Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 030050 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
550 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW FOR A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE COAST
AND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS OF VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
WARMUP NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW WEAKENS.

 &&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...

ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY TODAY WITH MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND SKIES
THAT CLEARED FOR AFTERNOON SUN OTHER THAN AT THE VARIOUS NEARBY
ISLANDS.  WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH THE INVERSION SHOULD DEEPEN
DURING THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS AND ALLOW A DEEPER PENETRATION OF THE
MARINE INTRUSION INTO SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL LIKELY
SLOW THE DIMINISHMENT OF THE CLOUDS EACH MORNING.  BUT OTHER THAN
THAT AND A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE DOWN THE COAST AND THEN OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE ON THURSDAY AND ON FRIDAY.  WITH IT WILL COME A
CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE FROM THE MARINE CLOUDS BOTH OFFSHORE AND ONSHORE
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN.  THIS
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHT ENOUGH IN ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION NOT TO PUT IT INTO THE FORECAST BUT A BETTER CHANCE THAT A
FEW DROPS WILL FALL SOMEWHERE... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.

SKIES WILL BE CLOUDIER ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE TRAVERSING LOW AND ANY
MARINE INTRUSION WILL LINGER LONGER DUE TO THE REDUCED SOLAR
HEATING.  THE MOISTURE FROM THE ANDRES REMNANTS CONTINUE TO APPEAR
TO BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE AN IMPACT ON WEATHER IN THE SERVICE AREA.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...

CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
INSTABILITY AND WIND FLOW SUCH THAT CLOUD BUILD UPS WILL FORM OVER
THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS.  NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR
THE AREA BUT AS THE LOW SHIFTS SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IT
MAY SHIFT AN INCREASED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA SUCH THAT
SOME SHOWERS MAY FORM SATURDAY NIGHT.  TIMING IS THE ISSUE FOR THIS
TO OCCUR.

SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY BY LATE
SATURDAY AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  A WEAK TROPHINESS WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION THOUGH SO TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BUT
NOT BECOME HOT.  THE MARINE INTRUSION WILL CONTINUE AND THE
CONDITIONS NEXT TUESDAY COULD BE SIMILAR TO THE CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...02/0050Z.

AT 0000Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS BASED AROUND 1200 FEET.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF
19 DEGREES CELSIUS.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD INTO COASTAL AND VALLEY TERMINALS THROUGH
13Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

KLAX...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO KLAX BETWEEN 05Z AND
08Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 05Z AND 06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS 18Z OR AS LATE AS 20Z.

KBUR...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO KLAX BETWEEN 08Z AND
11Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z.
VFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS SOON AS 16Z OR AS LATE AS 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...02/200 PM...

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TODAY...AND REMAINING AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AND SWITCH TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ANDRES BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF MALIBU
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...KJ
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...STU

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