Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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984
FXUS66 KLOX 102202
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
155 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER TODAYS RECORD HEAT... TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL INTO THIS
WEEKEND BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-FRI)

ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST AND FROM SANTA BARBARA NORTHWARD HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT
LOCATIONS INLAND AND SOUTH... ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS... ARE A
BIT WARMER TODAY.  THIS SHOULD BE THE PEAK HEAT DAY AND ALL
LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLIP COOLER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.  LOS
ANGELES COUNTY SITES WILL SLIP SLOWLY.

SOME CLOUDINESS AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOULD FEEL NOTABLY COOLER.  WITH THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH OVERNIGHT SO THE
MORNINGS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CHILLY.

.LONG TERM...(SUN-TUE)

DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE PASSING TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY MAY BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE PAST WEEK OR IT MAY BE A
FAIR BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE
REGION.  EITHER WAY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WILL HAVE
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES.

THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT BUILD IN AS STRONGLY AS IT HAD BEEN PRIOR
TO THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  THIS WILL MAKE IT EASIER FOR THE NEXT TROUGH
TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH AND IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY.  THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST AND DEEP THE NEXT
SYSTEM GOES... OR HOW WELL IT CONNECTS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
STREAM... BUT THERE IS A LEGITIMATE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE SOUTHLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY / THURSDAY TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK.  IT
MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLIGHT PRECIPITATION BUT IT IS A GLIMMER
OF HOPE FOR NOW.  AND POSSIBLY A GLIMMER OF A WEAKENING RIDGE
OVERALL THAT COULD INDICATE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.  AS PHIL
CONNERS (GROUNDHOG DAY) SAYS... ANY CHANGE IS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...10/1800Z

AT 1800Z...AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP ALL SITES VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU 18Z TAF. EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 7 KTS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...10/125 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH CURRENT FORECAST. BY
FRIDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AS A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER
WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN PORTION.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. FOR
THE WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDIITONS AS NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND LARGE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
MOVES IN. FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...MUNROE

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



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