Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 262158
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
258 PM PDT THU MAY 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Moisture and instability will keep the threat of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast across eastern and
central Nevada through the Memorial Day Weekend. High pressure will
mark a return to the region Monday and Tuesday, bringing warming
temperatures to all of northern and central Nevada.
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday. Isolated to scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed across the
forecast area today. Storm motion has generally been from north to
south at around 10 mph.
For tonight, expect the showers to gradually wane in areal
coverage. Models are showing some clearing across the north and
central, and so have added patchy fog once again for portions of
Elko and Lander/Eureka counties for tomorrow morning. Overnight
lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Winds will be light.
Friday and Friday night, northwest flow will remain over the
forecast area. Isolated showers with a rumble of thunder will be
possible over mainly the eastern portions of Elko, along with
White Pine and northern Nye counties. Winds will be mainly out of
the west and northwest at about 10 to 15 mph with some occasional
gusts to 20 mph. Overall highs for tomorrow will be in the mid 50s
in the north along the Idaho border to the low 70s in the central
part of the forecast area. Not too much is expected during the
evening and overnight hours on Friday with lows dropping down
into the mid 30s to mid 40s.
On Saturday through Sunday. Model solutions show a weak impulse
moving through the flow during this time frame. This will help to
generate a few showers and thunderstorms during this time. For
Saturday, the areal coverage is expected to be in the central part
of the CWA, and by Sunday, the activity is expected to extend
north to portions of Elko and Lander/Eureka counties. Afternoon
highs will begin to moderate some with readings climbing into the
low to upper 60s on Saturday and mid 60s to mid 70s on Sunday,
with the coolest readings in the north along the Idaho border.
Overnight lows will be in the mid 30s to low 40s. Winds are
expected to remain light.
.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday.
Pattern and Confidence: Medium to long range progs are finally
showing the upper level trough giving way to upper level ridging
by around Tuesday. What this will mean for northern and central
Nevada is temperatures actually climbing to above normal levels
after the Tuesday time frame.
Sensible Weather and Potential Impacts:
Temperatures (averages for this time of year are: highs in the low
to upper 70s for most locales; lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s):
- Forecast afternoon high temperatures will increase each afternoon
as high pressure builds in for the week. This will result in
readings going above normal by the end of the long term period,
with readings in the upper 70s to low 80s at many locales.
- Overnight lows will be at or slightly above normal, with readings
in the low 30s to low 40s each morning.
- Monday - Breezy winds during the afternoon in the north.
- Tuesday and Wednesday - expect light afternoon winds during
- Thursday afternoon could see breezy conditions for White Pine
and northern Nye Counties, with light winds expected to
continue for the rest of the region.
Precipitation and Obscuration:
- For Monday, the best chances for isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be in the eastern sections of Elko, White
Pine, and portions of northern Nye counties. Rainfall is
expected to be light.
- Tuesday through Thursday, there are some minor differences
in where the model simulations are setting up the center of
the ridge. Have kept ghost pops in for this period.
.AVIATION...Look for VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Some
evening VCSH will be possible near the KEKO and KELY TAF sites. Will
add VCFG to KEKO during the early morning hours tomorrow, with low CIG
of 010 at KELY during the morning. Some minor gusts to 25KT tomorrow
afternoon. Isold -TSRA possible in the afternoon over KELY.