Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 271155
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. WIND
SHELTERED AREAS WILL REMAIN CHILLY AT NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION
FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH MORE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
OFFSHORE EVENT IS UNDERWAY WITH LOW END ADVISORY GUSTS OVER ABOUT
HALF THE ADVISORY AREA AND WITH GRADIENTS OFFSHORE AND TRENDING
OFFSHORE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS OVER
THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. THE COLD DRY AIRMASS IS ALLOW GOOD COOLING IN
AREAS WHERE THE WINDS ARE NOT BLOWING AND FROST...FREEZE AND HARD
FREEZE WARNINGS LOOK GOOD. OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGING WILL KEEP SKIES
SUNNY BUT THE COLD AIRMASS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS BLO NORMAL DESPITE
THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

OVERNIGHT...THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS SO THE
WINDS WILL DECREASE. STILL COLD AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST OR FREEZE
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR VLYS
AND THE OJAI VALLEY AGAIN.

SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY AND SKIES WILL TURN PARTLY
CLOUDY. HGTS RISE A LITTLE AND MAX TEMPS WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
BUT WILL STILL BE BLO NORMAL.

BY MONDAY AN EXTRAORDINARILY LARGE WEST COAST TO EAST COAST SPANNING
TROF SETS UP OVER THE NATION. CALIFORNIA WILL BE UNDER FAST MOVING
NW FLOW. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THIS FLOW
TO KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE MAY BE A DEGREE OF COOLING BUT
FOR THE MOST PART TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
ON MONDAY NIGHT A SHOT OF ENERGY MOVES INTO WESTERN PART OF THE
LARGE TROF AND KICKS IT OUT TO THE WEST AND INTO CALIFORNIA. THE EC
AND THE GFS NOW AGREE THAT THE UPPER LOW THAT EVENTUALLY FORMS IN
OVER RENO WILL MOVE OUTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL VLY AND WILL THEN
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE STATE OVER ERN L.A. COUNTY
THEN INTO RIVERSIDE AND THEN WILL EXIT OVER NEEDLES. THIS IS THE
MOST BENIGN TRACK THAT THE STORM COULD TAKE. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
RAIN THIS LOW PRODUCES WILL BE SOUTH OF LA COUNTY AND THERE WILL NOT
BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT AND THE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT.
INCREASED THE POPS FOR LA COUNTY AND DECREASES THE FOR SLO COUNTY.
GREATLY REDUCED THE WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SNOW MAY BE THE BIG
STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG SNOW
MAKER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL HAVE VERY LOW SNOW LEVELS AND
TUESDAY NIGHT THE ANTELOPE VLY SHOULD GET A DUSTING OF SNOW. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MANY DEGREES BLO NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
CHILLY. THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST BUT THE CANADIAN
MDL IS SLOWER WITH A MORE WESTERLY AND THUS WETTER TRACK.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE THURSDAY FRIDAY FORECAST BUT AS THINGS STAND
NOW THURSDAY SHOULD BE BREEZY COOL AND DRY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE
SUNNY LESS WINDY AND WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1150Z

AT 1145Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION AT KLAX.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
AFFECT L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
LOCAL LLWS AND MDT UDDF.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF NELY WINDS REACHING 8 TO 10
KNOTS THIS MORNING 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS COULD
SURFACE BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...27/345 AM PST...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR GUSTY NE
WINDS ACROSS THE INNER WATERS FROM VENTURA TO POINT MUGU AND OUT TO
SANTA CRUZ ISLAND...AND FROM POINT MUGU TO SAN MATEO POINT OUT TO
CATALINA ISLAND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FROST ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...RAT

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