Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 221000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
300 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm today,
tonight and into Wednesday. Hotter and drier weather returns by
the end of the week with above normal temperatures expected
through early next week.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday

Upper level low is spinning off of the California coast and a
frontal boundary is moving up from the south, drawing some fairly
good moisture up with it. Some light showers are currently
ongoing across mostly central Nevada, though a few returns on the
radar are showing up in Elko County, but they are likely not
reaching the ground.

Showers will continue in central Nevada through the morning hours.
Model soundings indicate PW`s of .85-1.00 inches exist in this
area. This boundary and its moisture will be moving northward
throughout the day today and convection will be increasing after
the noon hour as heating begins to expand convection. In the late
afternoon/early evening the convection moves into northern
Nevada, with the greatest amount of convection expected in
southern portions of Elko County and westward where PW`s around
.90 inches are forecast to exist.

The cloud cover and showers will drop high temperatures some this
afternoon, though likely not as much in northern counties since
there will be more time to heat up early in the afternoon with
more breaks in the clouds.

Models still very consistent with nocturnal convection continuing
tonight, especially in northern Nevada.

On Wednesday, the moisture boundary looks to remain in northern
Nevada, with highest PWs closer to the Idaho border. Further
south the PW`s drop to the .60-.75 inch range. So it is looking
like afternoon thunderstorms will be drier and more isolated as
you get further south. More extensive cloud cover leftover from
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning convection should prevent
temperatures from reaching their potential on Wednesday, keeping
temperatures mainly in the 80`s. It may also limit convection
during the afternoon.

LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday. A dry westerly flow
will push moisture out of all but far northern Elko county on
Thursday and Friday. By Saturday even this moisture will be pushed
out of the region for dry conditions across all of northern and
central NV. With upper high building across the area temps will be
above normal Friday through the weekend with a few of the warmest
spots climbing into the upper 90s.


AVIATION...Moisture and instability will bring isolated to
scattered thunderstorms mainly this afternoon and evening with the
best coverage across north central NV.



Some morning showers over central Nevada zones will begin to
increase late in the morning/early afternoon and isolated
thunderstorms are expected to develop. Later in the afternoon,
thunderstorms will likely expand in coverage in central Nevada and
begin moving into northern Nevada through the evening. These
should be at least a mixture of wet and dry storms. The biggest
concern is for Wednesday as the drying aloft should yield more
dry than wet thunderstorms across 469 and 470. Coverage is still a
concern as well as cloud cover inhibition, but the watch has been
continued for further evaluation later today. All other zones
should see some dry thunderstorms Wednesday as well, but coverage
will likely be isolated.


Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for Eastern Elko County-Southwestern and Central Elko



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