Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 302155
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
155 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PARTS
OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A CLEARING AND WARMING TREND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR SKIES NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SE CA THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIKE THE HRRR WAS SUGGESTING EARLIER...SO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF LA COUNTY AND PARTS
OF VENTURA COUNTY. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER-LOW
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES LINGERING OVER THE SAN
GABRIELS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SALINAS VALLEY AGAIN
TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON THE LA
COAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS A WEAK EDDY SPINS UP.

NE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE AND A RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
CA...SETTING UPPER NE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE THE NE WINDS WILL PEAK
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT PLANNING ON PUTTING ANY WIND
ADVISORIES OUT AT THIS TIME...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. RIGHT NOW JUST EXPECTING
SOME ISOLATED NE GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE LA MOUNTAINS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH FEWER CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW...WITH FURTHER WARMING ON SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S TO THE UPPER 70S FOR
THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SLIGHT COOLING POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS A LITTLE...BUT OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...

NOT MUCH WEATHER TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG RANGE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE RIDGE
BUILDS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO TAKE A RUN
AT THE CENTRAL COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A RIDGE DEVELOPS
AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO THE CENTRAL COAST FOR FRIDAY IF THE LATEST ECMWF IS RIGHT. FOR
NOW KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA
WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE NORTH BY 31/07Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH WINDS BECOME MODERATE NORTHEAST AFTER 31/20Z.
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 31/06Z.
FREEZING LEVEL WAS AROUND 8KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER LITTLE
SATURDAY MORNING. MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH
31/08Z AND AFTER 31/19Z OTHERWISE WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT. NO MARINE
INVERSION THIS MORNING AND A WEAK INVERSION IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUD
TOPS NEAR 2KFT SATURDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS NONE.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
31/03Z AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 30/21Z. THERE
IS A CHANCE CIGS 015 BETWEEN 31/13-31/19Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
31/08Z AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 30/22Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...30/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WIND AND SEAS AROUND
10 FEET FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL FROM 10-60 NM AND FROM THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA ORIENTED
BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE FETCH AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

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