Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 230905
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
205 AM PDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE SILVER STATE. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHERN NEVADA THURSDAY...THEN
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TO ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA BY
FRIDAY. SOME VALLEY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE COOLER THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEVADA BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST TO NORTHERN UTAH. THE NEGATIVE TILT OF THE
EXITING TROUGH HAS LEFT A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OF THE GREAT BASIN.
AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ENTERS THE PACIFIC COASTAL REGION...THERE IS
A SUBSTANTIALLY DENSE MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECK OVER RENO MOVING
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LKN CWFA. THUS CLEARING WILL NOT
OCCUR DESPITE THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERALL. THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN IS DEPICTED SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS HOWEVER THEY ARE STILL
HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THIS WEEK.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
STATE. THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL ALLOW DIRT TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...THUS CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE VALLEYS IS NOT EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S TODAY...AND
REACH INTO THE 60S WIDESPREAD THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DROP DOWN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. DESPITE THE ERRATIC TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF PRECIPITATION ONSET...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR
A SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BE SCOOPED UP AND SLUNG
OVER THE STATE BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW RE-CENTERS NEAR SAN
FRANCISCO AT THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS
DEPICTED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AND MODEL QPF IS SIGNIFICANT. AN
EXTREMELY BROAD 80 KT JET FIELD WILL CROSS OVER THE STATE WHICH
WILL ENHANCE PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION OVER A WIDE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY
HOLD ABOVE 5500 FEET HOWEVER A BRIEF BLAST OF SNOW BELOW THAT
LEVEL IS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS.
MOUNTAINS SHOULD BENEFIT GREATLY AND IMPACTS ON HIGHWAY OVERPASSES
SHOULD BE BRIEF. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...OCCURRING EARLY IN THE DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH
OF EASTERN NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. UNSEASONABLY
COLD SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

00Z GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT FORECASTING AN INTENSE UPPER LOW TO
DIVE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE FRIDAY EVENING, WITH A
WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION AXIS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
THE SE ZONES. ECMWF SUGGESTS HEAVY WET SNOW MAY FALL FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ELKO, WHITE PINE, SE EUREKA
AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES. FRONTOGENESIS FORCING FROM GFS MIRRORS
THESE SAME ZONES. INCREASED RAIN/SNOW COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY, USING 00Z MEX/MRA AS GUIDANCE, AND SWITCHED TO A
STRATIFORM DEPICTION OF THE PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST
FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH THE COLDEST AIR AND COLDEST TIME OF DAY,
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
ON PASSES/SUMMITS AND ELEVATED/VEGETATED SURFACES. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING, WITH NO SCHOOL AND LIMITED COMMUTING, SO
THIS SHOULD WORK AGAINST ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME VALLEYS IN
AND NEAR WHITE PINE COUNTY MAY TALLY UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES, AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED BY FUTURE SHIFTS.

SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE, MOVING TO THE GRAND CANYON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
UNSEASONABLY COLD OF COURSE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, STUCK IN THE 40S,
WITH A FEW LOWER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES.

OVERRUNNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
SUNDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.
TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT INTO THE 50S, HELD BACK BY THICK CLOUDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEVADA STRONGLY, WITH
DRY WEATHER AND A RAPID WARMING TREND. BT

&&

.AVIATION...MUCH IMPROVED FLYING WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TO ALL TERMINALS, WITH MUCH LESS WIND COMPARED TO TUESDAY.
VFR WITH SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS. AFTER 18Z, SW WINDS AT 10-20 KTS AT
KWMC/KEKO AND NW WINDS AT 10-20 KTS AT KELY/KTPH. BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/99/99





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