Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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453
FXUS65 KLKN 251041
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
341 AM PDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system will continue moving through the state
today, bringing mainly valley rain and mountain snow. A lull in
the weather pattern is expected late tonight through early Sunday
however another system will begin moving into the Great Basin by
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday. Temperatures are mild this
morning thus far and are slowly working their way down into the
30s. Its raining in Elko and Tonopah and a weakly defined back
edge of precipitation can be inferred on radar stretching from
northwest Nye County to Wildhorse in northern Elko County. Light
showers are occurring east of that line. There are two distinct
troughs to move through the Great Basin in the short term period
and the models are in pretty good synchronization.

Today through this evening. The current trough axis will slowly
move through the Great Basin and the moist flow will continue to
shift south. There is a very strong QPF signal over northeast Nye
and White Pine Counties between 12z and 18z as the moist flow is
able to punch through south of the Sierras. Winter Weather
Advisories have been in effect for the Ruby Mountains and White
Pine County above 7000 feet. There will be some accumulation below
that level however surface temperatures will minimize the hazard.
Colder temperatures are noted across southern Eureka County with a
strong band of precipitation. Moderate rain has continued at Tonopah
for several hours...up to a couple tenths of precipitation there.
Added southern Lander/Eureka Counties above 6500 feet to the
Winter Weather Advisory mix through 18z this morning. Also added
Advisories to all of northern Nye County above 7000 feet.
Northwest Nye expires at 18z, northwest expires at 00z this
afternoon. High temperatures will generally be in the 40s to
around 50 degrees.

Midnight tonight through Sunday morning. This should be a dry
period. The trough is expected to make a clean exit, replaced by a
short wave albeit low-amplitude ridge. It is possible to see some
showers creeping into western Humboldt county before noon Sunday.
Low temperatures will generally be in the 20s.

Sunday afternoon through Monday. The next storm system will blast
through the Great Basin. Showers will spread across the state.
This third storm is also looking much like the previous two. Not
to much concern for valley snow accumulation. High temperatures
will generally range from the 40s to around 50 degrees. Low
temperatures will generally be in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday. Overall model
agreement improved from previous runs. Active pattern continues
through at least Thursday. Thereafter, dry and quiet conditions
are expected.

Models continue to show a faster, more progressive upper level
low that will exit the area late Monday night/early Tuesday
morning. The wrap-around/deformation zone from the system in the
beginning of the period is not as pronounce as previous runs,
therefore scaled back pops Monday night.

Ridge moves in for Tuesday with stable and drier air and have
taken out pops. Temperatures should rebound slightly on Tuesday
to near to slightly below average, with another bump on Wednesday
as the ridge maintains across the state.

Beyond Wednesday, models are beginning to struggle with the next
system. The ECMWF breaks down the ridge faster than the GFS and
moves the next upper level low through the area Wed night,
continuing into Thur. Meanwhile the GFS maintains a ridge through
Thursday before moving the upper low through the area Thur
afternoon. Have kept pops for Thur and trended pops to linger
later into Fri. Regardless of the solution, models agree that
much colder air aloft will work back into the area towards the end
of the week. This will lower the snow levels and increase chance
of mix precipitation, or even all snow to reach the valley floor
by Thursday night. In addition, agreement remains that some
instability will develop ahead of the cold front in the afternoon
and thunderstorms can not be ruled at this time, mainly across
northern Elko County.

Thereafter, long wave ridge builds back into the area from the
southwest, which shifts the storm track much further north. As
for winds, no advisory or warning level winds expected. Breezy
conditions (northerly winds) expected Tuesday and Friday due to a
semi-tight north-south gradient. Winds could also be gusty due to
frontal passage Thursday, especially around any convection.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGs have improved over northern Nevada, including WMC
and EKO and will remain VFR through the day. Across southern and
central Nevada, the main precipitation band continues to push west
to east. TPH will continue to see MVFR ceilings this morning,
improving to VFR CIGs by mid morning. ELY will drop to MVFR
conditions this morning as rain moves through and improve by
midday to VFR conditions. There is a potential that ELY could see
a brief RASN mix this morning if the precipitation should come
down heavy enough.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Two storm systems today and early next week will
bring more valley rain and mountain snow. The rainfall could
exacerbate flooding issues and there will be another storm late
next week. Rivers and creeks will likely continue to run strong
with the additional runoff.

Flood warnings are in effect for the following areas:

Bruneau River: Minor flooding continues with moderate flooding
possible today.

Humboldt River - Carlin: Minor flooding is occurring.

Humboldt River - Palisade: Minor flooding continues.

Humboldt River - Battle Mountain: Moderate flooding continues.

Humboldt River - Comus: Moderate flooding continues.

Marys River: Minor flooding is occurring.

All other monitored creeks and rivers are below minor flood stage.
River Statements have been issued for the following areas:

Martin Creek near Paradise Valley and Salmon Falls Creek near
Jackpot.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
Northeastern Nye County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range-White
Pine County.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for
Northwestern Nye County-Southern Lander County and Southern
Eureka County.

&&

$$

92/84/84



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