under a west to southwest flow in
under the ridge which will impact snow levels considerably
Thursday into Friday as an atmospheric river pattern sets up
across northern CA. A potential for a short freezing drizzle/rain
event in northwestern NV is possible Wednesday night to around
dawn Thursday morning. Temperatures in the valleys of western
Humboldt county Wednesday night will remain below freezing. This
combined with steady warming around 750mb and intrusion of deeper
moisture will result in a favorable setup for freezing rain.
However, precip could arrive a bit later Thursday morning
resulting in a cold rain but situation needs to be monitored
either way.

Atmospheric river scenario is expected to stream ample moisture
into northern Nevada for an extended period for the later half of
this week. However, persistent westerly flow will prevent
intrusion of colder air into the region Thursday through much of
Saturday so expect more valley rain/wintry mix for this upcoming
event as low-levels remain relatively warm compared to the last
few winter disturbances.

A cold start early Thursday morning will quickly change with
temperatures rising above freezing for virtually all of the CWA by
Thursday afternoon and certainly by Friday with temperatures
ranging from the middle 30s to the upper 40s. Slightly colder air
makes it back into the state for the weekend.

Winds will not be too much of a problem but could be a bit gusty
Thursday and Thursday night.


.AVIATION...Light snow showers moving through north-central NV will
impact KEKO for the next few hours and possibly KELY later this
morning resulting in brief MVFR conditions. Accumulations should
be minimal. Mountain obscurations for all but KTPH will be present
through the early morning hours but improving en route conditions
are expected later today. Winds will be relatively light except at
KTPH where afternoon gusts could reach 25 kts from the northwest.




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