Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 191742
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
942 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AFTER A
BREAK ON SATURDAY MORNING...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING, TO RAISE
POPS TO LIKELY/DEFINITE, LOWER SNOW LEVELS, AND ADD A MENTION OF
SMALL SNOW ACCUMULATION TO MOST VALLEYS. 12Z NAM/GFS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND SE ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING. IR SATELLITE IS IMPRESSIVE, WITH
COLD CLOUDS AND RICH PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH SNOW IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING, CURRENTLY DO NOT SEE
THE NEED FOR AN IMPACT-BASED ADVISORY, AS MOST LOCATIONS ARE
ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S. AS SUCH, ROADWAYS WILL REMAIN
WET. THAT SAID, MODELS AGREE THAT THICKNESS WILL BE NEAR 546 DM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, COLD ENOUGH TO GET SNOW DOWN TO MOST
VALLEY FLOORS.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY LATE THIS EVENING.

TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 324 AM /

SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW
TO MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN CA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO
NORTHWESTERN NV THIS MORNING SPREADING INTO NORTHEASTERN NV THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS NEAR 4500 FEET THIS MORNING WILL RISE TO
NEAR 6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO UTAH TONIGHT
WITH MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN NV FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE MOVING
OVER TOP OF RIDGE INTO NORTHERN NV WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 50. WITH THE MILDER PACIFIC AIR
SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO 6000-6500 FEET NORTH AND NEARLY 7000 FEET
ACROSS CENTRAL NV. AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV ON SUNDAY PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
NORTHEAST NV WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO OVER 7000 FEET.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST RESULTS IN
RELATIVELY WARM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
MOUNTAINS. RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY TUESDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING MORE ZONAL OVER NEVADA. DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LAST WARM DAY WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CHANGE OVER TO COLDER AND MORE
MOIST CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AS GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN
CHANGES AND AS SUCH NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME IN SNOW AMOUNTS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A COOL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. IF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE HOLDS UP...SHOULD
HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT FRIDAY.

AVIATION...SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL
BRING RAIN AND OR SNOW TO KWMC THIS MORNING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS REACH
KEKO IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MOST IF NOT ALL
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE SNOW. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER FROM NW TO
SE INTO THE EVENING...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS
WILL END BEFORE REACHING KTPH OR KELY.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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