Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 222230

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
230 PM PST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A series of winter storms will affect the region through
the weekend. Temperatures will remain well below normal and snow
showers will move periodically over the state. Travel may be
affected from time to time.


.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday.

Long wave trough over the western US with various short waves
digging over the Great Basin through the short term period. The
worst of these appears to be right now through Friday morning. Then
a brief respite from the precip but remaining below normal cold
through Sunday with intermittent showers through the period. The
pattern seems persistent but individual elements within the greater
trough are quite progressive. Result is that massive amounts of snow
will not fall, but small amounts will accumulate over time. Travel
problems have resulted in issuing a winter weather advisory earlier
this morning and this has been extended to cover most of northern
Nevada through 18z Friday. While huge amounts will not fall, flash
freeze on partially melted road cover warrants an impact based
advisory. Winds will not cause drifting or blowing of the relatively
dry snow, but will cause uncomfortable wind chills sometimes.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Thursday.

Confidence remains high that a generally cold and occasionally
snowy pattern will continue across northern and central Nevada
through next week. A series of progressive shortwave troughs
embedded within the northwest to north flow aloft, will rotate
through, but eventually slow and dig more into the large upper
trough over the western CONUS by the end of next week. Model
ensembles indicate this pattern could continue into early March.

Both the GFS and EC models are in good agreement that a
progressive open shortwave trough will sweep across northern and
central Nevada Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning
providing another round of light valley and moderate mountain snow
showers. This will be a fairly quick hitting system that
approaches from the interior of Oregon and Idaho and could provide
a marginal Winter Weather Advisory threat at best.

More active weather will quickly follow as another shortwave
trough with more in the way of energy and moisture will track
south, but farther west, along the Pacific Northwest coast into
California early next week. This storm system is a better
candidate to produce widespread light/moderate valley to
moderate/locally heavy mountain snows from early Monday morning in
the north, until Tuesday afternoon in east central areas
lingering around Great Basin National Park.

There will be a chance of a few light snow showers later
Wednesday into Thursday mainly in far northwest and northern
Nevada along the Oregon and Idaho borders as lead moisture from
the Pacific Northwest heralds a larger and stronger shortwave
trough/upper low that is forecast to develop off the coasts of
Washington and Oregon that will likely impact more of Nevada late
next week into the following weekend.


.AVIATION...CIGs will vary between MVFR and VFR at KWMC and KEKO
in the wake of the cold front passage with a few lingering light
snow showers or flurries (VCSH) possible through this Thursday
evening. More widespread VFR conditions will gradually return
by Friday morning.

Snow showers associated with the cold front will impact KELY, and
to a lesser extent KTPH, with MVFR to intermittent IFR conditions
between 20z Thursday and 06Z Friday. Surface winds will gust to
around 20 kts ahead of the front this afternoon and evening while
post-frontal northwest to north winds could gust over 30 kts at
KTPH on Friday.


Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for Humboldt
County-Northern Elko County-Northern Lander County and Northern
Eureka County-Southwestern Elko County.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for South Central
Elko County.



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