698
FXUS66 KLOX 102110
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
210 PM PDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...10/126 PM.

A quiet weather pattern is expected through early next week with
near normal temperatures and no rain except possibly some light
showers over the mountains this afternoon. Increasing night and
morning low clouds are expected across coast and valleys as
onshore flow increases. Mostly minor day to day changes in
temperatures are expected through Sunday, then cooling possible
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...10/145 PM.

Some cumulus is forming over the mountains this afternoon from an
upper low over southwest NV. Thunderstorms have been active over
the southern Sierra but so far nothing threatening over the local
mountains. May still get a light shower over the mountains but
moisture is limited and stability parameters aren`t as favorable
as areas to the northeast.

Otherwise, more of the same for southwest California. Marine layer
has finally filled in along the Central Coast and has been very
slow to clear elsewhere along the coast. Onshore trends to north
and especially the east are likely the culprit and we may be
looking at several more days of this coming up. There is a little
weak upper ridge that will follow the current trough later
Saturday into Sunday that may result in some brief lowering of the
marine layer depth and allow for earlier clearing and a few
degrees of warming, but subtle changes like are always low
confidence, and given the time of year and the upper pattern it`s
more likely low clouds will be a mainstay for awhile, with some
days struggling to clear at the beaches, especially from Malibu
north.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...10/208 PM.

The next weak upper low that arrives later this weekend is
expected to linger through Wednesday, leading to a slow decline in
daytime temperatures and likely a deeper, farther inland, and
slower clearing marine layer. Models have also been consistent
showing increasing onshore flow to the east during this period.
The NAEFS gradients table shows around a half degree of increase
each day through May 18, though the deterministic GFS shows a
sharp decline starting next Thursday and actually turning lightly
offshore next weekend. Very low confidence in this though as the
global models are showing a much slower weakening trend in the
gradients, which would go along with the upper level grand
ensemble mean pattern showing a weak trough over the area later
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...10/2010Z.

At 2000Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1800 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3100 feet with a max temperature of 19 C.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in TAFs. Timing of mid-day
dissipation of CIGs for coastal/valley sites could be +/- 2 hours
of current forecast. For tonight, high confidence in return of
CIG/VSBY restrictions for sites south of Point Conception and
moderate confidence for KSMX. However, only moderate confidence in
timing of return.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of dissipation of
MVFR CIGs could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast. For tonight,
high confidence in return of MVFR CIGS and return to VFR
conditions by Saturday afternoon, but only moderate confidence in
timing (could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast). There is also a
40% chance for periods of IFR ceilings to develop. No significant
easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of dissipation of
MVFR CIGs could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast. For tonight,
high confidence in return of MVFR CIGS, but only moderate
confidence in timing (could be +/- 2 hours of current 06Z
forecast).

&&

.MARINE...10/110 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Saturday night, high confidence in winds
and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For
Sunday through Monday night, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA
winds. Otherwise, SCA conditions are not expected through
Wednesday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast as winds and seas are expected to remain below
SCA levels through Wednesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday, winds and seas
will remain below SCA levels for most areas. The only exception
will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there
is a 30-40% chance of SCA winds Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RAT/Cohen
MARINE...RAT/Cohen
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox